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Chris Brockman· Sep 22, 2025

Brockman argued only about five teams can realistically win the Super Bowl, naming the Bills, Eagles, Ravens and Chargers among them; he also picked Justin Herbert as MVP through three weeks, called the Colts a top-five team with Daniel Jones as an MVP finalist, said the Bears will finish top two in the NFC North, said the Bengals' season is cooked and they'll pick in the top 10, said the Rams are the only NFC threat to the Eagles, and said the Bucs have a team-of-destiny feel.

“It feels like there's only about five teams that can win the Super Bowl.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 2 award picks, 1 conference champion, 1 power ranking, 1 super bowl pick, 1 surprise team call and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

5 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 5.2 out of 100, against 14.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia EaglesSep 22, 2025

    Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl

    “the Rams are still the only threat to the Eagles getting back to the Super Bowl in the NFC”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE,SEA
    difficulty:
    1.89
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksJustin HerbertLos Angeles ChargersSep 22, 2025

    Justin Herbert to win MVP

    “Justin Herbert. He's the MVP through the first three weeks. Hands down.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Justin Herbert
    season:
    2025
    winner:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16

    Think this is wrong?

  • Team Draft Slot CallsCincinnati BengalsSep 22, 2025

    Cincinnati Bengals to pick “picking in the top 10 this year” (picks 1–10)

    “Their season is absolutely cooked, and they're gonna be picking in the top 10 this year.”

    Miss · 26Scored 26.11a naive guess scored 73.84-90.22 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    CIN
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    they picked 17 the year before
    skill:
    -90.22
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    26.11
    baseline:
    73.84
    actual pick:
    41
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted pick:
    picking in the top 10 this year (picks 1–10)
    weeks left when called:
    16

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksDaniel JonesIndianapolis ColtsSep 22, 2025

    Daniel Jones to win MVP finalist

    “Danny Diamonds, Indiana Jones. He's gonna be an MVP finalist.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Daniel Jones
    season:
    2025
    winner:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16

    Think this is wrong?

  • Super Bowl PicksGreen Bay PackersSep 22, 2025

    Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl

    “Look, man. I have them to win the Super Bowl, but it seems like we crown the Packers a little too early.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champion:
    SEA
    runner up:
    NE
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16

    Think this is wrong?

  • Surprise Team CallsTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 22, 2025

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat expectations

    “The Bucks have that team of destiny feel to them after the first three games.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Power RankingsSep 22, 2025

    “But right now, through three weeks, Rich, the Colts are top five team in the NFL.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More award picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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