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Nick Wright· Aug 27, 2025

Nick Wright walked through the Browns' quarterback situation and then gave leans and bets on every AFC team's win total, offering concrete win-count expectations for several clubs plus a call on Brock Bowers.

I think that we have Mike Tomlin's first losing season as Aaron Rodgers' final season.

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

13 checkable claims — 8 season win totals, 3 depth chart calls, 1 playoff pick and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 13 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 48.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

wins
9–10 wins (9–10 wins)They said
14What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

13 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • New England Patriots to finish with 9–10 wins

    I think the Patriots win nine or ten games, can make the playoffs, and I will go over on the New England Patriots.

    Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    NE
    naive:
    6.25
    skill:
    40
    what happened:
    14
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    20
    baseline:
    0
    predicted:
    9–10 wins (9–10 wins)
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Joe Flacco to be 1st on the depth chart

    the Browns start the season, they're bad. Third of the way into the season, they pull the plug on Flacco.

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CIN
    skill:
    16.67
    player:
    Joe Flacco
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    91.67
    position:
    QB
    naive slot:
    2
    actual slot:
    1
    difficulty:
    2
    measured by:
    passing yards
    the naive guess:
    where he sat last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Dillon Gabriel to be 1st on the depth chart

    Third of the way into the season, they pull the plug on Flacco. They go to Dylan Gabriel. They're still quite bad.

    Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CLE
    skill:
    -16.67
    player:
    Dillon Gabriel
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    91.67
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    QB
    naive slot:
    2
    actual slot:
    2
    difficulty:
    2
    measured by:
    passing yards
    the naive guess:
    no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Buffalo Bills to finish with 12 wins

    I feel like the Bills are a twelve and five team. I don't think they're getting to thirteen wins.

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+50 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    BUF
    naive:
    10.75
    skill:
    50
    what happened:
    12
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    75
    predicted:
    12
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Miami Dolphins to finish with 7 wins

    I will say it's a seven and ten Dolphins year, and I will go slightly under.

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+50 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    MIA
    naive:
    8.25
    skill:
    50
    what happened:
    7
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    75
    predicted:
    7
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • New England Patriots to make the playoffs

    I think the Patriots win nine or ten games, can make the playoffs

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    NE
    skill:
    200
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive guess said:
    no
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    made the playoffs:
    yes
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Cincinnati Bengals to finish with 9 wins

    the Bengals have a carbon copy year of last year. They win nine games, they missed the playoffs, and they fire their head coach.

    Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 45-10 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    CIN
    naive:
    8.75
    skill:
    -10
    what happened:
    6
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    40
    baseline:
    45
    predicted:
    9
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Houston Texans to finish with 10 wins

    I don't think they're a dominant team... but I think they can get to ten wins.

    Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 45+30 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    HOU
    naive:
    9.25
    skill:
    30
    what happened:
    12
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    60
    baseline:
    45
    predicted:
    10
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Denver Broncos to finish with 7 wins

    I think it is more than on the board that this team goes seven and ten. They are more likely to go seven and ten than ten and seven.

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 5-10 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    DEN
    naive:
    9.25
    skill:
    -10
    what happened:
    14
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    5
    predicted:
    7
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 13 wins

    Twelve and five would disappoint me. I expect thirteen and four or better.

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    KC
    naive:
    11.75
    skill:
    0
    what happened:
    6
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    predicted:
    13
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 9 wins

    I think they probably go nine and eight and just miss out on the playoffs.

    Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    LAC
    naive:
    9.75
    skill:
    -30
    what happened:
    11
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    60
    baseline:
    75
    predicted:
    9
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Brock Bowers to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards

    I think brock Bowers is going to have the best statistical season of any tight end.

    Miss · 25Scored 25a naive guess scored 25+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Brock Bowers
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    12
    accuracy:
    25
    baseline:
    25
    position:
    TE
    ranked by:
    receiving yards
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    1
    actual finish:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    18
    predicted finish:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Shedeur Sanders to be 3rd on the depth chart

    he started camp fourth string, he stayed fourth string. He's now third string because one of the strings is on the Raiders... he is fairly right now their third best option to starting quarterback

    Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CLE
    skill:
    -16.67
    player:
    Shedeur Sanders
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    83.33
    baseline:
    91.67
    position:
    QB
    naive slot:
    2
    actual slot:
    1
    difficulty:
    2
    measured by:
    passing yards
    the naive guess:
    no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More season win totals

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

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