Pat Fitzmaurice· Jul 5, 2025
Fitzmaurice ranks Darren Waller around TE40, touts T.J. Higgins as a low-end WR1 value, Kenneth Walker as a top-12 back if healthy, Stefon Diggs in the ninth round, Drake Maye as a QB1 finisher with big rushing upside, Luther Burden as an ADP-beater, and Javonte Williams as Dallas's lead back.
“I think Drake May is going to give us a QB one fantasy finish this year.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
12 checkable claims — 6 sleeper calls, 3 positional finishes, 2 depth chart calls and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 12 have settled, averaging 44.1 out of 100, against 44.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
12 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsTee HigginsCincinnati BengalsJul 5, 2025
Tee Higgins to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirteen, twenty nine overall)
“He's currently what wide receiver thirteen... but now I've got him ranked as a low end wide receiver one. He's my wide receiver twelve, number twenty four overall... here's why t Higgins has such vast upside and why I think you should proactively draft him.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver thirteen, twenty nine overall
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tee Higgins
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR19
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR11
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Kenneth Walker III to outplay his draft cost (his mid fourth round cost)
“So what is it that has to go right for Kenneth Walker to return? A nice profit on his mid fourth round cost.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- his mid fourth round cost
- naive:
- the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Kenneth Walker III
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- cost round:
- 4
- had to beat:
- RB13
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB21
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the cost the source quoted — his mid fourth round cost
- Sleeper CallsLuther Burden IIIChicago BearsJul 5, 2025
Luther Burden III to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver ECR fifty three)
“If Luthor Burton is the Bears primary slot man and things start to click for Caleb Williams, like Burton could dramatically OutKick his ADP”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver ECR fifty three
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Luther Burden III
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR49
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Sleeper CallsDrake MayeNew England PatriotsJul 5, 2025
Drake Maye to outplay his draft cost (QB sixteen)
“you think there's massive upside at QB sixteen with Drake May... I have him at QB eight, and that is really aggressive.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- QB sixteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- had to beat:
- QB22
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsDarnell MooneyAtlanta FalconsJul 5, 2025
Darnell Mooney to outplay his draft cost (their current prices)
“there is room for London, Pits and Mooney to all return a profit, I think at their current prices... So yes, I love this call.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- their current prices
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Darnell Mooney
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR31
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR80
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Stefon Diggs to outplay his draft cost (the ninth round of drafts)
“If we get ninety percent of that sort of production, and we can get it in the ninth round of drafts, like sign me up”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- the ninth round of drafts
- naive:
- the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Stefon Diggs
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- cost round:
- 9
- had to beat:
- WR36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR24
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the cost the source quoted — the ninth round of drafts
Javonte Williams to be 1st on the depth chart
“and it seems like he's going to get the first crack at being the league guy for Dallas this year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- DAL
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Javonte Williams
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Drake Maye to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“so I think Drake May is going to give us a QB one fantasy finish this year”
Miss · 17Scored 16.67a naive guess scored 0+33.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 33.33
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 16.67
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 22
- actual finish:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 12
Drake Maye to record 800 rushing yards
“I think Drake May could get to eight hundred rushing yards based on how aggressively he ran in college.”
Miss · 13Scored 12.5a naive guess scored 25.8-26.6 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 283.05
- skill:
- -26.6
- what happened:
- 450
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 12.5
- baseline:
- 25.8
- predicted:
- 800
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 421
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 145.1
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Ray-Ray McCloud to be 3rd on the depth chart
“And like, who of the Falcons added at wide receiver in the off season, it's gonna be like Ray Ray McCloud is the number three”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 75+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Ray-Ray McCloud
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Kenneth Walker III to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“Obviously, stay healthy, give us sixteen or seventeen games. If he does that, I think he's gonna finish as a top twelve running back.”
Miss · 25Scored 25a naive guess scored 33.33-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Kenneth Walker III
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 33.33
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 29
- actual finish:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 12
Darren Waller to finish top 40 at his position, by fantasy points
“When I plugged him into the rankings this morning, I think it was a tight end forty.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Darren Waller
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- TE
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — the startable tier at TE
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 12
- actual finish:
- 27
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 40
What others said about the same people
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Jeremiah Pharms Jr.Miss · 0Hurwitz writes that the elevations of Jeremiah Pharms Jr. and Mike Brown likely mean Leonard Taylor III stays a healthy scratch and Joshua Farmer could be one too for the Week 3 game at Jacksonville, and that both elevated players will revert to the practice squad after Sunday.
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Reddy StewardMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player he expects Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. He also predicts Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Darnell MooneyHit · 100Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker.
- David HarrisonRoster Spot Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100Harrison gives his initial 53-man roster projection for the Washington Commanders: three quarterbacks including Ethan Kalyak Manus, three running backs, four tight ends, six receivers (leaving off De'Ami Brown and Jaden Bradley), nine offensive linemen with Matt Goldman at center, and a defense of six linebackers but only four cornerbacks. He also projects Tunstall and Newton going to IR on Monday with De'Ami Brown and Dietrich Wise re-signed, plus a corner-heavy practice squad.
- Jeff CavanaughRoster Spot Calls · Curtis RobinsonMiss · 0Building his projected Cowboys 53-man roster on defense, Jeff keeps five interior linemen (Kenny Clark, Quentin, Tito Obonia, LT Overton, Bullard), six edge rushers including Von Miller, Malachi Lawrence and Marist Liufau while cutting Sam Williams, four linebackers with Jayshawn Barham starting, six corners including rookie Devin Moore, and four safeties including Marquise Bell.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Derek BrownSleeper Calls · Travis HunterHit · 100Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.
- Tom StrachanSleeper Calls · Ricky PearsallHit · 100Tom Strachan backed Xavier Worthy, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Darnell Mooney, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter as values at their draft costs, while avoiding Jerry Jeudy and the Cleveland receivers.
- Ryan WormeliSleeper Calls · Ricky PearsallHit · 100Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Chris WelshSleeper Calls · Tyler WarrenHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Joe PisapiaSleeper Calls · RJ HarveyHit · 100Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.
- Ryan WormeliSleeper Calls · Tetairoa McMillanHit · 100Hosting the segment, Warmley backed Bryce Young to finish better than his QB22 consensus ranking, endorsed Cedric Tillman as a late-round target, and said Tetairoa McMillan will be a top-15 fantasy receiver this season.