Tom Strachan· Sep 9, 2026
In his Week 1 start/sit column, Strachan flags four players as risky starts — Carnell Tate, Kyle Pitts, Quinshon Judkins and Rashee Rice — and three as safe starts — Javonte Williams, Ashton Jeanty and Chris Olave. He also suggests the Raiders will open with a home win over Miami.
“Everything about Pitts screams risky.”
published in writing · FantasyPros · read the original →
8 checkable claims — 4 fantasy bust calls, 3 sleeper calls and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The game in this take
- Dolphins at Raiders 34 calls
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas RaidersSep 9, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders to win
“Miami's defense is likely to struggle again this season, and the Raiders should feel good about starting their season at home with a positive result.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LV
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Sleeper CallsAshton JeantyLas Vegas RaidersSep 9, 2026
Ashton Jeanty to outplay his draft cost
“Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV) vs. Miami Dolphins ... Week 1 Safe Fantasy Football Starts”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Sleeper CallsChris OlaveNew Orleans SaintsSep 9, 2026
Chris Olave to outplay his draft cost
“If you have Chris Olave on your roster, you should feel very good about your chances of starting the fantasy football season with a win.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Quinshon Judkins to fall short of his draft cost
“Judkins likely has weeks where volume alone gets him into relevancy. This matchup, however, feels very risky.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Rashee Rice to fall short of his draft cost
“you might not wish to leave your matchup down to Rashee Rice's fortunes in this one”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Sleeper CallsJavonte WilliamsDallas CowboysSep 9, 2026
Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost
“Focusing purely on Week 1, that situation looks ripe for Williams. ... That starts with a solid rushing attack from Williams.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Carnell Tate to fall short of his draft cost
“Much as it was a relief to see the Titans surround Cam Ward with better options than he had last season, we might want to be cautious about starting Carnell Tate in Week 1.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Fantasy Bust CallsKyle PittsAtlanta FalconsSep 9, 2026
Kyle Pitts to fall short of his draft cost
“Yes, Pitts was the TE2 last season, but Brock Bowers was injured. Tucker Kraft and Sam LaPorta also missed significant time. Everything about Pitts screams risky.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Ralph VacchianoDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Vacchiano ranks all 32 NFL teams entering the 2026 season, with the Rams first and Dolphins last. He also flags the Giants as a potential surprise team with a top-10 defense, and notes Deshaun Watson won Cleveland's QB job while Tua Tagovailoa starts Week 1 in Atlanta.
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandHit · 100Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- Steven RuizDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Miss · 0In a retrospective tiering of all 32 starting quarterbacks, Ruiz treats Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons' Week 1 starter over Kirk Cousins, whom he places in his lowest tier.
- Mike FlorioDepth Chart Calls · Shedeur SandersMiss · 0Florio reports the Browns will start Deshaun Watson in Week 1 but predicts Shedeur Sanders will likely be the starting quarterback by Week 3.
- Paul KerenDepth Chart Calls · Teven JenkinsMiss · 0Keren says Teven Jenkins still projects as Cleveland's Week 1 starting right guard despite a push from KT Leveston, and that Carson Schwesinger and Quincy Williams will be the Browns' lead linebackers.
- John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0The unsigned Pick Six newsletter expects Seth McLaughlin to step into the Lions' starting center job with Cade Mays injured, and suggests Tua Tagovailoa is on track to be Atlanta's Week 1 starting quarterback.
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Mike HarmonFantasy Bust Calls · Joe BurrowHit · 100Harmon gave his Week 18 fantasy rankings — top five quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers — plus lists of 'hot plays,' 'cold sores' (players to avoid) and 'ninjas' (sneaky plays), and said Trevor Lawrence would land around a top-four fantasy quarterback finish for the season.
- Patrick ClaybonFantasy Bust Calls · Aaron RodgersHit · 100Claibon says Aaron Rodgers' deep-passing outburst was a one-week product of Baltimore's defense and won't continue, still endorses starting Jacoby Brissett in a tough Houston matchup, and picks Devon Achane as the top running back and AJ Brown as the top receiver for Week 15.
- Marcas GrantFantasy Bust Calls · Michael PittmanMiss · 0Grant calls Christian Watson the Packers' clear No. 1 receiver and RJ Harvey Denver's lead back, while labeling Mike Gesicki's and Tony Pollard's big weeks mirages to avoid; he also wants no part of Colts pass catchers with Philip Rivers signing. For Week 15 he picks Matthew Stafford as the top quarterback and Puka Nacua among the top receivers.
- Andrew EricksonFantasy Bust Calls · Cooper KuppHit · 100Erickson reiterated his prediction that Jordan Mason will lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns, backed the Broncos to blow out the Titans in Week 1, called Garrett Wilson a sell and Jacoby Myers a buy-low, expects little from Cooper Kupp, and made several depth-chart calls (Thornton starting in New England, Myers as Vegas' No. 1 receiver, Croskey-Merritt eventually taking the Commanders' 'A back' role).
- Ryan WormeliFantasy Bust Calls · Zay FlowersMiss · 0Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Derek BrownFantasy Bust Calls · Zay FlowersMiss · 0Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.