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Rich Eisen· Dec 23, 2024

Eisen said the Falcons will end up the NFC's four seed but will lose Sunday night in Washington, reiterated his earlier call of the Rams as NFC West champs, agreed the Chiefs are going to the Super Bowl, and said Michigan's Will Johnson will be a top-10 NFL draft pick.

“I think they're gonna lose in Washington.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 division winner, 1 game outcome pick, 1 mock draft pick and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 64 out of 100, against 70 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Seeding, Byes and Home FieldAtlanta FalconsDec 23, 2024

    Atlanta Falcons to take the top seed

    “I'll push back and call that an overreaction because the Atlanta Falcons are gonna be the the four seed.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-117 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    -117
    they picked:
    ATL
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    checked as:
    seeds 2–4 host a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
    actual tier:
    missed the playoffs
    difficulty:
    1.17
    the naive guess:
    where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
    weeks in the season:
    18
    claimed seed:
    4
    claimed tier:
    host
    weeks left when called:
    3

    Think this is wrong?

  • Conference ChampionsKansas City ChiefsDec 23, 2024

    Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl

    “That's not an overreaction, Chris. I've been saying it since the Tuesday before Labor Day.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    champions:
    PHI,KC
    difficulty:
    1.17
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    3
    reached the Super Bowl:
    yes
    lost the conference final:
    no

    Think this is wrong?

  • Division WinnersLos Angeles RamsDec 23, 2024

    Los Angeles Rams to win the division

    “I had the Rams hosting the Vikings on a Saturday night, the Rams as the, the NFC West champs ... I saw that one coming before anybody put their marker on the Rams to win the West”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+117 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    117
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    SF
    difficulty:
    1.17
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    3
    won the division:
    yes

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksWill JohnsonDec 23, 2024

    Will Johnson to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)

    “And we didn't have Will Johnson who may be a top 10 pick. He's gonna be a top 10 pick in in the NFL.”

    Miss · 20Scored 20.13a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Will Johnson
    season:
    2024
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    20.13
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    47
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    20.13
    predicted pick:
    top 10 pick (picks 1–10)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksWashington CommandersDec 23, 2024

    Washington Commanders to beat Atlanta

    “So for Atlanta to make it, they're going to have to get a little bit of help, I think, because, I think they're gonna lose in Washington.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    WAS
    score:
    24-30
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    WAS
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    WAS
    difficulty:
    1.17
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    3

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More conference champions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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