Nick Wright· Aug 23, 2025
Nick Wright gives his current top-nine quarterback ranking led by Patrick Mahomes, argues the Las Vegas Raiders will make the playoffs, warns the Lions could fall from the No. 1 seed to a 10-7 wild-card team, and predicts a bounce-back season for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense.
“I would go one Patrick, two, Josh three, Lamar four, Joe five, Stafford six, Jalen Hurts seven with an asterisk of it's probably too early, but I give it to him, Jaden Daniels eight, Baker”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
6 checkable claims — 2 season win totals, 1 depth chart call, 1 playoff pick, 1 surprise team call and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 46 out of 100, against 64.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Depth Chart CallsJosh SimmonsKansas City ChiefsAug 23, 2025
Josh Simmons to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think the Chiefs getting Josh Simmons at pick thirty two as a potential franchise left tackle is as big of an offseason move as any team made.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- KC
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Josh Simmons
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- T
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsDetroit LionsAug 23, 2025
Detroit Lions to finish with 10 wins
“could I see the Lions going from fifteen to two and the one seed to ten and seven in a wild card? Absolutely?”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 45+70 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DET
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 70
- what happened:
- 9
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 45
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsLas Vegas RaidersAug 23, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 9 wins
“that team absolutely can get to nine or ten wins and sneak into the playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 35-70 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- -70
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 35
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksLas Vegas RaidersAug 23, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to make the playoffs
“the Browns are a team that I believe is going to make the play playoffs... And that is the Las Vegas Raiders... So the Raiders plus three point thirty to make the playoffs. That is my early first NFL season long Bet”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Top Player ListsAug 23, 2025
“If you're here, is what my ranking would look like. If I were doing it, I would go one Patrick, two, Josh three, Lamar four, Joe five, Stafford six, Jalen Hurts seven with an asterisk of it's probably too early, but I give it to him, Jaden Daniels eight, Baker And then it gets trickier.”
Close · 67Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 50+33.33 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 33.33
- placed:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 8
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 8: 66.67
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Surprise Team CallsLas Vegas RaidersAug 23, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to beat expectations
“there is one bet that I think the odds are going to shift because I think this team is going to become a popular sleeper pick... And that is the Las Vegas Raiders.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Matt DeryRoster Spot Calls · Tom KennedyMiss · 0Derry predicted a Lions win over the Saints by a 24-20 score, with the Saints covering the 7.5-point spread.
- Christian BooherRoster Spot Calls · Tom KennedyMiss · 0Booher lays out a projected Detroit Lions offensive depth chart ahead of the 2026 regular season, naming starters, backups and practice squad members at every offensive position.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Brashard SmithMiss · 0An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Brashard SmithMiss · 0PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
- Darren SmithRoster Spot Calls · Felix Anudike-UzomahHit · 100Smith picks L.J. Snead over Kristian Fulton to stick on the roster, believes the defensive lineman (FAU) is a lock to make the team, and states firmly that Patrick Mahomes will start under center in Week 1.
- JC PearsonRoster Spot Calls · Jaden HicksHit · 100Pearson puts Kristian Fulton among the Chiefs' top four corners who make the team, says the defensive lineman (FAU) has secured his roster spot, and believes Jaden Hicks has played his way onto the roster.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- John MiddlekauffSeason Win Totals · San Francisco 49ersClose · 60Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Cowherd takes the Titans over their five-and-a-half win total on the strength of Cam Ward and Brian Callahan, calls New England an eight-to-nine win team, picks Green Bay to win the NFC North, expects the Giants to lose all four games to Washington and Philadelphia, and sketches a quarterback ranking with C.J. Stroud around 10th and Baker Mayfield 11th.
- Chris BrockmanSeason Win Totals · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Brockman pitched that the Eagles are the NFL's best team and that Saquon Barkley will win MVP as the first non-quarterback since 2011. He also declared the AFC playoff field already set with six weeks to go, said the Cowboys will make the playoffs, predicted Buffalo would blast the 49ers, and reiterated his earlier call that Carolina would win five or six games.
- Chris BrockmanSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Brockman's overreaction slate: Breece Hall leaves the Jets and plays in the playoffs next season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver in the league, three quarterbacks (Mendoza first overall, plus Ty Simpson and Carson Beck) go in the first round, and the Patriots crater to a 7-10 season.