Derek Brown· Aug 23, 2025

Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; he forecasts Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns.

“Top fifteen wide receiver top. I'm gonna stand on that top fifteen.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

9 checkable claims — 5 sleeper calls, 2 positional finishes, 1 player season number and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 9 have settled, averaging 50.7 out of 100, against 24.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

9 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Trade and Signing Calls Brian RobinsonAug 23, 2025
Brian Robinson to move — “cut or traded”
“So I am forecasting that Brian Robertson Junior is cut or traded.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
player:
Brian Robinson
season:
2025
claimed:
he leaves
was with:
WAS
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he stays where he is
weeks in the season:
18
ended up with:
SF
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls George Pickens Dallas CowboysAug 23, 2025
George Pickens to outplay his draft cost (he's being drafted as a wide receiver three)
“George Pickens, baby breakout season here... for a player that I'm comfortably ranking him aggressively as a wide receiver two and he's being drafted as a wide receiver three”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
he's being drafted as a wide receiver three
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
George Pickens
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR41
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR4
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Ricky Pearsall San Francisco 49ersAug 23, 2025
Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (he's at wide receiver forty two in ADP)
“Ricky Piersoll, Like he's at wide receiver forty two in ADP... I want to stay above consensus because I think the breakout is real and it's coming... this guy is heading for a huge season”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
he's at wide receiver forty two in ADP
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Ricky Pearsall
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR81
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR78
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Jacory Croskey-Merritt Washington CommandersAug 23, 2025
Jacory Croskey-Merritt to outplay his draft cost (He's sitting in those like RB sixty to seventy range)
“Jaquori Crosskey Merritt... He's sitting in those like RB sixty to seventy range... I have him at RB thirty two... he's in that fringe RB two RB three conversation”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
He's sitting in those like RB sixty to seventy range
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
-200
player:
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB28
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Tetairoa McMillan Carolina PanthersAug 23, 2025
Tetairoa McMillan to outplay his draft cost (he's still being drafted in so many different formats as a wide receiver three)
“I've got him as a wide receiver two, he's still being drafted in so many different formats as a wide receiver three. And it's Tedo McMillan.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
he's still being drafted in so many different formats as a wide receiver three
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
200
player:
Tetairoa McMillan
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR36
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR13
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Tucker Kraft Green Bay PackersAug 23, 2025
Tucker Kraft to outplay his draft cost (going is the tight end eleven)
“it's Tucker Craft. I mean, going is the tight end eleven... he's gonna have a massive breakout season”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
going is the tight end eleven
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Tucker Kraft
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
TE
had to beat:
TE7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
TE17
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Tucker Kraft Green Bay PackersAug 23, 2025
Tucker Kraft to finish top 6 at his position, by fantasy points
“And if this all happens, that he could be sniffing like top five, top six type of production this year... the more like high end expectations for him is probably top five, top six”
Miss · 8Scored 8.33a naive guess scored 16.67-16.67 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-16.67
player:
Tucker Kraft
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
8.33
baseline:
16.67
position:
TE
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
7
actual finish:
17
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
6
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Tetairoa McMillan Carolina PanthersAug 23, 2025
Tetairoa McMillan to record 10 receiving tds
“he could spike ten to twelve touchdowns this year”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 0+80 skill
How this was scored
naive:
3.4
skill:
80
what happened:
7
player:
Tetairoa McMillan
season:
2025
accuracy:
40
baseline:
0
predicted:
10
statistic:
receiving_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
no prior season
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
3.4
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes George Pickens Dallas CowboysAug 23, 2025
George Pickens to finish top 15 at his position, by fantasy points
“Top fifteen wide receiver top. I'm gonna stand on that top fifteen.”
Miss · 8Scored 8.33a naive guess scored 0+16.67 skill
How this was scored
skill:
16.67
player:
George Pickens
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
8.33
baseline:
0
position:
WR
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
41
actual finish:
4
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
15
Think this is wrong?

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