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Mike Tannenbaum· Sep 6, 2022

Tannenbaum picked Justin Herbert MVP, Herbert also for OPOY, Aaron Donald DPOY, Chris Olave OROY, Aidan Hutchinson DROY, Jameis Winston Comeback Player and Todd Bowles Coach of the Year.

“$30 million a year is the right number for Aaron Donald, who's the most important non-quarterback in the league.”

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Sep 7, 2022) →

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.

7 checkable claims — 6 award picks and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Award PicksJustin HerbertLos Angeles ChargersSep 6, 2022

    Justin Herbert to win Most Valuable Player

    “T2. Chargers QB Justin Herbert (3 votes: Matt Cassel, Mike Martz, Mike Tannenbaum)”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Justin Herbert
    season:
    2022
    winner:
    Patrick Mahomes
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksJustin HerbertLos Angeles ChargersSep 6, 2022

    Justin Herbert to win Offensive Player of the Year

    “Chargers QB Justin Herbert (1 vote: Tannenbaum)”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    offensive_player_of_the_year
    naive:
    the naive pick was Cooper Kupp, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Justin Herbert
    season:
    2022
    winner:
    Justin Jefferson
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksJameis WinstonNew Orleans SaintsSep 6, 2022

    Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year

    “1. Saints QB Jameis Winston (6 votes: ... Tannenbaum ...)”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    comeback_player_of_the_year
    naive:
    the naive pick was Joe Burrow, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Jameis Winston
    season:
    2022
    winner:
    Geno Smith
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksAaron DonaldLos Angeles RamsSep 6, 2022

    Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year

    “1. Rams DT Aaron Donald (5 votes: ... Tannenbaum)”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    defensive_player_of_the_year
    naive:
    the naive pick was T.J. Watt, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Aaron Donald
    season:
    2022
    winner:
    Nick Bosa
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Coach Award PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 6, 2022

    Todd Bowles to win Coach of the Year

    “Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (1 vote: Tannebaum)”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    coach_of_the_year
    coach:
    Todd Bowles
    naive:
    the naive pick was Mike Vrabel, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    season:
    2022
    winner:
    Brian Daboll
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksAidan HutchinsonDetroit LionsSep 6, 2022

    Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year

    “1. Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (10 votes: ... Tannenbaum ...)”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    defensive_rookie_of_the_year
    naive:
    the naive pick was Micah Parsons, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Aidan Hutchinson
    season:
    2022
    winner:
    Sauce Gardner
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksChris OlaveNew Orleans SaintsSep 6, 2022

    Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

    “1. Saints WR Chris Olave (6 votes: ... Tannenbaum ...)”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    offensive_rookie_of_the_year
    naive:
    the naive pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Chris Olave
    season:
    2022
    winner:
    Garrett Wilson
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More award picks

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