Ryan Fowler· Apr 29, 2023
Fowler ranks the top 10 quarterbacks eligible for the 2024 NFL Draft, with Caleb Williams first and expected to go No. 1 overall, and Drake Maye warranting a top-two pick. He also predicts Jordan Travis as a sneaky Heisman pick.
“He's expected to hear his name called first overall next spring.”
published in writing · The Draft Network · read the original (as archived May 14, 2023) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
3 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 97.9 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall picktop-two pick (picks 1–2)They said
3What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksDrake MayeApr 29, 2023
Drake Maye to be picked “top-two pick” (picks 1–2)
“has the arm strength, accuracy, IQ, and dual-threat talent to warrant a top-two pick”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2023
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- top-two pick (picks 1–2)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb WilliamsApr 29, 2023
Caleb Williams to be picked at number 1
“He's expected to hear his name called first overall next spring.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2023
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Top Player ListsApr 29, 2023
“2024 NFL Draft QB Rankings: 1. Caleb Williams (USC) ... 10. Spencer Rattler (South Carolina)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Drake MayeHit · 100Hurwitz gives his latest 53-man roster projection for the Patriots after the preseason opener, naming who makes the team at each position and slotting rookie Jam Miller as RB3, Karon Prunty as CB4 and Kindle Vildor as CB5.
- Mike HarmonSleeper Calls · Caleb WilliamsHit · 100Harmon gave his Week 18 fantasy rankings — top five quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers — plus lists of 'hot plays,' 'cold sores' (players to avoid) and 'ninjas' (sneaky plays), and said Trevor Lawrence would land around a top-four fantasy quarterback finish for the season.
- John MiddlekauffDraft Bust Calls · Caleb WilliamsMiss · 0Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.
- Pat FitzmauriceSleeper Calls · Drake MayeHit · 100Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.
- Chris WelshSleeper Calls · Drake MayeHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Andrew EricksonSleeper Calls · Drake MayeHit · 100Erickson's must-have targets round by round: Nico Collins in round one (1,500 receiving yards if healthy), Drake London as a top-five WR in round two, Omarion Hampton as the Chargers' bell cow in round three, Kenneth Walker as a top-five fantasy back in round four, plus Tetairoa McMillan, Jaylen Waddle, Ricky Pearsall, Jordan Mason, Tucker Kraft, Drake Maye and a set of late-round fliers.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Rob RangMock Draft Picks · Jeremiah SmithMiss · 0Rang ranks the four headline prospects from the Texas-Ohio State game in the order he'd draft them (Jeremiah Smith, Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, Julian Sayin) and assigns each a draft grade: Smith and Manning as top-5 picks, Coleman top 10, and Sayin a third-rounder.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · Brandon DoughtyMiss · 3Rosenthal gave first reactions to Vegas win totals: overs on the Steelers, Broncos, Vikings, Buccaneers, 49ers and Cardinals, unders on the Falcons and Commanders, plus he expects Shedeur Sanders to start about 10-11 games and thinks the Cowboys' 9.5 is beatable.
- Peter BukowskiMock Draft Picks · Gennings DunkerHit · 100Bukowski breaks down Iowa offensive lineman Jennings Dunker as a Packers fit and puts a late second-/early third-round grade on him, noting that range overlaps where Green Bay picks.
- David HarrisonMock Draft Picks · Eli HeidenreichHit · 100Harrison delivers his only first-round mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, projecting all 32 first-round picks (including several trades) plus the rest of Washington's projected class, while noting it is an exercise in what could happen rather than a firm forecast.
- Brian PeacockMock Draft Picks · Bud ClarkHit · 96In his final 2026 mock draft for the 49ers, Peacock projects San Francisco taking WR Kevin Concepcion (KC) at pick 27, then after trading out of round two, edge rusher Kieron Crawford and safety Bud Clark in round three, OL Trey Zune and RB Jonah Coleman in round four, CB Charles Demings in round five and guard Caden Barnett in round six. He also thinks Omar Cooper comes off the board before Concepcion.
- David HarrisonMock Draft Picks · Riley NowakowskiMiss · 13In his final mock draft Monday, Harrison has the Commanders trading back twice and selecting eight players: safety Dylan Thieneman at 16, WR Denzel Boston at 33, RB Mike Washington Jr. at 83, C Jagger Burton at 132, CB Julian Neal at 147, QB Cade Klubnik at 187, DB Lorenzo Styles Jr. at 209 and TE Riley Nowakowski in the seventh round.