Rosenthal's under picks and a few freebie leans: Colts under 7.5 (possibly the worst team), Commanders under 9.5, Saints under 5.5 (possibly 2-15), Bears under 8.5, plus stated likes on Dolphins under 8.5, Giants over 5.5 and Ravens over 11.5.

6 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Season Win TotalsWashington CommandersAug 28, 2025

  “I'll vote Commanders under nine and a half.”

  Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skill
  How this was scored

  team:

  WAS

  naive:

  10.25

  skill:

  40

  what happened:

  5

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  5

  accuracy:

  20

  baseline:

  0

  predicted:

  9

  difficulty:

  2

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  18

  Think this is wrong?

• Season Win TotalsIndianapolis ColtsAug 28, 2025

  “It is the Indianapolis Colt. Let's go under.”

  Scored 80a naive guess scored 95-30 skill
  How this was scored

  team:

  IND

  naive:

  8.25

  skill:

  -30

  what happened:

  8

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  5

  accuracy:

  80

  baseline:

  95

  predicted:

  7

  difficulty:

  2

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  18

  Think this is wrong?

• Season Win TotalsBaltimore RavensAug 28, 2025

  “The Ravens over eleven and a half doesn't take a lot of guts, but I do think they'll they'll get there.”

  Scored 20a naive guess scored 55-70 skill
  How this was scored

  team:

  BAL

  naive:

  10.25

  skill:

  -70

  what happened:

  8

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  5

  accuracy:

  20

  baseline:

  55

  predicted:

  12

  difficulty:

  2

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  18

  Think this is wrong?

• Season Win TotalsNew York GiantsAug 28, 2025

  “The Giants over five and a half takes the little guts, but I do believe in it.”

  Scored 60a naive guess scored 65-10 skill
  How this was scored

  team:

  NYG

  naive:

  5.75

  skill:

  -10

  what happened:

  4

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  5

  accuracy:

  60

  baseline:

  65

  predicted:

  6

  difficulty:

  2

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  18

  Think this is wrong?

• Season Win TotalsChicago BearsAug 28, 2025

  “going Bears under for the fourth straight year, even though I do think they will be better eight and a half”

  Scored 40a naive guess scored 15+50 skill
  How this was scored

  team:

  CHI

  naive:

  6.75

  skill:

  50

  what happened:

  11

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  5

  accuracy:

  40

  baseline:

  15

  predicted:

  8

  difficulty:

  2

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  18

  Think this is wrong?

• Season Win TotalsNew Orleans SaintsAug 28, 2025

  “I'm taking Saints under five and a half before anyone else does”

  Scored 80a naive guess scored 85-10 skill
  How this was scored

  team:

  NO

  naive:

  6.75

  skill:

  -10

  what happened:

  6

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  5

  accuracy:

  80

  baseline:

  85

  predicted:

  5

  difficulty:

  2

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  18

  Think this is wrong?