Mike Fanelli· Sep 2, 2026
Fanelli names five running backs he expects to bust relative to their 2026 draft cost: Christian McCaffrey (age/injury risk), De'Von Achane (passing-game dependence with Malik Willis at QB), Cam Skattebo (crowded Giants backfield), Bucky Irving (regression, injury, Gainwell competition), and TreVeyon Henderson (limited role with Stevenson healthy).
“Let's look at five potential running back bust candidates that I would rather avoid drafting in 2026.”
published in writing · FantasyPros · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 5 fantasy bust calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 10.8 | RB6)
“De'Von Achane (MIA) – ADP 10.8 | RB6 ... I won't draft him as a mid-range RB1 and would like to avoid picking Achane altogether with Malik Willis under center.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Cam Skattebo to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 39.4 | RB19)
“Cam Skattebo (NYG) – ADP 39.4 | RB19 ... the Giants have done everything possible to crush his fantasy value ... I'm not drafting anyone in this backfield.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 5.8 | RB3)
“Christian McCaffrey (SF) – ADP 5.8 | RB3 ... the superstar turned 30 this offseason and is a ticking time bomb because of his age and injury history.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 45.8 | RB20)
“Bucky Irving (TB) – ADP 45.8 | RB20 ... The Buccaneers signed Kenneth Gainwell to a significant contract in free agency, calling the veteran a co-starter during training camp, showing their lack of trust in Irving as a featured running back.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
TreVeyon Henderson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 59.8 | RB25)
“TreVeyon Henderson (NE) – ADP 59.8 | RB25 ... Neither New England running back should get drafted in the top 72 picks.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
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- Steven RuizTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Ruiz expects the Eagles to trade A.J. Brown once the June 1 dead-cap threshold passes, most likely to New England, and thinks Baker Mayfield will get a Buccaneers extension making him the league's highest-paid quarterback within a month or two. He also argues the Lions may have to let one or two of their 2023 draft class leave, and that Houston should extend C.J. Stroud.
- Mike TannenbaumTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Tannenbaum argues the Chiefs should lean on the run game early while Mahomes recovers, says the Bills haven't done enough at receiver and would repeat their playoff shortcoming, expects AJ Brown to have a massive impact in New England, thinks George Pickens will earn a big raise, and offers free-agent fits: Deebo Samuel to Buffalo, Joey Bosa to Tampa Bay, Taylor Decker to Houston, and Stefon Diggs to San Francisco.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Jeremy WhiteTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Jeremy White expects the Patriots to acquire AJ Brown, calling the trade likely inevitable within about a month.
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Brockman predicted only Stafford and Josh Allen of last year's MVP vote-getters get votes again, Fernando Mendoza starts and wins Rookie of the Year, the Colts win the AFC South, AJ Brown is traded to New England leaving DeVonta Smith as Philadelphia's clear No. 1 and a breakout star, five running backs top 1,600 yards, George Pickens breaks a Cowboys receiving record, and Justin Fields starts for Kansas City in September.
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WormeliFantasy Bust Calls · Zay FlowersMiss · 0Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Derek BrownFantasy Bust Calls · Zay FlowersMiss · 0Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.
- Chris WelshFantasy Bust Calls · Austin EkelerHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Joe PisapiaFantasy Bust Calls · Rashee RiceMiss · 0Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.
- Pat FitzmauriceFantasy Bust Calls · Breece HallMiss · 0Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.
- Derek BrownFantasy Bust Calls · Chuba HubbardHit · 100Derek Brown ("Deebro") names three busts to avoid in 2025 fantasy drafts: Kyren Williams at an RB1 price, Chuba Hubbard as a top-20 RB, and Xavier Worthy as his ultimate bust, arguing Rashee Rice is the clear No. 1 receiver in Kansas City.