Derek Brown· Aug 30, 2025
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.
“Second year of breakout is here, boys.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
17 checkable claims — 6 positional finishes, 5 sleeper calls, 4 fantasy bust calls, 1 depth chart call and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 21 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 17 have settled, averaging 54.1 out of 100, against 23.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- Zay Flowers
- Baltimore Ravens
- Travis Hunter
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Xavier Worthy
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Marquise Brown
- Jalen Coker
- Carolina Panthers
- DeVonta Smith
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Ricky Pearsall
- San Francisco 49ers
- Keon Coleman
- Buffalo Bills
- Emeka Egbuka
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- George Pickens
- Dallas Cowboys
- Jaylen Waddle
- Miami Dolphins
17 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Fantasy Bust CallsZay FlowersBaltimore RavensAug 30, 2025
Zay Flowers to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver two)
“will you find say Flowers and my players to avoid article Yes, because he was priced as a wide receiver two. I don't want to pay a wide receiver two price tag for him”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- wide receiver two
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Zay Flowers
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsTravis HunterJacksonville JaguarsAug 30, 2025
Travis Hunter to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty one and seventy fourth overall)
“I have my wide receiver twenty five. I have him at fifty second overall. Right now in real time ADP, he is wide receiver thirty one and seventy fourth overall. I am aggressively ahead”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver thirty one and seventy fourth overall
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Travis Hunter
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- secondary
- had to beat:
- secondary24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- secondary1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver twenty four)
“So in real time ADP, he's around wide receiver twenty four. I just to me, I don't see any meat on the bone where you're drafting him there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- wide receiver twenty four
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Xavier Worthy
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR32
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR59
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Marquise Brown to fall short of his draft cost (back of the... final round picks)
“Marque's Hollywood Brown Again, all of these guys that are like back of the you know, final round picks for people, count me out on all of them”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- back of the... final round picks
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Marquise Brown
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR153
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR46
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsJalen CokerCarolina PanthersAug 30, 2025
Jalen Coker to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver seventy six)
“Jalen Cocher is the one where you're making that bet for basically free... he's wide receiver seventy six, one hundred and sixty third overall”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver seventy six
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Jalen Coker
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR83
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR71
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsDeVonta SmithPhiladelphia EaglesAug 30, 2025
DeVonta Smith to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver three)
“In some places his ADP is a wide receiver three. Okay, that's ridiculous. So he's gonna pay off even if AJ Brown stays healthy”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver three
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- DeVonta Smith
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR28
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR25
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsRicky PearsallSan Francisco 49ersAug 30, 2025
Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty five)
“The guy that I want to make sure I'm leaving almost every single draft with... is Ricky Pearsall... His real time ADP... is wide receiver thirty five.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver thirty five
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Ricky Pearsall
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR81
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR78
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Fantasy Bust CallsKeon ColemanBuffalo BillsAug 30, 2025
Keon Coleman to fall short of his draft cost (back of the... final round picks)
“when I was writing up the top two fifty players like Kean Coleman fully out”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- back of the... final round picks
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Keon Coleman
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR60
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR62
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsEmeka EgbukaTampa Bay BuccaneersAug 30, 2025
Emeka Egbuka to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty three)
“real time ADP he's wide receiver thirty three... I just keep moving him up, Just keep moving them up.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver thirty three
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Emeka Egbuka
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Travis Hunter to finish top 25 at his position, by fantasy points
“I have my wide receiver twenty five. I have him at fifty second overall.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Travis Hunter
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- CB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — the startable tier at CB
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 24
- actual finish:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 25
- Positional FinishesGeorge PickensDallas CowboysAug 30, 2025
George Pickens to finish top 15 at his position, by fantasy points
“I have George Pickens ranked as a top fifteen wide receiver.”
Miss · 8Scored 8.33a naive guess scored 0+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- George Pickens
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 8.33
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 41
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 15
Ricky Pearsall to finish top 26 at his position, by fantasy points
“I have moved him up to wide receiver twenty six.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 75-150 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -150
- player:
- Ricky Pearsall
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 81
- actual finish:
- 78
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 26
- Player Season NumbersJaylen WaddleMiami DolphinsAug 30, 2025
Jaylen Waddle to record 100 receptions
“I think we could see him revisit the role that he had in his rookie season and he catches a hundred passes”
Miss · 28Scored 28a naive guess scored 33.83-11.66 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 42.83
- skill:
- -11.66
- what happened:
- 64
- player:
- Jaylen Waddle
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 28
- baseline:
- 33.83
- predicted:
- 100
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 58
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 27.65
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Xavier Worthy to finish top 36 at his position, by fantasy points
“Will you have him at thirty six... that's why I bumped him up into the wide receiver three range.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Xavier Worthy
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 32
- actual finish:
- 59
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 36
- Positional FinishesJalen CokerCarolina PanthersAug 30, 2025
Jalen Coker to finish top 52 at his position, by fantasy points
“So I moved him up. He is my wide receiver fifty two right now.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jalen Coker
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 83
- actual finish:
- 71
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 52
- Depth Chart CallsJalen CokerCarolina PanthersAug 30, 2025
Jalen Coker to be 2nd on the depth chart
“he is going to be from the word go, and I'm not being hyperbolic about this, he is the Carolina Panthers wide receiver two”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CAR
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jalen Coker
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 4
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Positional FinishesJaylen WaddleMiami DolphinsAug 30, 2025
Jaylen Waddle to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points
“I have Waddle ranked ahead of Tyreek Hill. I have Wattle at wide receiver twenty”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 0+183.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 183.33
- player:
- Jaylen Waddle
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 48
- actual finish:
- 19
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 20
What others said about the same people
- Mike MoraitisRoster Spot Calls · Andre Jones Jr.Hit · 100Moraitis expects Andre Jones Jr. to hold a spot on Miami's 53-man roster after being signed off Buffalo's practice squad, with a significant special teams role under coordinator Chris Tabor.
- Scott KennedyScore Predictions · Carolina PanthersClose · 52Expects the Falcons to fall to 0-2 in Cooper Rush starts, losing 24-13 to Carolina.
- Seth WalderGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Picks the Panthers to beat the Falcons in Atlanta.
- Garrett ChapmanScore Predictions · Carolina PanthersClose · 50Thinks Atlanta matches up well but still falls short, picking Carolina 23-20.
- Jerry JonesScore Predictions · Carolina PanthersClose · 52Predicts Carolina pulls away from Atlanta, with the Falcons defense keeping it close early, in a 27-16 Panthers win.
- Eric MoodyGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Picks the Panthers to beat the Falcons in Atlanta.
More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Rich HribarPositional Finishes · Matthew StaffordHit · 100Hribar published his 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how he prioritizes drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.
- Chris BrockmanPositional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaHit · 100Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called his shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.
- Pat GustavsonPositional Finishes · Bijan RobinsonClose · 75Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out his own coaching landing spots.
- JP AcostaPositional Finishes · Bijan RobinsonClose · 75JP picked the Eagles to beat the 49ers in a low-scoring game and the Jaguars to beat the Bills, called Bijan Robinson the best running back in the league, and named his own first-team All-Pro roster.
- Chad Ochocinco JohnsonPositional Finishes · Christian GonzalezMiss · 0Ochocinco says Christian Gonzalez belongs in the top-five DB conversation, believes Kyler Murray will be elsewhere next year, expects Chase to get a one-game suspension, backs Sam Darnold to bounce back, and floats Jaxon Smith-Njigba reaching 2,000 receiving yards. He also reminds listeners he called the Bears and Panthers as teams to watch before the season.
- Rich EisenPositional Finishes · Puka NacuaHit · 92Eisen defended his preseason call of the Packers reaching the Super Bowl, said the Chiefs will win the AFC West, called the Ravens the favorites in the AFC North, said the Colts are a playoff team, expected Denver to handle Cincinnati and the Giants to beat the winless Saints, and endorsed Puka Nacua as the league's best receiver.