Manti Te'o · Sep 3, 2025
Te'o picks Lamar Jackson for a third MVP, Jalen Carter for Defensive Player of the Year, the Broncos to win the AFC West, and has the 49ers, Steelers, Buccaneers and Ravens in the playoffs.
“So the one that I'm most proud of of sticking to my guns, would have to be the Denver Broncos. As if AFC West champions”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
8 checkable claims from this
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 3, 2025
“we all three have the Bucks and the Ravens in the playoffs”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- false
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksBaltimore RavensSep 3, 2025
“we all three have the Bucks and the Ravens in the playoffs”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- false
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksLamar JacksonBaltimore RavensSep 3, 2025
“Laman Jackson is going to win his third”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- false
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I would say if they're in the playoff. I think that Russell would be starting.”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Russell Wilson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- naive basis:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksJalen CarterPhiladelphia EaglesSep 3, 2025
“Oh, I have Jalen Carter... Who will win the Defensive Player of the Year”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Pat Surtain II, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jalen Carter
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Myles Garrett
- correct:
- false
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksSan Francisco 49ersSep 3, 2025
“the San Francisco forty nine ers pick in the wild card round at the NFC Division, I'm really really proud of”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SF
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive said:
- false
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- true
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksPittsburgh SteelersSep 3, 2025
“I held the Patriots helmet up with the Steelers helmet and I chose the Steelers”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- true
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Division WinnersDenver BroncosSep 3, 2025
“the Denver Broncos. As if AFC West champions first time in ten years.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.