Andrew Erickson· Oct 1, 2025
Erickson stayed high on Ja'Marr Chase (WR6) and Jaylen Waddle (WR14), backed a Ladd McConkey bounce-back against Washington, was low on Jordan Addison (WR40) and AJ Brown (WR23), and floated Jerry Jeudy as a fringe top-36 play.
“So that's why I'm buying the dip on Jamar Chase ... So I'm starting him no matter what.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
9 checkable claims — 8 positional finishes and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 17 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
8 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 59.4 out of 100, against 37.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Ladd McConkey to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Yes, he's more of that wide receiver too, just because I don't think the other guys completely go away. But Yeah, I'm in on Lad this week.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+14.83 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LAC
- skill:
- 14.83
- player:
- Ladd McConkey
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Jakobi Meyers to finish top 23 at his position, by fantasy points
“ericson you got him at twenty three ... So I think that this is a bounce back game for Jacoby Myers”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 25-44.5 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -44.5
- player:
- Jakobi Meyers
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 25
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 29
- actual finish:
- 38
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- predicted finish:
- 23
Jaylen Waddle to finish top 14 at his position, by fantasy points
“Erickson's at fourteen ... You gotta be above consensus on Jayla Wattle because he's gonna deliver a smash week.”
Close · 58Scored 58.33a naive guess scored 0+103.83 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 103.83
- player:
- Jaylen Waddle
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 58.33
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 48
- actual finish:
- 19
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- predicted finish:
- 14
Ja'Marr Chase to finish top 6 at his position, by fantasy points
“Ericson you've got him at six ... this is when you buy the dip on Jamar Chase. So I'm starting him no matter what.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 66.67+44.5 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 44.5
- player:
- Ja'Marr Chase
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 66.67
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 1
- actual finish:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- predicted finish:
- 6
Quentin Johnston to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points
“You guys don't agree, though, you guys both have him as wide receiver twenty.”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 33.33+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Quentin Johnston
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 33.33
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 36
- actual finish:
- 28
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- predicted finish:
- 20
Michael Pittman to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points
“Fitzi at nineteen, Ericson at twenty four, even lower”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 0+148.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 148.33
- player:
- Michael Pittman
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 46
- actual finish:
- 26
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- predicted finish:
- 24
A.J. Brown to finish top 23 at his position, by fantasy points
“I have him at twenty three, and I think that if you can make a compelling case to start somebody over him, I would.”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 83.33-89 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -89
- player:
- A.J. Brown
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 17
- actual finish:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- predicted finish:
- 23
Jordan Addison to finish top 40 at his position, by fantasy points
“Ericson, you got him at forty, so kind of bearing him down there”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 0+133.5 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 133.5
- player:
- Jordan Addison
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 18
- actual finish:
- 43
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- predicted finish:
- 40
Jerry Jeudy to finish top ? at his position, by fantasy points
“he will see least enough volume to probably maybe crack in the top thirty six, but probably not be better than like a top thirty receiver when the dust settles”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
What others said about the same people
- Thomas MartinezRoster Spot Calls · Patrick HerbertMiss · 0Martinez projects the Chargers' starting lineups on offense and defense for their Week 3 game at Buffalo, with injuries forcing several changes — Oronde Gadsden II at tight end, Trevor Penning at left guard, Jamaree Caldwell at defensive tackle and RJ Mickens at safety — while expecting Ladd McConkey to play and Marquez Valdez-Scantling to debut.
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More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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- Chris BrockmanPositional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaHit · 100Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called his shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.
- Ryan TracyPositional Finishes · Bryan CookMiss · 0Tracy argues the Chiefs should address edge rusher and defensive tackle via the draft and use free agency on running back and wide receiver; he names Brian Robinson as his target, expects Kenneth Walker III to re-sign with Seattle, thinks Nick Bolton-style veterans like Jerry Tillery, Derek Nnadi and Mike Pennel shouldn't return, believes Bryan Cook is a top-10 safety the Chiefs can't afford, and predicts a quarterback (Trinidad Chambliss) will rocket up boards so more than one QB goes in the top 10.
- Pat GustavsonPositional Finishes · Bijan RobinsonClose · 75Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out his own coaching landing spots.
- JP AcostaPositional Finishes · Bijan RobinsonClose · 75JP picked the Eagles to beat the 49ers in a low-scoring game and the Jaguars to beat the Bills, called Bijan Robinson the best running back in the league, and named his own first-team All-Pro roster.
- Rich EisenPositional Finishes · George PickensHit · 100Eisen called the Rams-winning-it-all take an overreaction but expects Los Angeles to win the NFC West, said he doesn't see how Myles Garrett fails to win Defensive Player of the Year, and called George Pickens perhaps the third-best receiver in the NFL this season.