Nick Wright· Aug 28, 2025
Wright picked Chiefs over 11.5, Buccaneers over 9.5, Raiders over 6.5 (plus a Raiders playoff berth), Broncos under 9.5, 49ers under 10.5, Cowboys under 8, Jaguars over 7.5, and Bengals under 9.5 with Zac Taylor fired after missing the playoffs. He also had Commanders and Eagles both 11-6 with Washington winning the NFC East.
“I'll go with the Chiefs to hit their over like they do literally every single year.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
10 checkable claims — 7 season win totals, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
9 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 25.6 out of 100, against 47.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersWashington CommandersAug 28, 2025
Washington Commanders to win the division
“the Commander's baith on strength of scheduled tiebreaker or they're gonna win the division”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Team Draft Slot CallsIndianapolis ColtsAug 28, 2025
Indianapolis Colts to pick at number 1
“Yes, I think they could have the number one pick of the draft.”
Miss · 11Scored 10.51a naive guess scored 18.46-15.9 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- IND
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 14 the year before
- skill:
- -15.9
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 10.51
- baseline:
- 18.46
- actual pick:
- 53
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsWashington CommandersAug 28, 2025
Washington Commanders to finish with 11 wins
“So I had the Commanders and the Eagles both eleven and six.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- WAS
- naive:
- 10.25
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 5
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsPhiladelphia EaglesAug 28, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles to finish with 11 wins
“So I had the Commanders and the Eagles both eleven and six.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 95+10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PHI
- naive:
- 11.25
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 95
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsJacksonville JaguarsAug 28, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 10 wins
“the Jaguars over seven and a half... I think they can get to ten. So I will go over Jacksonville.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 0+80 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 80
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsTampa Bay BuccaneersAug 28, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 10 wins
“that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over nine and a half”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- -30
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsKansas City ChiefsAug 28, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 12 wins
“that is the nobody believes in US underdog Kansas City Chiefs to go over eleven and a half wins”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsLas Vegas RaidersAug 28, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 7 wins
“And that is the Las Vegas Raiders... I need seven wins for this. I think the Raiders over is a very very healthy bet.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 35-30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- -30
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 35
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksLas Vegas RaidersAug 28, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to make the playoffs
“And listen, I on my show, I picked the Raiders to make the playoffs.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsNew Orleans SaintsAug 28, 2025
New Orleans Saints to finish with ? wins
“There's two teams in that division that could have the number one pick of the draft... The Saints, I do think will be that bad.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
What others said about the same people
- Doug JoubertRoster Spot Calls · Kelvin Banks Jr.Miss · 0Joubert grades the Saints' units after their win at Baltimore and predicts that left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. will be placed on injured reserve, with one of three practice-squad tackles potentially elevated.
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100In a Week 2 preview, Middlekauff argued Matt LaFleur is under enormous pressure in Green Bay, predicted blowout wins for the 49ers over Miami and the Eagles over Tennessee, and offered season win-total views on the Saints, Buccaneers, Texans and Jaguars while backing Dallas to win the NFC East.
- Jeff KerrGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Kerr frames the Week 2 trip to Nashville as a game Philadelphia should win, moving the Eagles to 2-0 before a tougher stretch against the Bears and Rams.
- Carter BahnsScore Predictions · Jacksonville JaguarsClose · 50He picks Jacksonville to win in Denver, arguing the market still undervalues the Jaguars and that the Broncos' offense under new play-caller Davis Webb won't score enough to keep pace.
- Cory NidohGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Nidoh expects Jalen Hurts to have another big game against Tennessee and for the Eagles to come away with their first-ever win in Nashville over the Titans.
- Joshua SchulmanGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Schulman endorses the view that the Chiefs will beat the Colts in their Sunday night matchup, calling ESPN's heavy lean toward Kansas City a fair assessment.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- John MiddlekauffSeason Win Totals · San Francisco 49ersClose · 60Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Cowherd takes the Titans over their five-and-a-half win total on the strength of Cam Ward and Brian Callahan, calls New England an eight-to-nine win team, picks Green Bay to win the NFC North, expects the Giants to lose all four games to Washington and Philadelphia, and sketches a quarterback ranking with C.J. Stroud around 10th and Baker Mayfield 11th.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Detroit LionsHit · 100Sherman picks the Chiefs to beat the Bills in the AFC Championship Game despite Buffalo's turnover dominance, and picks the Commanders to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. He also expects Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year, though he hedges that voters may give it to Lamar or Josh Allen.
- Chris BrockmanSeason Win Totals · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Brockman pitched that the Eagles are the NFL's best team and that Saquon Barkley will win MVP as the first non-quarterback since 2011. He also declared the AFC playoff field already set with six weeks to go, said the Cowboys will make the playoffs, predicted Buffalo would blast the 49ers, and reiterated his earlier call that Carolina would win five or six games.