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Nick Wright· Aug 28, 2025

Wright picked Chiefs over 11.5, Buccaneers over 9.5, Raiders over 6.5 (plus a Raiders playoff berth), Broncos under 9.5, 49ers under 10.5, Cowboys under 8, Jaguars over 7.5, and Bengals under 9.5 with Zac Taylor fired after missing the playoffs. He also had Commanders and Eagles both 11-6 with Washington winning the NFC East.

I'll go with the Chiefs to hit their over like they do literally every single year.

said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

10 checkable claims — 7 season win totals, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

9 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 25.6 out of 100, against 47.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

10 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Washington Commanders to win the division

    the Commander's baith on strength of scheduled tiebreaker or they're gonna win the division

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    -200
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    WAS
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    won the division:
    no

    Think this is wrong?

  • Indianapolis Colts to pick at number 1

    Yes, I think they could have the number one pick of the draft.

    Miss · 11Scored 10.51a naive guess scored 18.46-15.9 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    IND
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    they picked 14 the year before
    skill:
    -15.9
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    10.51
    baseline:
    18.46
    actual pick:
    53
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Washington Commanders to finish with 11 wins

    So I had the Commanders and the Eagles both eleven and six.

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    WAS
    naive:
    10.25
    skill:
    0
    what happened:
    5
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    predicted:
    11
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Philadelphia Eagles to finish with 11 wins

    So I had the Commanders and the Eagles both eleven and six.

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 95+10 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    PHI
    naive:
    11.25
    skill:
    10
    what happened:
    11
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    95
    predicted:
    11
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 10 wins

    the Jaguars over seven and a half... I think they can get to ten. So I will go over Jacksonville.

    Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 0+80 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    JAX
    naive:
    6.25
    skill:
    80
    what happened:
    13
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    40
    baseline:
    0
    predicted:
    10
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 10 wins

    that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over nine and a half

    Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    TB
    naive:
    9.25
    skill:
    -30
    what happened:
    8
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    60
    baseline:
    75
    predicted:
    10
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 12 wins

    that is the nobody believes in US underdog Kansas City Chiefs to go over eleven and a half wins

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    KC
    naive:
    11.75
    skill:
    0
    what happened:
    6
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    predicted:
    12
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 7 wins

    And that is the Las Vegas Raiders... I need seven wins for this. I think the Raiders over is a very very healthy bet.

    Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 35-30 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    LV
    naive:
    6.25
    skill:
    -30
    what happened:
    3
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    20
    baseline:
    35
    predicted:
    7
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Las Vegas Raiders to make the playoffs

    And listen, I on my show, I picked the Raiders to make the playoffs.

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    LV
    skill:
    -200
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive guess said:
    no
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    made the playoffs:
    no
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • New Orleans Saints to finish with ? wins

    There's two teams in that division that could have the number one pick of the draft... The Saints, I do think will be that bad.

    Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More season win totals

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

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