Fantasy Bust Calls
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 409
- Graded
- 38
- Average accuracy
- 57.9
- Pundits
- 47
9% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
38 / 409
graded
371 still pending
Who is good at fantasy bust calls
- Simon Hunter100 accuracy · 1 graded+200.0
- Derek Brown81 accuracy · 12 graded+125.0
- Andrew Erickson75 accuracy · 4 graded+100.0
- Chris Welsh75 accuracy · 4 graded+100.0
- Joe Pisapia50 accuracy · 4 graded+0.0
- Pat Fitzmaurice45 accuracy · 7 graded-20.0
- Jake Ciely33 accuracy · 4 graded-66.7
- Sean Kerner0 accuracy · 1 graded-200.0
- Ryan Wormeli0 accuracy · 1 graded-200.0
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)58.7 · 38 graded
Every fantasy bust calls take
126–150 of 409
De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (1.11)
Players to Avoid at 1.11 Fantasy Football Draft Pick... De'Von Achane (RB – MIA)... it's hard not to be concerned that his numbers in the receiving game could dip significantly without Tua Tagovailoa
Josh Jacobs to fall short of his draft cost (Inside the top-50)
But will he be a true league-winning pick? I'm very bearish on that. ... Inside the top-50, I'm looking elsewhere.
Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (the RB21)
Like Williams above, I feel that Irving is currently being overdrafted as the RB21, and it is difficult to trust him to stay healthy for an entire season.
Javonte Williams to fall short of his draft cost (his current RB14 ranking)
I’ve long been a supporter of his physical traits, but with his current RB14 ranking, I can’t envision a scenario where he returns value at his current cost.
Trey McBride to fall short of his draft cost (1.10)
Whether you prefer Brock Bowers or Trey McBride doesn’t really matter. Neither should be drafted this high.
Brock Bowers to fall short of his draft cost (1.10)
Whether you prefer Brock Bowers or Trey McBride doesn’t really matter. Neither should be drafted this high.
De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (1.10)
Players to Avoid at 1.10 ... It’s hard, though, not to be concerned that his numbers in the receiving game could dip significantly without Tua Tagovailoa
- PendingFantasyProsFantasy Bust Calls
Marvin Harrison Jr. to fall short of his draft cost (Going as the WR31, around the 72nd overall pick)
Going as the WR31, around the 72nd overall pick, Harrison faces real target-share and first-read-percentage data favoring a teammate significantly over him last year ... Overall, the group leans toward the bust side.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 28, 2026 - PendingFantasyProsFantasy Bust Calls
Carnell Tate to fall short of his draft cost (Going as the WR32, around the 78th overall pick)
Two analysts lean bust here, with one leaning boom.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 28, 2026 - PendingFantasyProsFantasy Bust Calls
De'Zhaun Stribling to fall short of his draft cost (Going as the WR40, around the 98th overall pick)
Two analysts lean bust or skeptical-neutral, while the third leans boom given the real preseason signal.
De'Zhaun StriblingSan Francisco 49ers
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 28, 2026 - PendingRichard JanvrinFantasy Bust Calls
Hunter Henry to fall short of his draft cost (TE2 range)
Hunter Henry is in the TE2 range, but for some, his seven-touchdown 2025 campaign could spawn some belief.
Hunter HenryNew England Patriots
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 27, 2026 - PendingFrank AmmiranteFantasy Bust Calls
De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (RB6 ADP)
Achane has an RB6 ADP, which is too costly for me. I'd much rather have players in better offenses, like Chase Brown, Omarion Hampton and Kenneth Walker III.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 27, 2026 Davante Adams to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 4.12)
Davante Adams faces touchdown regression: Adams scored a league-high 14 touchdowns last season, but his receptions and receiving yards per game were his lowest since 2015.
Rashee Rice to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 3.03)
Potential changes to his role, recurring availability concerns and increased competition for targets make Rice difficult to trust at his 3.03 consensus ADP.
Jakobi Meyers to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 10.09)
Washington has emerged as the team's best receiver, and if he and Hunter are on the field together, that could push Meyers off it.
Rashee Rice to fall short of his draft cost (Currently ranked as the WR13 in expert consensus rankings (ECR))
Currently ranked as the WR13 in expert consensus rankings (ECR), Rice is being treated as a low-end WR1... There are just too many "what ifs" to wrap my head around Rice's current price point. He's being drafted earlier than I'm comfortable with.
Brock Bowers to fall short of his draft cost (1.09)
Whether you prefer Brock Bowers or Trey McBride doesn't really matter. Neither should be drafted this high.
Omarion Hampton to fall short of his draft cost (1.09)
Omarion Hampton and the Chargers are very much the target of offseason hype... there are reasons not to get too carried away with offseason hype.
Trey McBride to fall short of his draft cost (1.09)
Whether you prefer Brock Bowers or Trey McBride doesn't really matter. Neither should be drafted this high.
Bhayshul Tuten to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 6.02)
Tuten is currently being drafted as a low-end RB2, but there is serious risk at that price.
Cam Skattebo to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 4.04)
The problem is where Skattebo is going. He is being drafted ahead of backs like Bucky Irving, Quinshon Judkins and D'Andre Swift, who are either in better offenses with more assured volume or hold outright workhorse roles.
TreVeyon Henderson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 6.01)
Henderson's fifth-round ADP bets on a role he hasn't earned.
- PendingFantasyProsFantasy Bust Calls
Lamar Jackson to fall short of his draft cost (a top-two quarterback price)
The single largest negative-regression quarterback in the report, and the clearest sell on the board... at a top-two quarterback price the market is baking that ceiling in as a near certainty when it is anything but. This is the fade of the summer.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 25, 2026 Lamar Jackson to fall short of his draft cost (his current ADP)
Yes, I’m lower than consensus with Lamar Jackson this season, but I fully acknowledge his upside... where he’s being drafted is baking in that as a near certainty when it’s not.
- PendingFantasyProsFantasy Bust Calls
Lamar Jackson to fall short of his draft cost (the No. 2 overall QB off the board at his current ADP)
Let’s dive into the case against drafting Lamar Jackson as the No. 2 overall QB off the board at his current ADP.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 25, 2026
By sport
NFL — fantasy bust calls (38 graded)
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