Nick Wright· Apr 8, 2025
Nick Wright gave his early AFC win-total leans: overs on the Jets, Ravens, Jaguars, Chiefs and Raiders, plus projected win ranges for the Dolphins, Texans, Chargers and Broncos, and predicted the Raiders take Ashton Jeanty at No. 6.
“I like the Raiders over six and a half.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
10 checkable claims — 9 season win totals and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 10 have settled, averaging 42 out of 100, against 36.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
winsTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Season Win TotalsDenver BroncosApr 8, 2025
Denver Broncos to finish with 9–10 wins
“I think both those teams are gonna be hovering around at the end of the year eight nine to ten wins”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 5+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 5
- predicted:
- 9–10 wins (9–10 wins)
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsLos Angeles ChargersApr 8, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 9–10 wins
“I think both those teams are gonna be hovering around at the end of the year eight nine to ten wins”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 75+10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- naive:
- 9.75
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 9–10 wins (9–10 wins)
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsMiami DolphinsApr 8, 2025
Miami Dolphins to finish with 8–9 wins
“I think the Dolphins will win eight or nine games. That is perfect.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 75+10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- MIA
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 8–9 wins (8–9 wins)
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsHouston TexansApr 8, 2025
Houston Texans to finish with 9–10 wins
“So it feels like a nine or ten win team. Will stay away from it.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 45+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 45
- predicted:
- 9–10 wins (9–10 wins)
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsJacksonville JaguarsApr 8, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 8 wins
“I am with the Jacksonville Jaguars over seven and a half.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsNew York JetsApr 8, 2025
New York Jets to finish with 6 wins
“I could absolutely see Aaron Glenn getting there, that team finding its way to seven wins. I like the Jets over.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 25+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 25
- predicted:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsKansas City ChiefsApr 8, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 12 wins
“So yeah, I'm not the Chiefs stats an over... Chiefs over eleven and a half”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsLas Vegas RaidersApr 8, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 7 wins
“I love the over for the Las Vegas Raiders... I like the Raiders over six and a half.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 35-30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- -30
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 35
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Ashton Jeanty to be picked at number 6
“They are going to be able to draft an impact player at number six. Pete, I think maybe Ashton Genty.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ashton Jeanty
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Season Win TotalsBaltimore RavensApr 8, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to finish with 12 wins
“This is a tentative over for Baltimore... but I lean over for Baltimore.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 55-70 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- naive:
- 10.25
- skill:
- -70
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 55
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Bradley LockerTrade and Signing Calls · Mazi SmithHit · 100Locker lists 10 players on the roster bubble entering 2026, suggesting Tyrone Tracy may not make the Giants' 53, Broderick Jones could be traded or cut by Pittsburgh, Dillon Gabriel may lose the Browns' QB3 job, Evan Neal's Giants tenure may end, and Will Levis will likely be traded or cut by Tennessee.
- Carter BahnsScore Predictions · Jacksonville JaguarsClose · 50He picks Jacksonville to win in Denver, arguing the market still undervalues the Jaguars and that the Broncos' offense under new play-caller Davis Webb won't score enough to keep pace.
- Joshua SchulmanGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Schulman endorses the view that the Chiefs will beat the Colts in their Sunday night matchup, calling ESPN's heavy lean toward Kansas City a fair assessment.
- Colin CowherdGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Cowherd repeats his claim that Caleb Williams will be viewed as a top four or five quarterback by the end of the season, restates his preseason pick of the Ravens to win their division, and expects a angry Houston defense to beat Cincinnati on Sunday.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Brew stood by the Lions as division winners and playoff team, picked the Texans over Cincinnati, the Bears over Minnesota, the Patriots to beat Pittsburgh with a solid Drake Maye game, flagged Jacksonville over Denver as his upset alert, and said he still feels good about the Ravens winning the AFC.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to beat the Rams outright, backed Jacksonville over Denver, Cincinnati over Houston and Chicago over Minnesota in the chips segment, endorsed Buffalo as the AFC's Super Bowl representative, and predicted Deshaun Watson has started his last NFL game.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- John MiddlekauffSeason Win Totals · San Francisco 49ersClose · 60Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Cowherd takes the Titans over their five-and-a-half win total on the strength of Cam Ward and Brian Callahan, calls New England an eight-to-nine win team, picks Green Bay to win the NFC North, expects the Giants to lose all four games to Washington and Philadelphia, and sketches a quarterback ranking with C.J. Stroud around 10th and Baker Mayfield 11th.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Detroit LionsHit · 100Sherman picks the Chiefs to beat the Bills in the AFC Championship Game despite Buffalo's turnover dominance, and picks the Commanders to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. He also expects Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year, though he hedges that voters may give it to Lamar or Josh Allen.
- Chris BrockmanSeason Win Totals · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Brockman pitched that the Eagles are the NFL's best team and that Saquon Barkley will win MVP as the first non-quarterback since 2011. He also declared the AFC playoff field already set with six weeks to go, said the Cowboys will make the playoffs, predicted Buffalo would blast the 49ers, and reiterated his earlier call that Carolina would win five or six games.