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Matt Miller· Mar 31, 2026

In his 2026 seven-round mock draft, Miller has Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall, Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Francis Mauigoa to Arizona at No. 3, Jeremiah Love to Tennessee at No. 4, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Carnell Tate to the Browns at No. 6, and a series of other first- and second-round picks including Ty Simpson to the Jets at the top of round two.

“So I go back to Love as the best player in this class in my opinion, and they have a need there.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →

27 checkable claims — 26 mock draft picks and 1 pro bowl and all-pro call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 43 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

26 of 27 have settled so far, averaging 74.5 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
starts off the third round (picks 65–100)They said
65What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

27 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Carson Beck to be picked “starts off the third round” (picks 65–100)

    “I think he starts off the third round for me going to the Arizona Cardinals”

    Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90.4 against a shuffle’s 50+40.4 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Carson Beck
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    65
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    starts off the third round (picks 65–100)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4

    Think this is wrong?

  • Sonny Styles to be picked at number 10

    “for me this year, it would be Sonny Stiles at ten... So he would be an absolute steal at 10 for the Bengals”

    Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90.4 against a shuffle’s 50+40.4 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Sonny Styles
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    87.81
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    7
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    87.81
    predicted pick:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4

    Think this is wrong?

  • David Bailey to be picked at number 8

    “and then Bailey, Bane, and Styles going to the Saints, Chiefs, and Bengals”

    Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90.4 against a shuffle’s 50+40.4 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    David Bailey
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    77.11
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    2
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    77.11
    predicted pick:
    8
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4

    Think this is wrong?

  • Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    “we know it's Fernando Mendoza one”

    Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4

    “You have Jeremiah Love going to Tennessee fourth overall... So I I go back to Love as the best player in this class in my opinion, and they have a need there.”

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Jeremiyah Love
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5

    “that leaves every other Ohio State player available for the Giants, and you think they go downs”

    Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Caleb Downs
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    77.11
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    11
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    77.11
    predicted pick:
    5
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3

    “The cardinals do go with Francis Mowonoa from Miami... Yeah. I think given what Arizona has, where they're at right now, there's not a quarterback that they should take here.”

    Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Francis Mauigoa
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    73.84
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    10
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    73.84
    predicted pick:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6

    “And then Tate would be available for the Browns? You think that would be Todd Monken's first draft choice as the Browns? I do.”

    Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Carnell Tate
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    91.7
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    4
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    91.7
    predicted pick:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Makai Lemon to be picked at number 11

    “I think whoever, is the best receiver available for the Dolphins, that's gonna be 11. Mekhi Lemmon is a very popular choice there... which means Miami would go Makai Lemmon”

    Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Makai Lemon
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    67.71
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    20
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    67.71
    predicted pick:
    11
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 14

    “You got Kenyan Sadique. It'll be the second straight year, an incredibly athletic tight end, goes fourteenth overall... You got Kenyan Sadique going to to Baltimore.”

    Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Kenyon Sadiq
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    91.7
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    16
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    91.7
    predicted pick:
    14
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 21

    “You you do have the, Steelers going tackle, at 21 and Caden Procter”

    Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Kadyn Proctor
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    67.71
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    12
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    67.71
    predicted pick:
    21
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Ty Simpson to be picked at number 33

    “And then you do have Ty Simpson going, first on the second night... Why do you why do you peg him for the Jets?”

    Close · 42Scored 42.04 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    42.04
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    13
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    42.04
    predicted pick:
    33
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Denzel Boston to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)

    “you you'd throw where Denzel Boston to the Raiders”

    Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Denzel Boston
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    39
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    second round (picks 33–64)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Omar Cooper to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    “The Bills going Omar Cooper Junior that the receiver out of Indiana”

    Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Omar Cooper
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    30
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Avieon Terrell to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    “I I think Avion Tyrell, that might be another Sharpie pick, right, with the Chiefs having flipped... getting Ruben Bayne and Adrian Terrell gives them weapons on defense”

    Close · 50Scored 50 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Avieon Terrell
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    48
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    50
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • K.C. Concepcion to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)

    “And and Casey Concepcion to the Giants”

    Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    K.C. Concepcion
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    67.71
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    24
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    67.71
    predicted pick:
    second round (picks 33–64)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Eli Stowers to be picked at number 40

    “40 overall, you've got Eli Stowers who we had on the program last week going to Miami”

    Close · 55Scored 54.53 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Eli Stowers
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    54.53
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    54
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    54.53
    predicted pick:
    40
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Colton Hood to be picked at number 30

    “You have them Colton Hood, a corner and thirtieth overall pick from the the, trade of Jalen Waddle to Denver”

    Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Colton Hood
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    73.84
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    37
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    73.84
    predicted pick:
    30
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jadarian Price to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)

    “And I'd like this pick for Minnesota Jadarion Price... would be a really nice draft choice with Dylan Thienham in first round, second round”

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Jadarian Price
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    32
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    second round (picks 33–64)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Dillon Thieneman to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    “You're also seeing Dylan Thieneman being a a Sharpie pick for the Vikings”

    Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Dillon Thieneman
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    25
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Garrett Nussmeier to be picked at number 53

    “You would have Garrett Nussmeyer being the choice... for the Steelers fifty third overall”

    Miss · 0Scored 0.02 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Garrett Nussmeier
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    0.02
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    249
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0.02
    predicted pick:
    53
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Drew Allar to be picked “second round choice” (picks 33–64)

    “and then you have the Rams using a second round choice on Drew Aller of Penn State”

    Close · 59Scored 59.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Drew Allar
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    59.46
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    76
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    59.46
    predicted pick:
    second round choice (picks 33–64)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Rueben Bain to be picked at number 9

    “and then Bailey, Bane, and Styles going to the Saints, Chiefs, and Bengals... getting Ruben Bayne and Adrian Terrell gives them weapons on defense”

    Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Rueben Bain
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    77.11
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    15
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    77.11
    predicted pick:
    9
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 12

    “and then it's whoever the the top two defensive backs are available for the Cowboys at twelve and twenty on their draft board... Getting McCoy in there”

    Miss · 2Scored 2.12 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Jermod McCoy
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    2.12
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    101
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    2.12
    predicted pick:
    12
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 7

    “So then you got, the final four of your first, top 10 here. Mansoor delaying going to Washington”

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Mansoor Delane
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    6
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2

    “You still think the Jets choose him second overall, Matt? Yeah. I do.”

    Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.62 against a shuffle’s 50+41.62 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    41.62
    player:
    Arvell Reese
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    87.81
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    5
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    87.81
    predicted pick:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    91.62

    Think this is wrong?

  • Eli Stowers to make Pro Bowl

    “If you could get him in Miami at this spot, I think that's that's a potential Pro Bowl player.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

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