Fantasy Bust Calls
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 409
- Graded
- 38
- Average accuracy
- 57.9
- Pundits
- 47
9% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
38 / 409
graded
371 still pending
Who is good at fantasy bust calls
- Simon Hunter100 accuracy · 1 graded+200.0
- Derek Brown81 accuracy · 12 graded+125.0
- Andrew Erickson75 accuracy · 4 graded+100.0
- Chris Welsh75 accuracy · 4 graded+100.0
- Joe Pisapia50 accuracy · 4 graded+0.0
- Pat Fitzmaurice45 accuracy · 7 graded-20.0
- Jake Ciely33 accuracy · 4 graded-66.7
- Sean Kerner0 accuracy · 1 graded-200.0
- Ryan Wormeli0 accuracy · 1 graded-200.0
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)58.7 · 38 graded
Every fantasy bust calls take
226–250 of 409
Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (5.6 ADP/RB3)
Christian McCaffrey (5.6 ADP/RB3) and De’Von Achane (11.2 ADP/RB7) are missing. They are the only two backs in the top 12 I don’t want to draft when using a Hero RB strategy... Unfortunately, McCaffrey carries a high risk of injury.
De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (11.2 ADP/RB7)
De’Von Achane (11.2 ADP/RB7) are missing. They are the only two backs in the top 12 I don’t want to draft... over 50% of Achane’s fantasy production during the past two years has come in the passing game.
- PendingRichard JanvrinFantasy Bust Calls
Malik Nabers to fall short of his draft cost (MFL ADP: WR8)
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG) | MFL ADP: WR8 ... Nabers is without a doubt more than talented enough to be the WR8, but there are some red flags.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 17, 2026 - PendingRichard JanvrinFantasy Bust Calls
Carnell Tate to fall short of his draft cost (MFL ADP: WR22)
Carnell Tate (WR – TEN) | MFL ADP: WR22 ... I believe there are too many “cooks in the kitchen” from a receiver standpoint, along with a young quarterback and a new coaching staff, to feel good about him being a firm WR2.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 17, 2026 - PendingRichard JanvrinFantasy Bust Calls
Josh Jacobs to fall short of his draft cost (MFL ADP: RB18)
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB) | MFL ADP: RB18 ... Unless the value is way too good to pass up, stay clear of Jacobs.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 17, 2026 Cam Skattebo to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 4.05)
Between his return from a significant injury and the possibility of a three-man committee, he carries enough workload risk to make his fourth-round ADP difficult to justify.
TreVeyon Henderson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 5.08)
RB TreVeyon Henderson , New England Patriots (ADP: 5.08) ... If the two play at the level they did last season, Stevenson should remain the primary back, and Henderson would carry fantasy value mainly when the Patriots are blowing opponents out.
Rashee Rice to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 3.03)
Rashee Rice carries third-round risk: Potential changes to his role, recurring availability concerns and increased competition make his 3.03 consensus ADP difficult to trust.
Davante Adams to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 4.12)
Davante Adams faces touchdown regression: Adams scored a league-high 14 touchdowns last season, but his receptions and receiving yards per game were his lowest since 2015.
Lamar Jackson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 3.08)
the uncertainty surrounding his rushing workload, new coaching staff and supporting cast makes his top-five price difficult to justify when similar upside is available several rounds later
Rico Dowdle to fall short of his draft cost (RB32, 86th overall)
it’s possible Dowdle has a smaller role than some expect
Quinshon Judkins to fall short of his draft cost (the middle of the fifth round)
Judkins’ current ADP has him coming off the board in the middle of the fifth round, which isn’t egregious. But you’d probably be better off with one of the receivers available in that range
Dalton Kincaid to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 118.51 | TE10)
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) – ADP 118.51 | TE10 ... Kincaid no longer has a realistic shot at being first or second on his team in targets, which is necessary to justify his ADP
Trevor Lawrence to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 89.11 | QB8)
Trevor Lawrence (JAC) – ADP 89.11 | QB8 ... There is no reason why Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott should get drafted after him.
Keaton Mitchell to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 135.16 | RB43)
Keaton Mitchell (LAC) – ADP 135.16 | RB43 ... Therefore, Mitchell is vastly overvalued at his current ADP.
Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 11.94 | WR6)
Justin Jefferson (MIN) – ADP 11.94 | WR6 ... fantasy players want to avoid drafting Jefferson as a top-six wide receiver or a first-round pick.
Caleb Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 83.09 | QB5)
Caleb Williams (CHI) – ADP 83.09 | QB5 ... he is overpriced at his current ADP.
CeeDee Lamb to fall short of his draft cost (1.05)
Players to Avoid at 1.05 Fantasy Football Draft Pick — CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL) ... Pickens has slightly capped Lamb's upside.
Jonathan Taylor to fall short of his draft cost (the third overall pick)
Players to Avoid at 1.05 Fantasy Football Draft Pick — Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) ... do you deserve to be drafted with the third overall pick when your quarterback is coming off said achilles injury and is also named Daniel Jones?
Marvin Harrison Jr. to fall short of his draft cost (A WR31 ranking)
Dramatically increased competition for targets seriously caps any comeback effort for Harrison... A WR31 ranking is a steep price to pay with so much uncertainty swirling around.
Tetairoa McMillan to fall short of his draft cost (WR17 in expert consensus rankings (ECR))
McMillan is currently ranked as the WR17 in expert consensus rankings (ECR), and I feel that managers are paying a premium for a player with many surrounding question marks.
Garrett Wilson to fall short of his draft cost (the WR20 overall)
Call me skeptical that the Jets' offense can find a way to return any sort of value on Wilson, given his current price tag as the WR20 overall.
Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 34.4 | RB17)
Bucky Irving (TB) – ADP 34.4 | RB17 ... Irving regressed last year and struggled to stay healthy ... showing their lack of trust in Irving as a featured running back.
Tetairoa McMillan to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 37.3 | WR15)
While I like McMillan, he is overvalued as the WR15 in ADP.
De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 12.5 | RB5)
De'Von Achane (MIA) – ADP 12.5 | RB5 ... I won't draft him as a mid-range RB1 and would like to avoid picking Achane altogether with Malik Willis under center.
By sport
NFL — fantasy bust calls (38 graded)
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