Nick Wright· Aug 29, 2025

In part two of his gambling show, Nick Wright ran through NFC (and recapped AFC) win-total picks, division winners and make/miss-the-playoffs bets, backing the Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders, Bears, Buccaneers and Falcons to clear their totals while predicting Commanders, Bucs and Rams division titles.

“The Bucks are going to win ten games. Ten games will get them in the playoffs, at least ten games, I should say.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

30 checkable claims — 13 season win totals, 6 playoff picks, 3 division winners, 3 game outcome picks, 2 surprise team calls, 1 depth chart call, 1 position group ranking and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 17 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

27 of 30 have settled so far, averaging 44.4 out of 100, against 45.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

30 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Trade and Signing Calls Kyler Murray Pittsburgh SteelersAug 29, 2025
Kyler Murray to move to Pittsburgh Steelers
“it feels like Kyler Murray starting quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers Week one of next year. Feel feels about like the plan”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-200
player:
Kyler Murray
season:
2025
claimed:
PIT
was with:
ARI
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he stays where he is
weeks in the season:
18
ended up with:
ARI
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Tyler Booker Dallas CowboysAug 29, 2025
Tyler Booker to be 1st on the depth chart
“Listen, I like Tyler Booker, their rookie first round pick, still a rookie player, you know, starter from day one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
16.67
player:
Tyler Booker
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
G
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Washington CommandersAug 29, 2025
Washington Commanders to win the division
“I just think the Commanders are gonna win the division”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-200
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
WAS
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Tampa Bay BuccaneersAug 29, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
“Yeah, I mean they're gonna win the division”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
TB
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
TB
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Los Angeles RamsAug 29, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to win the division
“I do think they're gonna win the division. I do think they're the best team in that division.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
LAR
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks Tampa Bay BuccaneersAug 29, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Atlanta
“I think they're going to start three and zero at Atlanta at the Texans home for the Jets”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
won:
TB
score:
23-20
skill:
200
they picked:
TB
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
ATL
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks Tampa Bay BuccaneersAug 29, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Jets
“I think they're going to start three and zero at Atlanta at the Texans home for the Jets”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
TB
score:
27-29
skill:
0
they picked:
TB
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
TB
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Las Vegas RaidersAug 29, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 7 wins
“Vegas six and a half at minus one hundred and forty five”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 35-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
LV
naive:
6.25
skill:
-30
what happened:
3
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
35
predicted:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Tampa Bay BuccaneersAug 29, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“You got the Bucks at minus one seventy to make the playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks Tampa Bay BuccaneersAug 29, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Texans
“I think they're going to start three and zero at Atlanta at the Texans home for the Jets and obviously Texans are a good team. I think Tampa's better”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
won:
TB
score:
20-19
skill:
200
they picked:
TB
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Jacksonville JaguarsAug 29, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs
“We've got the Jags at plus one eighty to make the playoffs... I'm having them make the playoffs at plus one eighty”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
skill:
200
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Tampa Bay BuccaneersAug 29, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 10 wins
“the Bucks are going to win ten games. Ten games will get them in the playoffs, at least ten games”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
naive:
9.25
skill:
-30
what happened:
8
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
75
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Jacksonville JaguarsAug 29, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 8 wins
“For the overs, We've got Jags at seven and a half at minus one twenty five”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
naive:
6.25
skill:
0
what happened:
13
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks New York GiantsAug 29, 2025
New York Giants to make the playoffs
“Giants at plus five hundred to make the playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYG
skill:
-200
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Washington CommandersAug 29, 2025
Washington Commanders to make the playoffs
“I do think they go back to the playoffs.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
WAS
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Las Vegas RaidersAug 29, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to make the playoffs
“You got the Raiders to make the playoffs at plus three forty”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
LV
skill:
-200
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Kansas City ChiefsAug 29, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“the Chiefs to make the playoffs at minus three eighty”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Chicago BearsAug 29, 2025
Chicago Bears to finish with 9 wins
“So I will take and I will bet the Bears over eight and a half”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 15+90 skill
How this was scored
team:
CHI
naive:
6.75
skill:
90
what happened:
11
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
15
predicted:
9
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Washington CommandersAug 29, 2025
Washington Commanders to finish with 11 wins
“So I like the Commanders over nine and a half... I had the Commanders and the Eagles both finishing eleven and six”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
WAS
naive:
10.25
skill:
0
what happened:
5
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Los Angeles RamsAug 29, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to finish with 10 wins
“I am going over with the Rams for nine and a half”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 45+30 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAR
naive:
9.25
skill:
30
what happened:
12
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
45
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals New Orleans SaintsAug 29, 2025
New Orleans Saints to finish with 5 wins
“I am going to go under on the Panthers and over on the Saints”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 85-10 skill
How this was scored
team:
NO
naive:
6.75
skill:
-10
what happened:
6
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
85
predicted:
5
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Detroit LionsAug 29, 2025
Detroit Lions to finish with 11 wins
“Lions over under is at ten and a half... I have to go with the plus money side, So I will say over”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 45+30 skill
How this was scored
team:
DET
naive:
11.75
skill:
30
what happened:
9
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
45
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals New York GiantsAug 29, 2025
New York Giants to finish with 6 wins
“I will go over with the New York Giants. You just have to get to six wins.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 65-10 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYG
naive:
5.75
skill:
-10
what happened:
4
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
65
predicted:
6
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Green Bay PackersAug 29, 2025
Green Bay Packers to finish with 9 wins
“I just think they're gonna win nine games”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 85+30 skill
How this was scored
team:
GB
naive:
9.75
skill:
30
what happened:
9
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
85
predicted:
9
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Atlanta FalconsAug 29, 2025
Atlanta Falcons to finish with 8 wins
“one of my bets will be Falcons over seven and a half at minus one forty”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 95+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
ATL
naive:
8.25
skill:
10
what happened:
8
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
95
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Kansas City ChiefsAug 29, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 12 wins
“Kansas City over eleven and a half at plus one hundred”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
naive:
11.75
skill:
0
what happened:
6
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Philadelphia EaglesAug 29, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles to finish with 11 wins
“This also is not a bet demands because I think eleven winds is where it lands... I had the Commanders and the Eagles both finishing eleven and six”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 95+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
PHI
naive:
11.25
skill:
10
what happened:
11
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
95
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Surprise Team Calls Las Vegas RaidersAug 29, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to beat expectations
“there has to be the shock playoff team. I have cast my lot with it being the Raiders.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Position Group RankingsAug 29, 2025
“I think they might have the best front four in football.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Surprise Team Calls Atlanta FalconsAug 29, 2025
Atlanta Falcons to beat expectations
“I actually think this team is a sneaky playoff contender because of the schedule”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Justin BarronMiss · 0
Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player he expects Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. He also predicts Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere.
John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jalen McLeodMiss · 0
Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there.
Jeff KerrRoster Spot Calls · Maximus PulleyMiss · 0
Kerr ranks the Eagles' eight undrafted free agents by their chances of making the initial 53-man roster, with Kapena Gushiken the most likely and predicts at least one UDFA makes the 53. He also forecasts practice squad spots for Zion Wilson, Deontae Lawson and Maximus Pulley, and a release for long snapper Rocco Underwood.
Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandMiss · 0
Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0
The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
Seth WalderTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0
Walder proposes five trades he believes should happen before Week 1 of the 2026 season: Jessie Bates III to the 49ers, Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Patriots, Keon Coleman to the Colts, Walker Little to the Cardinals, and Kayshon Boutte to the Commanders, where he says Boutte would immediately be Washington's No. 2 receiver.

More season win totals

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Who this take is about

30 checkable claims in this take

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