Cleveland Browns 2026 Outlook: Everyone Has a Quarterback Take, Nobody Has a Safety Take
The Browns are 5-12 and 3-14 in their last two seasons, with an 11-6 playoff year in 2023 sitting awkwardly in between. Todd Monken is the head coach, Andrew Berry the general manager. That is the ground the punditry is built on.
The shape of that punditry is lopsided in a way this series keeps finding. Cleveland's quarterbacks have drawn 184 logged takes on this site; the running back room has 63, tight end 37, cornerback 28, defensive tackle 10. Safeties, kickers and punters have drawn a handful of names inside one projected depth chart and nothing else. Where a unit is thin below, that is the data talking, not a shortage of effort.
Quarterbacks
This is where nearly everyone spends their words, and the field is close to unanimous in a specific way: Deshaun Watson starts, and Shedeur Sanders doesn't stay on the bench.
Watson's Week 1 status is treated as settled. An unsigned CBS Sports review wrote that Watson "'won' the job, but he hardly looked the part of an NFL starter... Despite all that, he'll be the guy in Week 1." Bucky Brooks put it more briefly: "Deshaun Watson get the first bite of the apple."
The interesting claims are about what happens next. Matt Hasselbeck: "Do I think Shedeur Sanders will be the starting quarterback of the Cleveland Browns by the end of the season? Yes, I absolutely do." Carter Bahns is more aggressive — Sanders starting "by Week 4," verdict "Reality." Damonza Byrd told Sanders "you will be QB1 before this year is over." Colin Cowherd would start him now: "Cleveland, I don't hate them. I just don't know who's quarterback. I'd go with Shadur." Geoff Schwartz framed it as a bet: "Will Deshaun Watson, like, be the first quarterback benched? I think that's a good wager to make."
The site's history on Cleveland quarterback calls is a caution. Browns QB takes grade at 70.4 accuracy across 55 graded claims — respectable — but the misses are memorable. Shedeur Sanders is the second-most-missed player in the site's entire mock-draft case study: 15 mocks, average projected pick 9, actual pick 144. Last summer Nick Wright had Sanders "third best option to be a starting quarterback" (83.33 accuracy, skill −16.67) and Danny Parkins had him fourth (75, −33.33); Sanders finished the season as Cleveland's top passer. Cowherd's projected stat line for Sanders' first start — 139 yards, one touchdown, one pick — graded 0 on all three components.
Dillon Gabriel is the third man. Jacob Richard called him a third-stringer who "looked outmatched last season," and also the Brown "most likely to go" at cutdowns; FOX Sports reported Cleveland retaining him. There is a genuine competition here only in the sense that essentially nobody expects the Week 1 answer to be the Week 18 answer.
The receiver room
Second-most-covered unit: 127 takes, 44 graded, 71.8 average accuracy. The story is two rookies displacing a veteran.
Nathan Jahnke has Denzel Boston securing "Cleveland's X receiver role after he, Jerry Jeudy and KC Concepcion started the first preseason game." Zachary Pereles reported both rookies "expected to start right away." Derek Brown goes furthest: "Boston could easily be the Browns' WR1 after we flip over the cards for the 2026 season, and it's not reflected in his draft price at all."
Concepcion is the industry's favorite late-round dart — named a sleeper by Andrew Erickson, FantasyPros ("the potential to land a team's WR1 in the final rounds of drafts is worth taking a chance on"), Mike Fanelli and others — and Brooks picked him for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Jeudy is the loser in every version. Pat Fitzmaurice: "there is no reason to draft Jeudy in 2026. The Browns just spent early-round draft picks on WRs KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston." Erickson: "Friends don't let friends draft Jerry Jeudy." Bryan DeArdo lists Jeudy and Cedric Tillman as trade candidates.
Worth flagging: Brown's own graded record is strongest exactly where he's negative — 77.08 accuracy on 16 graded fantasy-bust calls — and weakest where he's making ranking projections, 12.85 accuracy across 19 positional-finish calls.
The running backs
Twelve graded Browns running back takes, 34.6 average accuracy, an average skill delta of −45.11. That is the worst-graded position group on this roster's history, and the 2026 crop is a straight argument about Quinshon Judkins.
Bullish: Jahnke, twice, says an "improved offensive line and expanded workload should give him a realistic path to a top-15 fantasy season," and Fanelli says "Judkins could be a top-12 running back this season, especially after the Browns improved their offensive line."
Bearish, and louder: Fitzmaurice calls him "a volume trap"; Erickson says he's "a volume-based bet on a bad offense"; Brown is blunter still — "Quinn Sean Judkins as a top 24 running back on a horrible Cleveland Browns offense. Uh, no, thank you." Dylan Sampson is the consensus cheap flier. No fullback takes exist.
The tight ends
Harold Fannin Jr. is essentially the entire tight end file — 37 takes, only 3 graded. The market has turned on him: Brown, Fanelli, Richard Janvrin (citing "the quarterback situation being madness, two new receivers and groin surgery") and Wolf Trelles-Heard all list him as a bust at cost, while Brown still lands on "a low-end TE1 in 2026." PFF named him Cleveland's breakout candidate. Depth chart projections put Blake Whiteheart, Jack Stoll and rookie Carsen Ryan behind him.
The offensive line
Fifty-nine tackle takes, 34 graded, plus 14 guard takes with a single grade. The projected five is repeated almost verbatim across sources: rookie Spencer Fano at left tackle, Zion Johnson, Elgton Jenkins at center, Teven Jenkins at right guard, Tytus Howard at right tackle. Albert Breer, reporting from camp: "This week, Fano became the permanent first-team left tackle." Ty Kohler had him "cemented" after one preseason game, with Dawand Jones a backup.
These are depth-chart calls, the highest-scoring and least demanding claim type on the site — the leaders in that category all sit between 86 and 98 accuracy, with skill deltas near zero. Being right that a top-10 pick starts is not much of an achievement.
The defensive line
Twelve graded takes, and most of the value came from Myles Garrett, who is no longer here. Rich Eisen, Nick Wright, Brandon Carney and Jourdan Rodrigue all had Garrett as Defensive Player of the Year and all graded 100; Wright's "might get twenty five sacks" scored 84 against an actual 23.
The 2026 line is barely discussed. Jacob Richard projects Mason Graham, Jared Verse, Maliek Collins and Isaiah McGuire, and calls it a group that "can be solid." Josh Edwards names Verse a first-time All-Pro candidate. Mary Kay Cabot reported Za'Darius Smith expected to sign. Interior defensive line: ten takes, one graded. That is the whole file.
The secondary
Cornerback grades well (15 graded, 87.4 accuracy) but almost all of that is 2025 mock-draft calls on Travis Hunter at No. 2, which scored 100 for everyone who made them. For 2026 there is one real claim, repeated: Richard says "the Browns' first two corners, Denzel Ward and Tyson Campbell, are probably the best position duo on the squad," and Dominic Pagura agrees the top two "are locked up," with D'Angelo Ross third and Myles Harden in the slot.
Safety punditry is five rows, four of them names inside one Rafael Zamorano depth-chart list, plus Breer noting Ronnie Hickman "settling in as a starter." No graded safety takes exist for this team.
Special teams
One take. Zamorano's projected roster lists "Andre Szmyt, Corey Bojorquez, Rex Sunahara. No real changes here." No kicking, punting or return-game predictions have been logged for Cleveland. Nothing to grade, and nothing to say.
The rookie class
Ground truth first: Fano (1-9), KC Concepcion (1-24), Denzel Boston (2-39), Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (2-58), Austin Barber (3-86), Parker Brailsford (5-146), Justin Jefferson (5-149), Joe Royer (5-170), Taylen Green (6-182), Carsen Ryan (7-248).
The pre-draft field did well on the top two and badly on the third. Fano drew 45 graded pick calls; JP Acosta, Mike Renner and Cowherd nailed pick 9 exactly for 100s, and even the wide misses cleared 80. Concepcion at 24 was hit dead-on by Scott Bogman, Acosta, Brown, Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks.
McNeil-Warren is the opposite, and he is the site's third-most-missed prospect overall: ten mocks at an average of pick 21, actual pick 58. Mel Kiper had 19, Jeremiah 18, Nick Wright 18 then 25, Cowherd 15. Only Eric Crocker had the range right, twice, including pick 58 on the nose. That is consistent with the site-wide pattern: first-round mock calls average 76.6 accuracy, second-round calls 49.1.
Nobody has yet made a checkable in-season claim about Barber, Brailsford, Jefferson, Royer, Green or Ryan beyond roster-spot notes — Jahnke has Ryan "likely to make the roster."
The overall outlook
The win-total file is where the disagreement lives. The number in circulation is 5.5, and the field straddles it.
- Nick Wright: "Cleveland's win total is 5.5. I have Cleveland winning, I think, four games."
- Gregg Rosenthal: "this is a three or four win team."
- Moe Moton: 3-14.
- Colin Cowherd, August: "sneaky six wins" — after saying in June, "I think this is a seven win. Team upside the. Eight."
- John Breech: over 5.5, citing the schedule and the defense "even without Garrett."
- Renner (May): over 6.5. Acosta: "like, seven wins."
- Owner Jimmy Haslam, on the 5.5 line: "I'll take the over."
Playoffs and division: Rich Eisen has Cleveland fifth on his list of teams that missed the playoffs and will make them. That is the only 2026 playoff call on file. There are no 2026 division-winner, conference-champion or power-ranking takes about the Browns at all. Cowherd was 25 accuracy the last time he ranked them in an AFC North order, and the only graded Browns division-winner call in the database — The Draft Network, 2021 — scored 0.
Historically, this crowd has been right about Cleveland when it predicted badness. Brady Quinn's 5-12 call, Nick Wright's over 4.5 and Cowherd's "four to six win team" all graded 100 for 2025. The Miz's Super Bowl pick for the 2025 Browns graded 0, as did his playoff call (−200 skill). Only four Browns win-total takes have been graded so far, at 90 average accuracy; the 2026 crop is all still pending. Take the honest version: on a team whose 2026 punditry is 267 depth-chart notes, 113 mock picks, and 17 win-total opinions, only the last group will teach us much.