Cynthia Frelund· Sep 5, 2025
Frelund's Week 1 picks: the Bears upset the Vikings outright at Soldier Field, the Bills beat the Ravens as home underdogs, Tampa Bay beats Atlanta by more than two, and her model has the Lions beating the Packers. She also called Alvin Kamara badly undervalued in fantasy drafts.
“I think we get an upset.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
3 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsSep 5, 2025
Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay Packers
“my model has my model says the Lions win”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsSep 5, 2025
Chicago Bears to beat Minnesota
“it is played at Soldier Field and Minnesota comes to town... I think we get an upset... Outright winners straight up.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 27-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsSep 5, 2025
Buffalo Bills to beat Ravens
“I think Buffalo wins... it's one and a half for the Ravens right now”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 40-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Nick Wright expects the Bills to beat the Lions comfortably in the Thursday night home opener, with Josh Allen shredding a depleted Detroit secondary, and he also picks a workmanlike Chiefs win over the Colts on Sunday night. He further predicts Tyreek Hill will end up on the Chiefs by around Halloween.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.
- Colin CowherdMock Draft Picks · Jalon WalkerHit · 81Cowherd delivered his own top-15 draft board — what he would do as GM of each team — pairing prospects with picks 1 through 15, and separately argued Shedeur Sanders is a far better prospect than Daniel Jones and that Aaron Rodgers should retire.
- Bobby SkinnerTrade and Signing Calls · Khalil MackMiss · 0Skinner predicted Daniel Jones signs with and wins the starting job in Indianapolis, Milton Williams to New England, Lavonte David back to Tampa, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to the Giants, DJ Reid to Arizona, Hassan Reddick to Washington and Justin Fields staying in Pittsburgh, plus alternates he had listed.
- Justin PenikTrade and Signing Calls · Cam RobinsonMiss · 0Pennock predicted Sam Darnold to Pittsburgh, Zach Baun re-signing in Philadelphia, Charvarius Ward and Jamien Sherwood to Washington, Cam Robinson to Chicago as left tackle, Cam Bynum to the Jets, Darius Slayton to the Chargers, Aaron Jones back to Minnesota and Aaron Rodgers to the Giants.
- Chris RoseTrade and Signing Calls · Chase YoungMiss · 0Hosting a mock free-agency draft, Rose predicted destinations for Nick Bolton, Carlton Davis, Russell Wilson, Malcolm Koonce, Stefon Diggs, Byron Murphy, Chase Young and Jacoby Brissett, plus Justin Fields returning to Pittsburgh, Ronnie Stanley leaving Baltimore, and the Browns trading up to No. 1 to take Cam Ward.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to upset Dallas, the Steelers to beat Atlanta by two scores, the Bears to beat Carolina, the Bills to beat Houston and Denver to beat Kansas City outright; he also said Justin Herbert will win an MVP and had the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Eric ManginiGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Mangini's upset alert was Washington over Philadelphia; in the chips segment he backed Houston, Dallas and Denver; and his Monday headline was Cincinnati mauling Tampa Bay, with Joe Burrow as his MVP and the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Shannon SharpeGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Sharpe predicted Matthew Stafford would throw four touchdowns in the Thursday night game against the 49ers, picked Tampa Bay to beat Cincinnati at home, took the Broncos over Kansas City on Monday night with Bonitto getting 2.5 sacks, and expects big fantasy value from kicker Brandon Aubrey.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0A CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night.
- Mitch GoldichGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Goldich's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.