Derek Brown· Sep 12, 2026
Brown gives Week 1 start/sit calls at quarterback, recommending Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Tyler Shough, Jaxson Dart, Bo Nix and Malik Willis as starts, with Shough and Nix specifically capable of QB1 weekly numbers, while advising fantasy managers to sit Jayden Daniels, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence.
“Shough could post QB1 numbers in Week 1.”
published in writing · FantasyPros · read the original →
12 checkable claims — 6 sleeper calls, 4 fantasy bust calls and 2 positional finishes — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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Who this take is about
12 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsJared GoffDetroit LionsSep 12, 2026
Jared Goff to outplay his draft cost
“I think Goff will get it done in Week 1.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Fantasy Bust CallsKyler MurrayMinnesota VikingsSep 12, 2026
Kyler Murray to fall short of his draft cost
“I'm not hopeful that Murray begins the 2026 season with a monster game, though.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Sleeper CallsBaker MayfieldTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 12, 2026
Baker Mayfield to outplay his draft cost
“Mayfield should have a strong Week 1 performance... In a contract year, I'm expecting a big bounce-back season from Mayfield if he can stay healthy all season”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Fantasy Bust CallsTrevor LawrenceSep 12, 2026
Trevor Lawrence to fall short of his draft cost
“Lawrence could rise above a tough on-paper matchup for Week 1, but it's ok if you have some worries.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Sleeper CallsTyler ShoughNew Orleans SaintsSep 12, 2026
Tyler Shough to outplay his draft cost
“Shough could be in line for a big day if he can pick up where he left off last year.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Sleeper CallsBo NixDenver BroncosSep 12, 2026
Bo Nix to outplay his draft cost
“He could easily be a QB1 this week against a pass defense that allowed the 13th-highest passer rating last year”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Patrick Mahomes to fall short of his draft cost
“Denver is a tough test out of the gate for Mahomes.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Sleeper CallsMalik WillisMiami DolphinsSep 12, 2026
Malik Willis to outplay his draft cost
“Willis' rushing ability gives him an incredibly high ceiling and floor for Week 1.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jayden Daniels to fall short of his draft cost
“Daniels' rushing ability will have to carry his Week 1 fantasy production because he'll be under duress when dropping back to throw against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Tyler Shough to finish top ? at his position, by fantasy points
“Shough could post QB1 numbers in Week 1.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Sleeper CallsJaxson DartNew York GiantsSep 12, 2026
Jaxson Dart to outplay his draft cost
“Dallas should be viewed at least as a league-average matchup for Dart, with the upside to be a very good one.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Positional FinishesBo NixDenver BroncosSep 12, 2026
Bo Nix to finish top ? at his position, by fantasy points
“He could easily be a QB1 this week”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice touts Kyler Murray as a value QB who will start Week 1 for Minnesota, Tyler Shough as the Saints' undisputed starter, and Juwan Johnson and Terrance Ferguson as late-round tight end targets.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to be Minnesota's Week 1 starter and calls him one of the better quarterback values in 2026 drafts; he also views Jordan Love as a top-10 real-life quarterback but only a QB2 in fantasy.
- Jon GrudenTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Nathan JahnkeDepth Chart Calls · Jalen TolbertMiss · 0PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a large number of depth-chart, role and fantasy-value calls across the league, including Chig Okonkwo as a top sleeper tight end, Tre Tucker as the Raiders' top receiver, and various backfield hierarchies.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Matt Money SmithSleeper Calls · Tre HarrisMiss · 0Smith says Ladd McConkie is a legitimate No. 1 receiver who could post a Jaylen Waddle-like season of roughly 1,700 yards and eight touchdowns, and he predicts second-year Chargers receiver Trey Harris will have a big year under Mike McDaniel. He also expects Philip Rivers to become an NFL head coach and thinks the Chargers offense will be good in the coming season.
- Brandon CarneySleeper Calls · Javonte WilliamsHit · 100Carney predicted AJ Brown would not be back with the Eagles, forecast a wave of free-agent landing spots (Breece Hall to the Chiefs, Alec Pierce to the 49ers, Rico Dowdle to the Saints, George Pickens to the Patriots, Mike Evans to the Bills), and named Week 1 starting quarterbacks for several teams in flux. He also gave fantasy takes on Javonte Williams, Chris Olave and others.
- Chad Ochocinco JohnsonSleeper Calls · Saquon BarkleyMiss · 0Johnson says the Steelers aren't legitimate Super Bowl contenders even with Aaron Rodgers back, and that Saquon Barkley can have a bounce-back season in year nine with the Eagles competing for a championship if the offensive line stays healthy.
- Greg CosellSleeper Calls · Omarion HamptonMiss · 0Cosell expects the Nick Bonito vs. Will Campbell matchup to be pivotal, predicts Caleb Williams' future is bright, expects the Chargers' run game to improve dramatically under Mike McDaniel with a good season from Omarion Hampton, and expects Sean Payton not to hide Stidham.
- Andrew EricksonSleeper Calls · Saquon BarkleyMiss · 0Erickson gave his 2026 first-round board, leaning on running backs early with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase as his WR1 and Christian McCaffrey slipping to 12. He also touted Malik Nabers as a buying opportunity, projected big touchdown numbers for Burrow and Chase, and called Barkley a buy-low.
- Joe PisapiaSleeper Calls · Omarion HamptonMiss · 0Joe Pisapia's 2026 first round is receiver-heavy, starting with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja'Marr Chase, insisting Amon-Ra St. Brown belongs in the top five, keeping Justin Jefferson in round one, and dropping Christian McCaffrey to 12. He also sees Omarion Hampton as a value who will be a top-10 pick a year later.