Rich Hribar · Sep 1, 2024

Hribar published full statistical projections and fantasy rankings for 500+ players for the 2024 NFL season, ordering quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends by projected fantasy points and projecting individual passing, rushing and receiving lines.

“The table below has my fantasy football projections for all quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.”

published in writing · Sharp Football Analysis · read the original →

47 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Patrick Mahomes KC QB ... 4,752.7”
Scored 65.3a naive guess scored 49.52+31.55 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2936.62
skill:
31.55
what happened:
3928
player:
Patrick Mahomes
season:
2024
accuracy:
65.3
baseline:
49.52
predicted:
4752.7
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
4183
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1690.24
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Patrick Mahomes ... 31.9”
Scored 63.01a naive guess scored 56.32+13.37 skill
How this was scored
naive:
20.32
skill:
13.37
what happened:
26
player:
Patrick Mahomes
season:
2024
accuracy:
63.01
baseline:
56.32
predicted:
31.9
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
27
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Anthony Richardson ... 3,350.4”
Scored 8.29a naive guess scored 24.99-33.4 skill
How this was scored
naive:
1133.62
skill:
-33.4
what happened:
1814
player:
Anthony Richardson
season:
2024
accuracy:
8.29
baseline:
24.99
predicted:
3350.4
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
577
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1690.24
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“C.J. Stroud HOU QB ... 4,895.1”
Scored 52.27a naive guess scored 55.57-6.6 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2899.12
skill:
-6.6
what happened:
3727
player:
C.J. Stroud
season:
2024
accuracy:
52.27
baseline:
55.57
predicted:
4895.1
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
4108
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1690.24
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Fantasy RankingsSep 1, 2024
“CeeDee Lamb DAL WR 303.6 ... Tyreek Hill MIA WR 291.2 ... Nico Collins HOU WR 200.6”
Scored 69.92a naive guess scored 50+39.85 skill
How this was scored
naive:
a coin-flip ordering scores 50
skill:
39.85
placed:
20
season:
2024
players:
20
accuracy:
69.92
baseline:
50
by position:
WR 20: 69.92
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
could not place:
0
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Lamar Jackson ... 3,630.2”
Scored 74.03a naive guess scored 28.67+90.71 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2684.12
skill:
90.71
what happened:
4172
player:
Lamar Jackson
season:
2024
accuracy:
74.03
baseline:
28.67
predicted:
3630.2
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
3678
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1690.24
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Josh Allen BUF QB ... 4,472.1”
Scored 66.86a naive guess scored 60.71+12.29 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2998.12
skill:
12.29
what happened:
3731
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2024
accuracy:
66.86
baseline:
60.71
predicted:
4472.1
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
4306
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1690.24
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Fantasy RankingsSep 1, 2024
“Christian McCaffrey SF RB 306.2 ... Breece Hall NYJ RB 267.0 ... David Montgomery DET RB 171.1”
Scored 57.29a naive guess scored 50+14.59 skill
How this was scored
naive:
a coin-flip ordering scores 50
skill:
14.59
placed:
20
season:
2024
players:
20
accuracy:
57.29
baseline:
50
by position:
RB 20: 57.29
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
could not place:
0
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Christian McCaffrey ... 1,276.7 10.6”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
naive:
9.37
skill:
0
what happened:
0
player:
Christian McCaffrey
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
10.6
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
14
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
4.74
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Breece Hall ... 91.1 65.6 504.9”
Scored 73.78a naive guess scored 66.42+14.72 skill
How this was scored
naive:
47.43
skill:
14.72
what happened:
57
player:
Breece Hall
season:
2024
accuracy:
73.78
baseline:
66.42
predicted:
65.6
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
76
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
18.86
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Christian McCaffrey ... 586.4 4.5”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
naive:
357.16
skill:
0
what happened:
146
player:
Christian McCaffrey
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
586.4
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
564
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
150.31
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Christian McCaffrey SF RB ... 266.0 1,276.7 10.6”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
naive:
924.82
skill:
0
what happened:
202
player:
Christian McCaffrey
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
1276.7
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1459
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Anthony Richardson IND QB ... 159.6 877.8 9.6”
Scored 13.69a naive guess scored 0+27.39 skill
How this was scored
naive:
149.14
skill:
27.39
what happened:
499
player:
Anthony Richardson
season:
2024
accuracy:
13.69
baseline:
0
predicted:
877.8
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
136
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
162.28
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Christian McCaffrey ... 86.2 69.0 586.4 4.5”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
naive:
42.93
skill:
0
what happened:
15
player:
Christian McCaffrey
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
69
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
67
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
18.86
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Jalen Hurts ... 673.3 11.2”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 28.37+63.25 skill
How this was scored
naive:
8.99
skill:
63.25
what happened:
14
player:
Jalen Hurts
season:
2024
accuracy:
60
baseline:
28.37
predicted:
11.2
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
15
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
2.97
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Lamar Jackson BAL QB ... 139.7 851.9 4.2”
Scored 86.21a naive guess scored 7.46+157.49 skill
How this was scored
naive:
491.64
skill:
157.49
what happened:
915
player:
Lamar Jackson
season:
2024
accuracy:
86.21
baseline:
7.46
predicted:
851.9
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
821
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
162.28
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Josh Allen ... 537.6 10.2”
Scored 70a naive guess scored 49.77+40.46 skill
How this was scored
naive:
8.99
skill:
40.46
what happened:
12
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2024
accuracy:
70
baseline:
49.77
predicted:
10.2
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
15
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
2.97
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Sam LaPorta DET TE ... 132.7 94.3 999.1 9.4”
Scored 45.33a naive guess scored 55.96-21.26 skill
How this was scored
naive:
566.13
skill:
-21.26
what happened:
726
player:
Sam LaPorta
season:
2024
accuracy:
45.33
baseline:
55.96
predicted:
999.1
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
889
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
243.26
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Tyreek Hill MIA WR ... 173.6 119.8 1,701.0 9.6”
Scored 12.76a naive guess scored 75.65-125.78 skill
How this was scored
naive:
1091.95
skill:
-125.78
what happened:
959
player:
Tyreek Hill
season:
2024
accuracy:
12.76
baseline:
75.65
predicted:
1701
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1799
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
384.91
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Breece Hall NYJ RB ... 258.4 1,188.5 9.0”
Scored 47.41a naive guess scored 58.06-21.3 skill
How this was scored
naive:
692.32
skill:
-21.3
what happened:
876
player:
Breece Hall
season:
2024
accuracy:
47.41
baseline:
58.06
predicted:
1188.5
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
994
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Travis Kelce KC TE ... 133.8 96.3 1,079.0 8.2”
Scored 52.55a naive guess scored 49.12+6.86 skill
How this was scored
naive:
613.63
skill:
6.86
what happened:
823
player:
Travis Kelce
season:
2024
accuracy:
52.55
baseline:
49.12
predicted:
1079
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
984
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
243.26
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Saquon Barkley PHI RB ... 266.8 1,174.1 6.7”
Scored 17.12a naive guess scored 0+34.23 skill
How this was scored
naive:
676.32
skill:
34.23
what happened:
2005
player:
Saquon Barkley
season:
2024
accuracy:
17.12
baseline:
0
predicted:
1174.1
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
962
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Justin Jefferson ... 114.1 1,665.2”
Scored 80.54a naive guess scored 0+161.09 skill
How this was scored
naive:
49.3
skill:
161.09
what happened:
103
player:
Justin Jefferson
season:
2024
accuracy:
80.54
baseline:
0
predicted:
114.1
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
68
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
30.61
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Josh Allen BUF QB ... 28.2”
Scored 98.58a naive guess scored 52.3+92.56 skill
How this was scored
naive:
21.32
skill:
92.56
what happened:
28
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2024
accuracy:
98.58
baseline:
52.3
predicted:
28.2
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
29
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Jalen Hurts ... 149.6 673.3 11.2”
Scored 87.14a naive guess scored 21.79+130.7 skill
How this was scored
naive:
383.64
skill:
130.7
what happened:
630
player:
Jalen Hurts
season:
2024
accuracy:
87.14
baseline:
21.79
predicted:
673.3
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
605
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
162.28
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“CeeDee Lamb ... 1,643.1 10.7”
Scored 45.34a naive guess scored 78.72-66.77 skill
How this was scored
naive:
1066.95
skill:
-66.77
what happened:
1194
player:
CeeDee Lamb
season:
2024
accuracy:
45.34
baseline:
78.72
predicted:
1643.1
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1749
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
384.91
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Bijan Robinson ATL RB ... 231.0 1,062.6 6.9”
Scored 45.96a naive guess scored 0+91.92 skill
How this was scored
naive:
683.32
skill:
91.92
what happened:
1456
player:
Bijan Robinson
season:
2024
accuracy:
45.96
baseline:
0
predicted:
1062.6
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
976
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Jalen Hurts PHI QB ... 4,069.2”
Scored 42.68a naive guess scored 91.12-96.88 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2774.12
skill:
-96.88
what happened:
2903
player:
Jalen Hurts
season:
2024
accuracy:
42.68
baseline:
91.12
predicted:
4069.2
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
3858
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1690.24
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Tyreek Hill ... 119.8 1,701.0”
Scored 35.23a naive guess scored 84.7-98.95 skill
How this was scored
naive:
74.8
skill:
-98.95
what happened:
81
player:
Tyreek Hill
season:
2024
accuracy:
35.23
baseline:
84.7
predicted:
119.8
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
119
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
30.61
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR ... 170.2 112.3 1,404.1 11.2”
Scored 64.41a naive guess scored 0+128.83 skill
How this was scored
naive:
800.45
skill:
128.83
what happened:
1708
player:
Ja'Marr Chase
season:
2024
accuracy:
64.41
baseline:
0
predicted:
1404.1
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1216
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
384.91
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Fantasy RankingsSep 1, 2024
“Josh Allen BUF QB 374.2 ... Jalen Hurts PHI QB 370.5 ... Patrick Mahomes KC QB 334.0 ... Aaron Rodgers NYJ QB 287.5”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 50+20 skill
How this was scored
naive:
a coin-flip ordering scores 50
skill:
20
placed:
15
season:
2024
players:
15
accuracy:
60
baseline:
50
by position:
QB 15: 60
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
could not place:
0
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR ... 169.0 124.2 1,415.7 8.7”
Scored 85.19a naive guess scored 30.09+110.18 skill
How this was scored
naive:
74.8
skill:
110.18
what happened:
115
player:
Amon-Ra St. Brown
season:
2024
accuracy:
85.19
baseline:
30.09
predicted:
124.2
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
119
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
30.61
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Travis Kelce ... 96.3 1,079.0”
Scored 98.56a naive guess scored 20.84+155.42 skill
How this was scored
naive:
58.61
skill:
155.42
what happened:
97
player:
Travis Kelce
season:
2024
accuracy:
98.56
baseline:
20.84
predicted:
96.3
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
93
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
24.22
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Justin Jefferson MIN WR ... 184.0 114.1 1,665.2 8.6”
Scored 84.12a naive guess scored 0+168.24 skill
How this was scored
naive:
729.45
skill:
168.24
what happened:
1533
player:
Justin Jefferson
season:
2024
accuracy:
84.12
baseline:
0
predicted:
1665.2
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1074
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
384.91
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Mark Andrews BAL TE ... 123.1 84.9 1,036.1 8.5”
Scored 29.91a naive guess scored 16.98+25.86 skill
How this was scored
naive:
393.63
skill:
25.86
what happened:
673
player:
Mark Andrews
season:
2024
accuracy:
29.91
baseline:
16.98
predicted:
1036.1
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
544
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
243.26
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Amon-Ra St. Brown ... 1,415.7 8.7”
Scored 78.43a naive guess scored 50.43+56 skill
How this was scored
naive:
949.95
skill:
56
what happened:
1263
player:
Amon-Ra St. Brown
season:
2024
accuracy:
78.43
baseline:
50.43
predicted:
1415.7
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1515
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
384.91
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“C.J. Stroud ... 30.4 9.1”
Scored 31.58a naive guess scored 83.22-103.28 skill
How this was scored
naive:
18.32
skill:
-103.28
what happened:
20
player:
C.J. Stroud
season:
2024
accuracy:
31.58
baseline:
83.22
predicted:
30.4
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
23
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Derrick Henry BAL RB ... 264.3 1,163.1 11.6”
Scored 21.09a naive guess scored 0+42.19 skill
How this was scored
naive:
778.82
skill:
42.19
what happened:
1921
player:
Derrick Henry
season:
2024
accuracy:
21.09
baseline:
0
predicted:
1163.1
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1167
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“CeeDee Lamb DAL WR ... 181.9 126.4 1,643.1 10.7”
Scored 59.81a naive guess scored 63.97-8.32 skill
How this was scored
naive:
82.8
skill:
-8.32
what happened:
101
player:
CeeDee Lamb
season:
2024
accuracy:
59.81
baseline:
63.97
predicted:
126.4
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
135
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
30.61
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Josh Allen ... 107.5 537.6 10.2”
Scored 97.54a naive guess scored 29.24+136.6 skill
How this was scored
naive:
343.14
skill:
136.6
what happened:
531
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2024
accuracy:
97.54
baseline:
29.24
predicted:
537.6
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
524
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
162.28
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Fantasy RankingsSep 1, 2024
“Travis Kelce KC TE 205.2 ... Sam LaPorta DET TE 203.6 ... Pat Freiermuth PIT TE 129.9”
Scored 65.73a naive guess scored 50+31.47 skill
How this was scored
naive:
a coin-flip ordering scores 50
skill:
31.47
placed:
12
season:
2024
players:
12
accuracy:
65.73
baseline:
50
by position:
TE 12: 65.73
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
could not place:
0
weeks left when called:
18
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Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Jonathan Taylor IND RB ... 271.8 1,223.2 9.5”
Scored 70.96a naive guess scored 0+141.91 skill
How this was scored
naive:
565.82
skill:
141.91
what happened:
1431
player:
Jonathan Taylor
season:
2024
accuracy:
70.96
baseline:
0
predicted:
1223.2
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
741
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
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Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Derrick Henry ... 1,163.1 11.6”
Scored 45a naive guess scored 4.61+80.78 skill
How this was scored
naive:
8.37
skill:
80.78
what happened:
16
player:
Derrick Henry
season:
2024
accuracy:
45
baseline:
4.61
predicted:
11.6
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
12
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
4.74
zero at percent out:
50
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Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Saquon Barkley ... 1,174.1 6.7”
Scored 3.08a naive guess scored 0+6.15 skill
How this was scored
naive:
5.37
skill:
6.15
what happened:
13
player:
Saquon Barkley
season:
2024
accuracy:
3.08
baseline:
0
predicted:
6.7
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
6
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
4.74
zero at percent out:
50
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Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Ja'Marr Chase ... 1,404.1 11.2”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“CeeDee Lamb ... 1,643.1 10.7”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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Player Season NumbersSep 1, 2024
“Sam LaPorta ... 999.1 9.4”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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