Chris Welsh· Aug 30, 2025
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
“The rushing upside makes him a top ten quarterback draft.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
16 checkable claims — 9 sleeper calls, 5 fantasy bust calls and 2 positional finishes — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 25 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
14 of 16 have settled so far, averaging 85.7 out of 100, against 12.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- Tyler Warren
- Indianapolis Colts
- Austin Ekeler
- Washington Commanders
- Tetairoa McMillan
- New Orleans Saints
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt
- Travis Kelce
- Kansas City Chiefs
- RJ Harvey
- Denver Broncos
- Travis Hunter
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Christian McCaffrey
- Drake Maye
- New England Patriots
- Rashee Rice
- Tyreek Hill
- Miami Dolphins
- Breece Hall
- New York Jets
- Carolina Panthers
- Justin Fields
- Joe Mixon
- Houston Texans
16 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsTyler WarrenIndianapolis ColtsAug 30, 2025
Tyler Warren to outplay his draft cost (tight end eleven)
“if you miss on the top three, you should be targeting Craft or Tyler Warren on the back end of the tight end. So that is a draft.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- tight end eleven
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tyler Warren
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- TE7
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Austin Ekeler to fall short of his draft cost (high into the thirties)
“You see Eckler going high into the thirties... I think it's gone too crazy, and I think there is too much of a committee here... So as a whole I'm gonna pass.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- high into the thirties
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Austin Ekeler
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB103
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsTetairoa McMillanNew Orleans SaintsAug 30, 2025
Tetairoa McMillan to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty four)
“the first wide receiver O Lave checks in at like wide receiver thirty four... this is really built around a Lave being too much of a value. So I'm gonna say, draft.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver thirty four
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR13
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Jacory Croskey-Merritt to fall short of his draft cost (the seventh rounds)
“We've seen Bill Krofsky Merrit going to like the seventh rounds, some people posting around the fifth round. I think it's gone too crazy”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- the seventh rounds
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB28
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Sleeper CallsTravis KelceKansas City ChiefsAug 30, 2025
Travis Kelce to outplay his draft cost (the sixty seventh player, the sixth tight end)
“I'll put a ring on it... you have Rice out. He's gonna be a red zone option. He got all the targets in the world. So I will put a ring on it”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- the sixty seventh player, the sixth tight end
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Travis Kelce
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- TE5
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsRJ HarveyDenver BroncosAug 30, 2025
RJ Harvey to outplay his draft cost (a round fifty one)
“So I am a draft on RJ. Harvey... I think the ceiling continues to jump up and up”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- a round fifty one
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- RJ Harvey
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB22
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Sleeper CallsTravis HunterJacksonville JaguarsAug 30, 2025
Travis Hunter to outplay his draft cost (outside the top thirty)
“So for a wide receiver of that talent to be going outside the top thirty... I think Travis Hunter is still a smash draft.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- outside the top thirty
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Travis Hunter
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- secondary
- had to beat:
- secondary24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- secondary1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Sleeper CallsChristian McCaffreyAug 30, 2025
Christian McCaffrey to outplay his draft cost (the seventh player overall)
“So I'm going to take some risk here when the running backs fall off. And I'm going to say Christian McCaffrey... is a draft”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- the seventh player overall
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB72
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsDrake MayeNew England PatriotsAug 30, 2025
Drake Maye to outplay his draft cost (QB sixteen on a ADP)
“his value is too good. He's QB sixteen on a ADP... I think he got a draft him because that value”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- QB sixteen on a ADP
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- had to beat:
- QB22
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Fantasy Bust CallsRashee RiceKansas City ChiefsAug 30, 2025
Rashee Rice to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver thirty two)
“I think Rice at the current value still doesn't make sense. So that's why they're both going to be passes.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- wide receiver thirty two
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Rashee Rice
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR97
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR41
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Fantasy Bust CallsTyreek HillMiami DolphinsAug 30, 2025
Tyreek Hill to fall short of his draft cost (the twelfth wide receiver on the consensus ADP)
“I'm a pretty firm pass on Tyreek Hill... he's a pass for me. I don't want a lot of shares.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- the twelfth wide receiver on the consensus ADP
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tyreek Hill
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR23
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR107
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsBreece HallNew York JetsAug 30, 2025
Breece Hall to outplay his draft cost (RB nineteen forty three overall)
“I am a draft of Breece Hall. I actually don't hate the ADP... I actually think in the fourth round, especially full PPR, it's a big check”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB nineteen forty three overall
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Breece Hall
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB18
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsTetairoa McMillanCarolina PanthersAug 30, 2025
Tetairoa McMillan to outplay his draft cost (fifty nine overall)
“We are drafting. Give me tetroh A McMillan one hundred percent... I think he could live up to what we wanted Marvin to be last year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- fifty nine overall
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR13
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Positional FinishesJustin FieldsNew York JetsAug 30, 2025
Justin Fields to finish top 10 at his position, by fantasy points
“The rushing upside makes him a top ten quarterback draft.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 75-150 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -150
- player:
- Justin Fields
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 31
- actual finish:
- 28
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 10
- Fantasy Bust CallsJoe MixonHouston TexansAug 30, 2025
Joe Mixon to fall short of his draft cost (one O two overall RB thirty seven)
“This is a hard pass. I have absolutely no interest... So I have no interest in Joe Mixon.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Drake Maye to finish top ? at his position, by fantasy points
“I kind of think he's going to stick around like QB between QB ten and fourteen this year.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
What others said about the same people
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Keenan AllenHit · 100Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Seth WalderTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Walder proposes five trades he believes should happen before Week 1 of the 2026 season: Jessie Bates III to the 49ers, Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Patriots, Keon Coleman to the Colts, Walker Little to the Cardinals, and Kayshon Boutte to the Commanders, where he says Boutte would immediately be Washington's No. 2 receiver.
- Steven RuizTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Ruiz expects the Eagles to trade A.J. Brown once the June 1 dead-cap threshold passes, most likely to New England, and thinks Baker Mayfield will get a Buccaneers extension making him the league's highest-paid quarterback within a month or two. He also argues the Lions may have to let one or two of their 2023 draft class leave, and that Houston should extend C.J. Stroud.
- Garrett PodellTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100A CBS Sports report frames Stefon Diggs as filling Washington's vacant No. 2 receiver role opposite Terry McLaurin after his reported one-year deal, expecting him in that spot in the 2026 passing game with Jayden Daniels.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100In a quarterback rapid-fire segment and later discussion, Brooks named starters for several clubs (Kyler Murray over JJ McCarthy in Minnesota, Shedeur Sanders in Cleveland, Tua in Atlanta, Jeremiah Love as Arizona's starting running back), called Chris Olave a No. 1 receiver, backed Stefon Diggs landing with the Commanders and Aaron Donald returning to the Rams, argued Baker Mayfield belongs among the top 15-17 quarterbacks, and published a top-five defensive tackle list topped by Jeffrey Simmons.
- Joe MarinoTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100Marino projects DJ Moore to bounce back in Buffalo's offense with over 1,000 receiving yards (talking up around 1,200), and expects rookie cornerback Davison Igbinosun (IGB) to win a starting job opposite Christian Benford. He also thinks free agent Stefon Diggs ends up signing with Washington.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tom StrachanSleeper Calls · Ricky PearsallHit · 100Tom Strachan backed Xavier Worthy, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Darnell Mooney, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter as values at their draft costs, while avoiding Jerry Jeudy and the Cleveland receivers.
- Ryan WormeliSleeper Calls · Ricky PearsallHit · 100Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Derek BrownSleeper Calls · DeVonta SmithHit · 100Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.
- Derek BrownSleeper Calls · George PickensHit · 100Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; he forecasts Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns.
- Ryan WormeliSleeper Calls · Cedric TillmanMiss · 0Hosting the segment, Warmley backed Bryce Young to finish better than his QB22 consensus ranking, endorsed Cedric Tillman as a late-round target, and said Tetairoa McMillan will be a top-15 fantasy receiver this season.
- Jake CielySleeper Calls · Romeo DoubsHit · 100Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.