Ryan Wormeli · May 31, 2025

Warmley expects Derrick Henry to post another huge rushing season in Baltimore, sees real upside in Brian Robinson Jr. as Washington's lead back, and calls Javonte Williams, Justice Hill, Jordan Mason and Bijan Robinson values at their current costs.

“if he's healthy this year, he's scoring another twelve touchdowns, He's getting fifteen hundred rushing yards in a healthy season”

said on air or in an interview · read the original →

8 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Player Season NumbersMay 31, 2025
“I could see a real path to like twelve hundred yards and twelve touchdowns this season”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
naive:
6.32
skill:
0
what happened:
2
player:
Brian Robinson
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
12
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
8
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
4.63
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersMay 31, 2025
“If Brian Robinson is the lead back in this offense, like I could see a real path to like twelve hundred yards and twelve touchdowns this season”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 35.85-71.7 skill
How this was scored
naive:
588.89
skill:
-71.7
what happened:
400
player:
Brian Robinson
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
35.85
predicted:
1200
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
799
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
378.78
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersMay 31, 2025
“if he's healthy this year, he's scoring another twelve touchdowns”
Scored 50a naive guess scored 28.96+42.07 skill
How this was scored
naive:
10.32
skill:
42.07
what happened:
16
player:
Derrick Henry
season:
2025
accuracy:
50
baseline:
28.96
predicted:
12
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
16
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
4.63
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersMay 31, 2025
“he was amazing last year and if he's healthy this year, he's scoring another twelve touchdowns, He's getting fifteen hundred rushing yards in a healthy season”
Scored 88.09a naive guess scored 44.19+87.8 skill
How this was scored
naive:
1149.89
skill:
87.8
what happened:
1595
player:
Derrick Henry
season:
2025
accuracy:
88.09
baseline:
44.19
predicted:
1500
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1921
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
378.78
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsMay 31, 2025
“I think Bjeon is going to win leagues this year, especially if you're getting him like third or fourth pick in your drafts”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsMay 31, 2025
“I like Jordan Mason a lot. If he's going out to the top forty running backs”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsMay 31, 2025
“Justin Hill is going he is going to outperform MARB sixty six if he's healthy. I guarantee you”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsMay 31, 2025
“I wonder if Javonte Williams is a screaming value at RB thirty seven, even if it feels gross to draft him... I will be ranking him ahead of RB thirty seven. I guarantee it”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?