Rich Hribar· Jun 28, 2023
In his 2023 fantasy running back tiers, Hribar places Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley in Tier 1 as the backs who check every usage box. He also expects Ekeler and Barkley to retain workhorse/lead-back roles because neither team added a threat to their touches.
“The Giants have added no tangible candidates to push Barkley off of significant touches again in 2023.”
published in writing · Sharp Football Analysis · read the original (as archived Jun 28, 2023) → · live page
3 checkable claims — 2 depth chart calls and 1 fantasy ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 91.7 out of 100, against 83.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Fantasy RankingsJun 28, 2023
“Tier 1 Fantasy Football RBs: Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- placed:
- 3
- season:
- 2023
- players:
- 3
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- RB 3: 75
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Austin Ekeler to be 1st on the depth chart
“the team added no viable candidates on the depth chart to warrant significant touches or threaten Ekeler's workhorse status.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LAC
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Austin Ekeler
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsSaquon BarkleyNew York GiantsJun 28, 2023
Saquon Barkley to be 1st on the depth chart
“The Giants have added no tangible candidates to push Barkley off of significant touches again in 2023.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Saquon Barkley
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Spencer FanoHit · 84Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.
- Nick ShookTrade and Signing Calls · Breece HallMiss · 0Shook names Breece Hall, Jakobi Meyers and David Njoku as trade candidates, suggesting Hall could land with the Chargers and that the Raiders will move Meyers as sellers.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · New York GiantsMiss · 20Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- Colin CowherdTrade and Signing Calls · Jameis WinstonHit · 100Cowherd delivered his own top-15 draft board — what he would do as GM of each team — pairing prospects with picks 1 through 15, and separately argued Shedeur Sanders is a far better prospect than Daniel Jones and that Aaron Rodgers should retire.
- Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · Los Angeles ChargersHit · 80Nick Wright gave his early AFC win-total leans: overs on the Jets, Ravens, Jaguars, Chiefs and Raiders, plus projected win ranges for the Dolphins, Texans, Chargers and Broncos, and predicted the Raiders take Ashton Jeanty at No. 6.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100An unsigned CBS Sports preseason review grading all 32 teams, which along the way stakes out a number of depth-chart calls for Week 1 and beyond — including Deshaun Watson opening as Cleveland's starter, Fernando Mendoza taking over as Las Vegas' QB1 by season's end, and Minnesota's Murray-Wentz-McCarthy quarterback order.
- Ryan WilsonDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100A CBS Sports piece states Deshaun Watson has won Cleveland's starting quarterback job for Week 1 with Shedeur Sanders next in line, while arguing Watson will not play like even an average NFL quarterback and that none of the Browns' current young passers should stop them from drafting a first-round quarterback next April.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano argues the Browns do not have a franchise quarterback and that it's unlikely Watson or Sanders is their long-term answer.
- John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The unsigned newsletter author says Deshaun Watson will start Week 1 at Jacksonville, notes he voted for Jaxson Dart as his breakout QB rather than Caleb Williams, and says newly signed Daniel Carlson is the favorite to win the Saints' kicking job.
- Mark ChichesterDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Unsigned PFF piece reporting/asserting that Deshaun Watson will be Cleveland's Week 1 starting quarterback against Jacksonville, with Shedeur Sanders behind him on the depth chart.
- Zachary PerelesDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The unsigned recap argues Sanders clearly outplayed Watson and, even if Sanders isn't named the Week 1 starter, predicts both quarterbacks will see significant playing time in 2026.