Sharpe picks McMillan to win Offensive Rookie of the Year over Tyler Shough, and says Saints rookie Tyler Shough has locked down the starting quarterback job in New Orleans.

2 checkable claims — 1 award pick and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 45.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Who this take is about

• Tyler Shough
• New Orleans Saints
• Tetairoa McMillan

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Depth Chart CallsTyler ShoughNew Orleans SaintsDec 29, 2025

  Tyler Shough to be 1st on the depth chart

  “since he's come back, he is not relinquished that starting spot. / Is not going to relinquish it.”

  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+9.25 skill
  How this was scored

  club:

  NO

  skill:

  9.25

  player:

  Tyler Shough

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  91.67

  position:

  QB

  naive slot:

  2

  actual slot:

  1

  difficulty:

  1.11

  measured by:

  passing yards

  the naive guess:

  no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent

  weeks in the season:

  18

  predicted slot:

  1

  weeks left when called:

  2

  Think this is wrong?

• Award PicksTetairoa McMillanDec 29, 2025

  Tetairoa McMillan to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

  “I think mc millan's gonna get it, I really do... I think McMillan's gonna win it Rookie of the Year.”

  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+111 skill
  How this was scored

  award:

  offensive_rookie_of_the_year

  naive:

  the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before

  skill:

  111

  player:

  Tetairoa McMillan

  season:

  2025

  winner:

  Tetairoa McMillan

  correct:

  yes

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  0

  difficulty:

  1.11

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  2

  Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

• Jake CielyTrade and Signing Calls · Romeo DoubsMiss · 0
  On a Fantasy Pros free-agency show, Jake Seely gave his projected 2026 landing spots for a long list of free agents, including Aaron Rodgers to Minnesota, Daniel Jones back to Indianapolis, Malik Willis to Miami, Alec Pierce to the Raiders, Mike Evans to the 49ers, Deebo Samuel to Pittsburgh, Kenneth Walker to Arizona, Breece Hall to Kansas City and Kyle Pitts and Dallas Goedert re-signing with their current teams.
• Colin CowherdMock Draft Picks · Tetairoa McMillanHit · 100
  Cowherd delivered his own top-15 draft board — what he would do as GM of each team — pairing prospects with picks 1 through 15, and separately argued Shedeur Sanders is a far better prospect than Daniel Jones and that Aaron Rodgers should retire.
• Rhett LewisPosition Order Calls · Tyler ShoughHit · 100
  Lewis names Louisville's Tyler Shough as the new QB3 of the class — the third quarterback off the board — and views Milroe as a second-round selection.
• Cynthia FrelundMock Draft Picks · Shedeur SandersMiss · 0
  In her first mock draft for 2025, Frelund has the Titans taking Travis Hunter first overall rather than a quarterback, and Shedeur Sanders going ninth to the Saints; she also says her simulations have Hunter off the board no later than third overall.
• Rich HribarPositional Finishes · Derek CarrHit · 100
  Hribar published his 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how he prioritizes drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.
• Doug JoubertRoster Spot Calls · Daniel CarlsonHit · 100
  Joubert expects Daniel Carlson to win the Saints' place kicker job, as reflected in the site's final 53-man roster projection.

More depth chart calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

• Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
  An unsigned CBS Sports preseason review grading all 32 teams, which along the way stakes out a number of depth-chart calls for Week 1 and beyond — including Deshaun Watson opening as Cleveland's starter, Fernando Mendoza taking over as Las Vegas' QB1 by season's end, and Minnesota's Murray-Wentz-McCarthy quarterback order.
• Ryan WilsonDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
  A CBS Sports piece states Deshaun Watson has won Cleveland's starting quarterback job for Week 1 with Shedeur Sanders next in line, while arguing Watson will not play like even an average NFL quarterback and that none of the Browns' current young passers should stop them from drafting a first-round quarterback next April.
• Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
  Zamorano argues the Browns do not have a franchise quarterback and that it's unlikely Watson or Sanders is their long-term answer.
• John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
  The unsigned newsletter author says Deshaun Watson will start Week 1 at Jacksonville, notes he voted for Jaxson Dart as his breakout QB rather than Caleb Williams, and says newly signed Daniel Carlson is the favorite to win the Saints' kicking job.
• Mark ChichesterDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
  Unsigned PFF piece reporting/asserting that Deshaun Watson will be Cleveland's Week 1 starting quarterback against Jacksonville, with Shedeur Sanders behind him on the depth chart.
• Zachary PerelesDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
  The unsigned recap argues Sanders clearly outplayed Watson and, even if Sanders isn't named the Week 1 starter, predicts both quarterbacks will see significant playing time in 2026.

Discussed alongside these

• New York Giants117
• Dallas Cowboys114
• Kansas City Chiefs111
• Baltimore Ravens109
• Los Angeles Rams106
• Houston Texans102
• Detroit Lions101
• Cleveland Browns100