Marcus Mosher· Sep 10, 2024
Mosher's Week 2 power rankings place the Chiefs first, 49ers second and Lions third, with the Panthers last. Along the way he suggests the Chargers look like a potential wild-card team, the Buccaneers could win the NFC South again, the Patriots may not be a playoff team, and Drew Lock will eventually replace Daniel Jones as the Giants' starter.
“The Buccaneers have won the NFC South in three straight seasons, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they did it again this year.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Sep 10, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
5 checkable claims — 2 playoff picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 division winner and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 90.9 out of 100, against 66.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 10, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
“The Buccaneers have won the NFC South in three straight seasons, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they did it again this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- won the division:
- yes
- Power RankingsSep 10, 2024
“NFL Week 2 Power Rankings — 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. Carolina Panthers”
Close · 72Scored 72.12a naive guess scored 67.38+9.21 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 9.21
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 72.12
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Depth Chart CallsDrew LockNew York GiantsSep 10, 2024
Drew Lock to be 1st on the depth chart
“It feels like it's only a matter of when, not if, Drew Lock will take over for Jones under center.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.17 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- -16.17
- player:
- Drew Lock
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles ChargersSep 10, 2024
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“The Chargers are still a year away from being a legit contender in the AFC, but they have the look of a potential wild-card team right away.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+194 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 194
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksNew England PatriotsSep 10, 2024
New England Patriots to make the playoffs
“New England might not be a playoff team in 2024, but given their defense, they will be a tough out for most teams.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Drew LockMiss · 0In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona.
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North.
- Jon GrudenTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Danny ParkinsTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonMiss · 0Parkins predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, Trey Hendrickson signs in Tampa, Michael Penix Jr. wins Atlanta's QB competition, Jared Wilson takes over at center in New England, Mike Evans reaches 1,000 yards, and the Bears lose Byard and Brisker.
- Chad MillmanGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Chad Millman said he had taken money-line positions on several Week 1 underdogs — the Texans outright over the Bills, the Giants outright over Dallas (in a money-line underdog parlay), and Miami outright at Las Vegas — and that the show's survivor pick was the Steelers to win.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.