Nick Wright· Aug 27, 2025
Nick Wright walked through the Browns' quarterback situation and then gave leans and bets on every AFC team's win total, offering concrete win-count expectations for several clubs plus a call on Brock Bowers.
“I think that we have Mike Tomlin's first losing season as Aaron Rodgers' final season.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
13 checkable claims — 8 season win totals, 3 depth chart calls, 1 playoff pick and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 13 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 48.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
winsTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
13 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Season Win TotalsNew England PatriotsAug 27, 2025
New England Patriots to finish with 9–10 wins
“I think the Patriots win nine or ten games, can make the playoffs, and I will go over on the New England Patriots.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 40
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 9–10 wins (9–10 wins)
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsJoe FlaccoCleveland BrownsAug 27, 2025
Joe Flacco to be 1st on the depth chart
“the Browns start the season, they're bad. Third of the way into the season, they pull the plug on Flacco.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CIN
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Joe Flacco
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsDillon GabrielCleveland BrownsAug 27, 2025
Dillon Gabriel to be 1st on the depth chart
“Third of the way into the season, they pull the plug on Flacco. They go to Dylan Gabriel. They're still quite bad.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CLE
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Dillon Gabriel
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsBuffalo BillsAug 27, 2025
Buffalo Bills to finish with 12 wins
“I feel like the Bills are a twelve and five team. I don't think they're getting to thirteen wins.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+50 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- naive:
- 10.75
- skill:
- 50
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsMiami DolphinsAug 27, 2025
Miami Dolphins to finish with 7 wins
“I will say it's a seven and ten Dolphins year, and I will go slightly under.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+50 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- MIA
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- 50
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksNew England PatriotsAug 27, 2025
New England Patriots to make the playoffs
“I think the Patriots win nine or ten games, can make the playoffs”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsCincinnati BengalsAug 27, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals to finish with 9 wins
“the Bengals have a carbon copy year of last year. They win nine games, they missed the playoffs, and they fire their head coach.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 45-10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CIN
- naive:
- 8.75
- skill:
- -10
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 45
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsHouston TexansAug 27, 2025
Houston Texans to finish with 10 wins
“I don't think they're a dominant team... but I think they can get to ten wins.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 45+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 45
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsDenver BroncosAug 27, 2025
Denver Broncos to finish with 7 wins
“I think it is more than on the board that this team goes seven and ten. They are more likely to go seven and ten than ten and seven.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 5-10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- -10
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 5
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsKansas City ChiefsAug 27, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 13 wins
“Twelve and five would disappoint me. I expect thirteen and four or better.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsLos Angeles ChargersAug 27, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 9 wins
“I think they probably go nine and eight and just miss out on the playoffs.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- naive:
- 9.75
- skill:
- -30
- what happened:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Positional FinishesBrock BowersLas Vegas RaidersAug 27, 2025
Brock Bowers to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards
“I think brock Bowers is going to have the best statistical season of any tight end.”
Miss · 25Scored 25a naive guess scored 25+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Brock Bowers
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 25
- position:
- TE
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 1
- actual finish:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Depth Chart CallsShedeur SandersCleveland BrownsAug 27, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be 3rd on the depth chart
“he started camp fourth string, he stayed fourth string. He's now third string because one of the strings is on the Raiders... he is fairly right now their third best option to starting quarterback”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CLE
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Bucky BrooksRoster Spot Calls · Josh JohnsonMiss · 0Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Jared KochRoster Spot Calls · Lewis BondHit · 100Koch argues Kayshon Boutte is a winner in the trade to Houston, likely to see many more snaps and potentially post a career season, while Xavier Hutchinson's path to a breakout gets harder. He also sees Kamari Ramsey stepping up as the primary backup safety behind a top three of Bullock, Pitre and Blankenship, and views Jared Wayne as a fringe roster player squeezed by receivers he calls virtual locks.
- Lance ZierleinRoster Spot Calls · Lewis BondHit · 100Zierlein expects Texans QB C.J. Stroud to play roughly 10-12 plays in Thursday's preseason game, with Davis Mills going to halftime and newly signed Brett Rypien playing the entire second half. He also said if Tank Dell isn't ready, Lewis Bond and Jaden Hall would both likely make the roster, and predicted Keelan Rutledge will be the starting center with Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith starting.
- Lance ZierleinRoster Spot Calls · Lewis BondHit · 100Zierlein expects Trevor Goosby, Texas' starting left tackle, to be a first-round NFL draft pick, and thinks Quinn Ewers may struggle to stay on the Dolphins' roster beyond this year. He also predicts the Texans' preseason quarterback usage: C.J. Stroud around 10-12 plays, Davis Mills through the first half, and Brett Rypien for the second half. If Tank Dell isn't ready, he thinks Lewis Bond and Jaden Hall could both make the roster.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100An unsigned CBS Sports preseason review grading all 32 teams, which along the way stakes out a number of depth-chart calls for Week 1 and beyond — including Deshaun Watson opening as Cleveland's starter, Fernando Mendoza taking over as Las Vegas' QB1 by season's end, and Minnesota's Murray-Wentz-McCarthy quarterback order.
- Ryan WilsonDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100A CBS Sports piece states Deshaun Watson has won Cleveland's starting quarterback job for Week 1 with Shedeur Sanders next in line, while arguing Watson will not play like even an average NFL quarterback and that none of the Browns' current young passers should stop them from drafting a first-round quarterback next April.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- John MiddlekauffSeason Win Totals · San Francisco 49ersClose · 60Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Detroit LionsHit · 100Sherman picks the Chiefs to beat the Bills in the AFC Championship Game despite Buffalo's turnover dominance, and picks the Commanders to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. He also expects Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year, though he hedges that voters may give it to Lamar or Josh Allen.
- Chris BrockmanSeason Win Totals · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Brockman pitched that the Eagles are the NFL's best team and that Saquon Barkley will win MVP as the first non-quarterback since 2011. He also declared the AFC playoff field already set with six weeks to go, said the Cowboys will make the playoffs, predicted Buffalo would blast the 49ers, and reiterated his earlier call that Carolina would win five or six games.
- JP AcostaSeason Win Totals · New York GiantsClose · 40Acosta expects John Harbaugh's Giants to jump to roughly seven wins in year one, and forecast several offseason moves: Aaron Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh, Daniel Jones returning to the Colts, Kirk Cousins being released by Atlanta, and Brandon Aiyuk leaving San Francisco.