Derek Brown· Jul 26, 2025
Brown is even higher on Tetairoa McMillan (WR17) and calls him Carolina's alpha WR1, pitches Tony Pollard as a value with top-15 RB upside and the clear lead back in Tennessee, and says George Pickens is badly underpriced and will finish as a WR2.
“He's gonna be a wide receiver two, with the volume that he's gonna see.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
8 checkable claims — 4 positional finishes, 2 depth chart calls and 2 sleeper calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 52.1 out of 100, against 47.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsGeorge PickensDallas CowboysJul 26, 2025
George Pickens to outplay his draft cost (seventy first overall in ECR wide receiver thirty two)
“it's George Pickens. He is inappropriately priced. I mean he's seventy first overall in ECR wide receiver thirty two.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- seventy first overall in ECR wide receiver thirty two
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- George Pickens
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR41
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsTony PollardTennessee TitansJul 26, 2025
Tony Pollard to outplay his draft cost (sixty six overall. He's the RB twenty six in ACR)
“right now he's sixty six overall. He's the RB twenty six in ACR. He's my fifty second overall player. I have him an RB nineteen”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- sixty six overall. He's the RB twenty six in ACR
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Tony Pollard
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB22
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB23
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Depth Chart CallsTony PollardTennessee TitansJul 26, 2025
Tony Pollard to be 1st on the depth chart
“Pollard's the unquestioned leader this backfield.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- TEN
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tony Pollard
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Positional FinishesGeorge PickensDallas CowboysJul 26, 2025
George Pickens to finish top 16 at his position, by fantasy points
“I have George Pickens as a top twenty wide receiver. He's my wide receiver sixteen.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- George Pickens
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 41
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 16
Drake Maye to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“I think there's a definitive chance that May is a top twelve quarterback this year... So Drake May could easily be a top twelve quarterback.”
Miss · 17Scored 16.67a naive guess scored 0+33.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 33.33
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 16.67
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 22
- actual finish:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 12
- Positional FinishesTony PollardTennessee TitansJul 26, 2025
Tony Pollard to finish top 15 at his position, by fantasy points
“Tony Pollard could be a top fifteen running back based off a volume in an improved situation.”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 91.67-116.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -116.67
- player:
- Tony Pollard
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 22
- actual finish:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 15
Tetairoa McMillan to be 1st on the depth chart
“the pathway for him to be the un like unquestioned wide receiver one alpha in this offense”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CAR
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Tetairoa McMillan to finish top 17 at his position, by fantasy points
“I've got Tedoro mcmillans Wide receiver seventeen thirty.”
Close · 67Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 0+133.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 133.33
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — the startable tier at WR
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 36
- actual finish:
- 13
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 17
What others said about the same people
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Jeremiah Pharms Jr.Miss · 0Hurwitz writes that the elevations of Jeremiah Pharms Jr. and Mike Brown likely mean Leonard Taylor III stays a healthy scratch and Joshua Farmer could be one too for the Week 3 game at Jacksonville, and that both elevated players will revert to the practice squad after Sunday.
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Reddy StewardMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player he expects Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. He also predicts Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere.
- Jeff CavanaughRoster Spot Calls · Curtis RobinsonMiss · 0Building his projected Cowboys 53-man roster on defense, Jeff keeps five interior linemen (Kenny Clark, Quentin, Tito Obonia, LT Overton, Bullard), six edge rushers including Von Miller, Malachi Lawrence and Marist Liufau while cutting Sam Williams, four linebackers with Jayshawn Barham starting, six corners including rookie Devin Moore, and four safeties including Marquise Bell.
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Christian GonzalezHit · 100Hurwitz says several Patriots starting jobs and roster spots are already settled — Drake Maye at QB with Jared Wilson at center, A.J. Brown and Hunter Henry as pass-catchers, and Christian Gonzalez, Milton Williams and Kevin Byard locked into roster spots. Among camp standouts, he pegs undrafted rookie Cameron Dorner as roughly the eighth receiver on a roster likely keeping seven, and says Channing Canada is a strong practice squad candidate if he doesn't make the 53.
- Zach RobertsRoster Spot Calls · Aaron HallHit · 100Previewing the Panthers' Hall of Fame Game, Roberts predicts Kenny Pickett starts but plays sparingly with Haynes King getting extensive work, and projects UDFA receiver Ja'Seem Reed and defensive lineman Aaron Hall to make the final 53-man roster.
- Charean WilliamsRoster Spot Calls · Israel AbanikandaMiss · 0Williams expects the Cowboys to elevate practice squad running back Israel Abanikanda to the active roster for Sunday's season opener after Malik Davis's hip injury.
More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Rich HribarPositional Finishes · Matthew StaffordHit · 100Hribar published his 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how he prioritizes drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.
- Chris BrockmanPositional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaHit · 100Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called his shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.
- Ryan TracyPositional Finishes · Bryan CookMiss · 0Tracy argues the Chiefs should address edge rusher and defensive tackle via the draft and use free agency on running back and wide receiver; he names Brian Robinson as his target, expects Kenneth Walker III to re-sign with Seattle, thinks Nick Bolton-style veterans like Jerry Tillery, Derek Nnadi and Mike Pennel shouldn't return, believes Bryan Cook is a top-10 safety the Chiefs can't afford, and predicts a quarterback (Trinidad Chambliss) will rocket up boards so more than one QB goes in the top 10.
- Pat GustavsonPositional Finishes · Bijan RobinsonClose · 75Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out his own coaching landing spots.
- JP AcostaPositional Finishes · Bijan RobinsonClose · 75JP picked the Eagles to beat the 49ers in a low-scoring game and the Jaguars to beat the Bills, called Bijan Robinson the best running back in the league, and named his own first-team All-Pro roster.
- Rich EisenPositional Finishes · Puka NacuaHit · 92Eisen defended his preseason call of the Packers reaching the Super Bowl, said the Chiefs will win the AFC West, called the Ravens the favorites in the AFC North, said the Colts are a playoff team, expected Denver to handle Cincinnati and the Giants to beat the winless Saints, and endorsed Puka Nacua as the league's best receiver.