Ryan Wormeli· May 31, 2025
Warmley expects Derrick Henry to post another huge rushing season in Baltimore, sees real upside in Brian Robinson Jr. as Washington's lead back, and calls Javonte Williams, Justice Hill, Jordan Mason and Bijan Robinson values at their current costs.
“if he's healthy this year, he's scoring another twelve touchdowns, He's getting fifteen hundred rushing yards in a healthy season”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
8 checkable claims — 4 player season numbers and 4 sleeper calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 54.8 out of 100, against 26.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsBijan RobinsonAtlanta FalconsMay 31, 2025
Bijan Robinson to outplay his draft cost (third or fourth pick)
“I think Bjeon is going to win leagues this year, especially if you're getting him like third or fourth pick in your drafts”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- third or fourth pick
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Bijan Robinson
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB4
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsJustice HillBaltimore RavensMay 31, 2025
Justice Hill to outplay his draft cost (RB sixty six)
“Justin Hill is going he is going to outperform MARB sixty six if he's healthy. I guarantee you”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB sixty six
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Justice Hill
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB42
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB66
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsJavonte WilliamsDallas CowboysMay 31, 2025
Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost (RB thirty seven)
“I wonder if Javonte Williams is a screaming value at RB thirty seven, even if it feels gross to draft him... I will be ranking him ahead of RB thirty seven. I guarantee it”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB thirty seven
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Javonte Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB32
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB11
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsJordan MasonMinnesota VikingsMay 31, 2025
Jordan Mason to outplay his draft cost (outside the top forty running backs)
“I like Jordan Mason a lot. If he's going out to the top forty running backs”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- outside the top forty running backs
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Jordan Mason
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB33
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB33
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Brian Robinson to record 12 rushing tds
“I could see a real path to like twelve hundred yards and twelve touchdowns this season”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 6.32
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 2
- player:
- Brian Robinson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 12
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 8
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 4.63
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Brian Robinson to record 1,200 rushing yards
“If Brian Robinson is the lead back in this offense, like I could see a real path to like twelve hundred yards and twelve touchdowns this season”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 35.85-71.7 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 588.89
- skill:
- -71.7
- what happened:
- 400
- player:
- Brian Robinson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 35.85
- predicted:
- 1200
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 799
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 378.78
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Derrick Henry to record 12 rushing tds
“if he's healthy this year, he's scoring another twelve touchdowns”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 28.96+42.07 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 10.32
- skill:
- 42.07
- what happened:
- 16
- player:
- Derrick Henry
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 28.96
- predicted:
- 12
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 16
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 4.63
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Derrick Henry to record 1,500 rushing yards
“he was amazing last year and if he's healthy this year, he's scoring another twelve touchdowns, He's getting fifteen hundred rushing yards in a healthy season”
Hit · 88Scored 88.09a naive guess scored 44.19+87.8 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 1149.89
- skill:
- 87.8
- what happened:
- 1595
- player:
- Derrick Henry
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 88.09
- baseline:
- 44.19
- predicted:
- 1500
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 1921
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 378.78
- zero at percent out:
- 50
What others said about the same people
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandMiss · 0Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- Seth WalderTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Walder proposes five trades he believes should happen before Week 1 of the 2026 season: Jessie Bates III to the 49ers, Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Patriots, Keon Coleman to the Colts, Walker Little to the Cardinals, and Kayshon Boutte to the Commanders, where he says Boutte would immediately be Washington's No. 2 receiver.
- Garrett PodellTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100A CBS Sports report frames Stefon Diggs as filling Washington's vacant No. 2 receiver role opposite Terry McLaurin after his reported one-year deal, expecting him in that spot in the 2026 passing game with Jayden Daniels.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100In a quarterback rapid-fire segment and later discussion, Brooks named starters for several clubs (Kyler Murray over JJ McCarthy in Minnesota, Shedeur Sanders in Cleveland, Tua in Atlanta, Jeremiah Love as Arizona's starting running back), called Chris Olave a No. 1 receiver, backed Stefon Diggs landing with the Commanders and Aaron Donald returning to the Rams, argued Baker Mayfield belongs among the top 15-17 quarterbacks, and published a top-five defensive tackle list topped by Jeffrey Simmons.
- Joe MarinoTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100Marino projects DJ Moore to bounce back in Buffalo's offense with over 1,000 receiving yards (talking up around 1,200), and expects rookie cornerback Davison Igbinosun (IGB) to win a starting job opposite Christian Benford. He also thinks free agent Stefon Diggs ends up signing with Washington.
- Gregg RosenthalTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100Rosenthal picked rookies he expects to start right away — a Steelers left tackle and Colts linebacker — said Terry McLaurin is Washington's clear No. 1 receiver, and said he wouldn't be surprised if the Commanders signed Stefon Diggs as a solid No. 2.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Derek BrownSleeper Calls · Travis HunterHit · 100Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.
- Tom StrachanSleeper Calls · Ricky PearsallHit · 100Tom Strachan backed Xavier Worthy, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Darnell Mooney, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter as values at their draft costs, while avoiding Jerry Jeudy and the Cleveland receivers.
- Chris WelshSleeper Calls · Tyler WarrenHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Pat FitzmauriceSleeper Calls · Rashee RiceMiss · 0Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.
- Joe PisapiaSleeper Calls · Tyreek HillMiss · 0Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.
- Jake CielySleeper Calls · Braelon AllenMiss · 0Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.