Keith Sanchez· Apr 6, 2026
As relayed by Harrison, Sanchez's latest mock draft has Carnell Tate going to Washington, Jordan Tyson as the first receiver off the board at No. 5 to the Giants, Makai Lemmon at 11 and Chris Brasel at 30 to Miami, Sonny Styles at No. 8 to New Orleans, and Caleb Downs at No. 13 to the Rams.
“Carnell Tate is who they picked for the Washington commanders there.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Commanders (podcast) · read the original →
7 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 73.1 out of 100, against 44.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
positional finish1They said
2What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Jordyn Tyson to be 1st receiver off the board
“so he was the first receiver off the board”
Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 11.45+59.26 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 36 at random averages 11.45
- skill:
- 59.26
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 11.45
- position:
- receiver
- class size:
- 36
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 2
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 8
“There are Sonny Styles in their mock draft when number eight to the New Orleans, saints.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 88.57 against a shuffle’s 50+38.57 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.57
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.57
- Mock Draft PicksMakai LemonMiami DolphinsApr 6, 2026
Makai Lemon to be picked at number 11
“Makai Lemmon went number 11 to the Miami Dolphins”
Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Makai Lemon
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsLos Angeles RamsApr 6, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 13
“Caleb Downs, number 13 to the Los Angeles Rams”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 13
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
- Mock Draft PicksJordyn TysonNew York GiantsApr 6, 2026
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 5
“Jordan Tyson went number five to the New York Giants, so he was the first receiver off the board.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7
“Carnell Tate is who they picked for the Washington commanders there... So the watch mayors passed over Sonny Styles to get Carnell Tate.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
- Mock Draft PicksChris BrazzellMiami DolphinsApr 6, 2026
Chris Brazzell to be picked at number 30
“as did Chris Brasel, who also went to the Miami Dolphins at pick 30”
Miss · 10Scored 10.07 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Chris Brazzell
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 10.07
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 83
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 10.07
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
What others said about the same people
- Nick WrightScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 33On his Week 3 pick show, Nick Wright gave straight-up final-score predictions for five games, calling blowouts by Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami, a Jacksonville home win over New England, a narrow New Orleans win over the Raiders and a low-scoring Baltimore win over Dallas in Brazil. He also called Seattle the best team in the NFL with the league's best defense.
- Dan BeyerGame Outcome Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0For his Week 3 survivor pick, he took the Saints to beat the Raiders at home, saying he doesn't see Las Vegas staying unbeaten.
- Darrion GrayScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 45Predicted the Saints beat the Raiders 27-17 at home.
- John HendricksScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 43Predicted a lower-scoring Saints win over the Raiders, 24-19, with the defense carrying them.
- Lance MooreScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Called for a Saints victory over the Raiders by a score of 27-20.
- Dylan SandersScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 36Picked the Saints to beat the Raiders at home in Week 3 by a score of 31-17, with New Orleans getting off to a fast start.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.