Fantasy Bust Calls
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 409
- Graded
- 38
- Average accuracy
- 57.9
- Pundits
- 47
9% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
38 / 409
graded
371 still pending
Who is good at fantasy bust calls
- Simon Hunter100 accuracy · 1 graded+200.0
- Derek Brown81 accuracy · 12 graded+125.0
- Andrew Erickson75 accuracy · 4 graded+100.0
- Chris Welsh75 accuracy · 4 graded+100.0
- Joe Pisapia50 accuracy · 4 graded+0.0
- Pat Fitzmaurice45 accuracy · 7 graded-20.0
- Jake Ciely33 accuracy · 4 graded-66.7
- Sean Kerner0 accuracy · 1 graded-200.0
- Ryan Wormeli0 accuracy · 1 graded-200.0
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)58.7 · 38 graded
Every fantasy bust calls take
101–125 of 409
Nick Nash to fall short of his draft cost (the second round)
Guy I'm avoiding, I can't take pickings in the second round... Pickens ain't returning a second round value to you.
Bijan Robinson to fall short of his draft cost (the second pick over all)
I have not drafted in a single league, Robinson. I just, I don't want Atlanta's running back... And he is the second pick over all.
- PendingJosh ShepardsonFantasy Bust Calls
Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (near their respective ADPs)
I'm doubling down on my stance to avoid Rice and Worthy near their respective ADPs.
Xavier WorthyKansas City Chiefs
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 31, 2026 - PendingJosh ShepardsonFantasy Bust Calls
Rashee Rice to fall short of his draft cost (near their respective ADPs)
I'm doubling down on my stance to avoid Rice and Worthy near their respective ADPs.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 31, 2026 Jordyn Tyson to fall short of his draft cost (around pick 135)
His fantasy football ADP has tumbled all the way down into the 12th round, around pick 135. Hopefully he can come back healthy, but risk-averse managers are looking elsewhere.
Trey McBride to fall short of his draft cost (1.12)
Whether you prefer Brock Bowers or Trey McBride doesn't really matter here. Neither should be drafted quite this highly.
De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (1.12)
Players to Avoid at 1.12 Fantasy Football Draft Pick ... De'Von Achane (RB – MIA) ... without Tua Tagovailoa, his numbers in the receiving game could dip significantly
Brock Bowers to fall short of his draft cost (1.12)
Whether you prefer Brock Bowers or Trey McBride doesn't really matter here. Neither should be drafted quite this highly.
Josh Allen to fall short of his draft cost (a late-third-round ADP)
Under no circumstances will I draft a quarterback in the first four rounds of a 1QB league... Allen has a late-third-round ADP. He's being drafted just ahead of Ladd McConkey.
Trey McBride to fall short of his draft cost (the first four rounds)
There are three tight ends guaranteed to land in the first four rounds: Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and Colston Loveland. I'm willing to draft Bowers and Loveland at cost, but not McBride.
Quinshon Judkins to fall short of his draft cost (a midrange or low-end RB2)
Judkins is being drafted as a midrange or low-end RB2... the constraints of the Cleveland offense will almost certainly limit his touchdowns and hinder his efficiency. Quinshon Judkins looks like a volume trap.
Jerry Jeudy to fall short of his draft cost (the late rounds)
But there is no reason to draft Jeudy in 2026. The Browns just spent early-round draft picks on WRs KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston.
Rashee Rice to fall short of his draft cost (ADP of WR12 (30th overall))
Now, Rice has an ADP of WR12 (30th overall). I'm fleeing at that price.
Zach Charbonnet to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 42)
This unknown/moving timeline has me shying away from Charbonnet for 2026.
- PendingFantasyProsFantasy Bust Calls
Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (grades as a big Yahoo value)
Xavier Worthy, who also grades as a big Yahoo value but whom our notes flatly fade... the analyst has "zero interest" in 2026.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 30, 2026 Courtland Sutton to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 76.6 (WR33))
the trade crushed Courtland Sutton’s fantasy value ... Sutton has seen a decline in targets and receiving touchdowns in back-to-back years, a trend I expect to continue.
Jameson Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 57.2 (WR26))
Fantasy players should avoid drafting the former Alabama star at his sixth-round ADP (WR26) and target a pass-catcher with less volatility instead.
Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 5.8 (RB3))
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF) | ADP: 5.8 (RB3) ... the superstar turned 30 this offseason and is a ticking time bomb because of his age and injury history.
Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 45.8 (RB20))
Bucky Irving (RB – TB) | ADP: 45.8 (RB20) ... The Buccaneers signed Kenneth Gainwell to a significant contract in free agency and called the veteran a co-starter during training camp, signaling their lack of trust in Irving as a featured running back.
Jake Ferguson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 112.4 (TE12))
Jake Ferguson shouldn’t get drafted in standard-size leagues, as CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens limit his upside.
De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 10.8 (RB6))
I won’t draft him as a mid-range RB1 and would like to avoid picking Achane altogether with Malik Willis under center.
Harold Fannin Jr. to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 70.2 (TE5))
Fannin should get drafted closer to the TE10 than his TE5 ADP.
Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 11.8 (WR6))
fantasy players should avoid drafting Jefferson as a top-six wide receiver and a top-12 pick
Trey McBride to fall short of his draft cost (1.11)
Whether you prefer Brock Bowers or Trey McBride doesn't really matter. Neither should be drafted this high.
De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (1.11)
Players to Avoid at 1.11 Fantasy Football Draft Pick... De'Von Achane (RB – MIA)... it's hard not to be concerned that his numbers in the receiving game could dip significantly without Tua Tagovailoa
By sport
NFL — fantasy bust calls (38 graded)
The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.