Tom Strachan· Aug 23, 2025

Strachan's favorite pick per round: Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01, Brock Bowers in round two, Jayden Daniels in round three, Davante Adams (double-digit TDs) in round four, then Xavier Worthy, Calvin Ridley, Jaylen Warren, Emeka Egbuka, Justin Fields, Zach Charbonnet and late-round fliers; his one player to leave every draft with is Tucker Kraft.

“I wouldn't be surprised at all if he hit double digit touchdowns this year.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

15 checkable claims — 14 sleeper calls and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 23 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 15 have settled, averaging 49.5 out of 100, against 46.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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15 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Sleeper Calls Zach Charbonnet Seattle SeahawksAug 23, 2025
Zach Charbonnet to outplay his draft cost (RB thirty five)
“It's Zach Charboney... Charbone at cost RB thirty five... he is a really good player”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
RB thirty five
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Zach Charbonnet
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB25
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB20
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Tyler AllgeierAug 23, 2025
Tyler Allgeier to outplay his draft cost (rounds eleven through fifteen)
“Yes, Colston Loveland, Austin Eckler, then Tyler L. G. Cam Ward and I've a missed one'm one Dale Robinson”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
rounds eleven through fifteen
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Tyler Allgeier
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB38
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB35
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Colston LovelandAug 23, 2025
Colston Loveland to outplay his draft cost (rounds eleven through fifteen)
“Yes, Colston Loveland, Austin Eckler, then Tyler L. G. Cam Ward and I've a missed one'm one Dale Robinson”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
rounds eleven through fifteen
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
200
player:
Colston Loveland
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
TE
had to beat:
TE12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
TE9
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Cam WardAug 23, 2025
Cam Ward to outplay his draft cost (rounds eleven through fifteen)
“Yes, Colston Loveland, Austin Eckler, then Tyler L. G. Cam Ward and I've a missed one'm one Dale Robinson”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
rounds eleven through fifteen
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
-200
player:
Cam Ward
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
QB
had to beat:
QB12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
QB22
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Justin Fields New York JetsAug 23, 2025
Justin Fields to outplay his draft cost (round nine)
“if you're looking for a massive upside swing at quarterback, Justin Fields, it's hard to go past him”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round nine
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Justin Fields
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
QB
had to beat:
QB31
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
QB28
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Xavier Worthy Kansas City ChiefsAug 23, 2025
Xavier Worthy to outplay his draft cost (round five)
“Xavier Worvy. I just think that it's all setting up to be another good season for Xavier Worvy... I'd be comfortable pushing him even a couple of picks higher”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round five
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Xavier Worthy
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR32
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR59
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Wan'Dale RobinsonAug 23, 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson to outplay his draft cost (rounds eleven through fifteen)
“Yes, Colston Loveland, Austin Eckler, then Tyler L. G. Cam Ward and I've a missed one'm one Dale Robinson”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
rounds eleven through fifteen
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Wan'Dale Robinson
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR53
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR22
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Austin EkelerAug 23, 2025
Austin Ekeler to outplay his draft cost (rounds eleven through fifteen)
“Yes, Colston Loveland, Austin Eckler, then Tyler L. G. Cam Ward and I've a missed one'm one Dale Robinson”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
rounds eleven through fifteen
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Austin Ekeler
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB36
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB103
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Jayden Daniels Washington CommandersAug 23, 2025
Jayden Daniels to outplay his draft cost (round three)
“But I went with Jane Daniel. And it's more because I think that there's still some meat left on the bone there.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round three
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Jayden Daniels
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
QB
had to beat:
QB5
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
QB34
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Brock Bowers Las Vegas RaidersAug 23, 2025
Brock Bowers to outplay his draft cost (round two)
“Round two is so stacked this year... but brock Bauers... I thought brock Powers was going to be firmly part of round one”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round two
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Brock Bowers
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
TE
had to beat:
TE2
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
TE8
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Tucker Kraft Green Bay PackersAug 23, 2025
Tucker Kraft to outplay his draft cost (outside of the top twelve tight ends)
“Took a Craft like just such a good player, and I can't understand why he's going outside of the top twelve tight ends.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
outside of the top twelve tight ends
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Tucker Kraft
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
TE
had to beat:
TE7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
TE17
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Calvin Ridley Tennessee TitansAug 23, 2025
Calvin Ridley to outplay his draft cost (round six)
“Kevin Ridley's been my go all off season. I think he's just been undervalued compared away should be.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round six
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Calvin Ridley
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR25
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR112
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Jaylen Warren Pittsburgh SteelersAug 23, 2025
Jaylen Warren to outplay his draft cost (RB twenty nine in real time ADP)
“My guy is Jalen Warren. I'll be twenty nine in real time ADP... it's very easy to buy into what Jalen Warren brings.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
RB twenty nine in real time ADP
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Jaylen Warren
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB40
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB17
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Davante Adams Los Angeles RamsAug 23, 2025
Davante Adams to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver eighteen overall)
“It's Stevane Adams wide receiver eighteen overall, and I would have taken him in in round three.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
wide receiver eighteen overall
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Davante Adams
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR7
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Davante Adams Los Angeles RamsAug 23, 2025
Davante Adams to record 10 receiving tds
“And I wouldn't be surprised at all if he hit double digit touchdowns this year.”
Close · 43Scored 42.86a naive guess scored 0+85.71 skill
How this was scored
naive:
5.7
skill:
85.71
what happened:
14
player:
Davante Adams
season:
2025
accuracy:
42.86
baseline:
0
predicted:
10
statistic:
receiving_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
8
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
3.4
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

Bradley LockerTrade and Signing Calls · Will LevisHit · 100
Locker lists 10 players on the roster bubble entering 2026, suggesting Tyrone Tracy may not make the Giants' 53, Broderick Jones could be traded or cut by Pittsburgh, Dillon Gabriel may lose the Browns' QB3 job, Evan Neal's Giants tenure may end, and Will Levis will likely be traded or cut by Tennessee.
Dharya SharmaTrade and Signing Calls · Will LevisHit · 100
Previewing the Titans' preseason opener, Sharma identifies five receivers as roster locks, expects Bryce Oliver to make the 53 on special teams value, and predicts Will Levis will not be on Tennessee's roster by September, likely being moved for a late-round pick.
Jonathan JonesTrade and Signing Calls · Will LevisHit · 100
Jones expects Anthony Richardson to be traded, likely for roughly a fifth-round pick, and to serve as a backup rather than a starter in 2026. He also lays out a series of quarterback-market predictions: Aaron Rodgers back with the Steelers, Tua off the Dolphins roster, Daniel Jones ultimately staying as the Colts' starter, Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders competing for Cleveland's QB1 job, Will Levis most likely of the veteran backups to be traded, and Kirk Cousins possibly landing in Arizona.
Jared DubinScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50
Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Giants on Monday Night Football, sticking with preseason expectations over Week 1 overreaction. He gives two conditional scores depending on whether Puka Nacua plays: a comfortable 27-17 win if Nacua suits up, and a narrow 17-16 win if he sits.
Dan OrlovskyGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100
Orlovsky said that even without Puka Nacua the Rams would find a way to beat the Giants on Monday night, though he thought the Giants would keep it within a touchdown.
Jared DubinScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 71
Dubin picked the Rams to beat the Giants 27-17 on Monday night.

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