Rich Hribar · Jul 30, 2026
In his red-zone regression study, Hribar argues Jaxson Dart is undervalued this offseason and that his stock rises sharply if his red-zone passing efficiency merely reaches league baseline; he is also bullish on Justin Herbert improving in 2026 and on Tyler Shough having big upside if the Saints generate more red-zone trips.
“Even if Dart can get to baseline levels of passing efficiency near the end zone, his stock goes way up.”
published in writing · Sharp Football Analysis · read the original →
3 checkable claims from this
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsJul 30, 2026
“If that happens and Shough remains as efficient in the red zone as he was as a rookie, then lift off. Even if he comes closer to the pack in terms of efficiency due to sample size, there is an added upside to having more opportunities in that area of the field”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Sleeper CallsJul 30, 2026
“Herbert was not glaringly bad versus expectations in the red zone last season, but there is plenty of meat on the bone for improvement in 2026.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Sleeper CallsJul 30, 2026
“I do want to touch on Jaxson Dart because he has not been as valued this offseason as his ceiling showcased, even by myself. ... Even if Dart can get to baseline levels of passing efficiency near the end zone, his stock goes way up.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.