Cynthia Frelund · Oct 3, 2025

Freeland picks the Bills to beat the Patriots by roughly eight or nine points, the Colts to beat the Raiders at home, the Eagles to edge the Broncos by a point, the Chargers to narrowly beat Washington, and Seattle to beat Tampa Bay.

“They're playing the Patriots at home... So I have the Bills by at least eight.”

said on air or in an interview · read the original →

5 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Game Outcome PicksOct 3, 2025
“I think I have the Eagles by one point. That's where the model I set it out”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
21-17
skill:
0
they picked:
PHI
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksOct 3, 2025
“even though I have the Chargers winning, I want to take Washington with the field goal of points... I do have the Chargers winning, but it's very close”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
WAS
score:
27-10
skill:
0
they picked:
LAC
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive pick:
LAC
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksOct 3, 2025
“I'm actually with you on this one... I feel very confident that Seattle win.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
TB
score:
38-35
skill:
0
they picked:
SEA
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive pick:
SEA
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksOct 3, 2025
“My second pick is the Colts to win by six and a half. More than six and a half. Okay, they're playing the Raiders, they're at home.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
IND
score:
6-40
skill:
0
they picked:
IND
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive pick:
IND
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksOct 3, 2025
“I'm going to start with the Bills... They're playing the Patriots at home... So I have the Bills by at least eight.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?