Miami Dolphins 2026 Outlook: Malik Willis, De'Von Achane and a Field Betting on Three Wins

The Dolphins won seven games in 2025, eight in 2024, and have not been to the playoffs since the 11-6 season of 2023. Jeff Hafley is the head coach, Jon-Eric Sullivan the general manager. That is the roster punditry is looking at in 2026, and the punditry is not kind: the calls we hold range from four wins down to a projected 0-17.

Before the sections, one thing worth stating up front. The site holds 135 graded-or-pending takes about Miami receivers and 109 about Miami quarterbacks — and six about centers, four about kickers. Attention is not evenly distributed, and several units below get one honest sentence because that is all the evidence supports.

Quarterbacks

There is no competition. Every source we hold says the same thing, in the same words.

Alain Poupart, previewing the preseason finale on August 28: "Malik Willis is the unquestioned starter; Cam Miller is a long shot; and Mark Gronowski is as good as gone. Those are the issues that are settled."

The backup job resolved by trade. On August 30, Josh Alper wrote that "it seems likely that the Dolphins have their eye on bringing in someone from another team to serve as the No. 2 behind Willis." Within a day, Tyler Sullivan had Kyle McCord arriving "as the top option behind Willis, who signed a three-year, $67.5 million deal in free agency," and FOX Sports had McCord "in line to back up Malik Willis for the start of the 2026 season."

Fantasy analysts are the ones actually taking a position. Derek Brown has repeated the same line four separate times since late August: "Willis's running prowess should have him flirting with QB1 production this year alone," and "if he and this offense surpass lowly expectations through the air, Willis would be a strong QB1 with upside in 2026." Joshua Poniatowski put it more bluntly: "At his current average draft position, Malik Willis is practically free."

Worth knowing before you buy it: Brown's graded record on Sleeper Calls is 52.25 accuracy over 41 calls, and his Positional Finishes — the "he'll finish as a QB1" genre — sit at 12.85 accuracy over 19 graded calls. His Fantasy Bust Calls, by contrast, run 77.08 over 16. He is much better at telling you who to avoid than who to chase.

Depth-chart calls on Miami quarterbacks, as a category, have graded well: Miami depth-chart takes overall average 98.3 accuracy, though only five are graded. Miami QB takes as a whole average 49.9 accuracy on 14 graded calls with a skill delta of -25.73 — the only Miami position group where pundits have collectively done worse than the naive baseline.

The receiver room

This is the loudest room on the roster and the least settled. Nobody agrees on who the No. 1 is.

• Nathan Jahnke (PFF), August 28 and 30, on Malik Washington: "He didn't play in either of the last two preseason games, and will be the Dolphins' top fantasy receiver to start this season."
• Nic Bodiford (August 25): rookie "Douglas could be the team's No. 1 wide receiver in Week 1," with Chris Bell challenging "for the top target-earning share."
• Raju Byfield (August 27): "Caleb Douglas has seemingly emerged as the Miami Dolphins' number two receiver."
• Alex Villasis (August 29): "don't be surprised to see Bell as the leading receiver from Miami, even with missing time" — Bell is back from December ACL surgery.
• Steve Krebs (September 3): Washington "could end up finishing the season as the No. 1 wide receiver for a dilapidated Miami offense."

Ralph Vacchiano ranked all 32 skill-position groups and put the Dolphins last, writing that "Malik Washington could be a good third receiver, but might be forced into a larger role."

Tyreek Hill is the ghost in this room. Poupart wrote on August 27 that it "has always seemed more likely that Tyreek Hill misses the entire season than plays it," as he recovers from a catastrophic knee injury. The field has already been graded on Hill once, and it was the most profitable Miami call on the books: Pat Fitzmaurice, Derek Brown, Chris Welsh and Andrew Erickson all called Hill a bust before 2025 and all scored 100 accuracy when he finished WR107. Miami's Fantasy Bust Calls average 87.5 accuracy across eight graded takes — the best-graded category on this team.

The running back room

De'Von Achane is the single most-argued player on the roster, and the split is close to even.

For: Nathan Jahnke — "Achane's talent, combined with his status as the clear focal point of the offense, should keep him safely among the top 10 fantasy running backs." FantasyPros: "At RB8, Achane isn't just my favorite bet in this range; he has a very real path to finishing as the overall RB1." Andrew Erickson ran the math on Willis's scrambling and concluded that "even paying the full mobility tax, the floor is elite."

Against: Mike Fanelli — "I won't draft him as a mid-range RB1 and would like to avoid picking Achane altogether with Malik Willis under center." Tom Strachan repeated three times that "his numbers in the receiving game could dip significantly without Tua Tagovailoa." Fitzmaurice: "that's not a bet I'm eager to make in the second round." Frank Ammirante: "Achane has an RB6 ADP, which is too costly for me."

Behind him, the reads agree. Jahnke and Fitzmaurice both have Jaylen Wright as RB2 over Ollie Gordon II — Fitzmaurice: "Wright played ahead of Ollie Gordon in the Dolphins' 26-3 loss to the Giants on Saturday and appears to be the top backup."

Note the asymmetry in Fitzmaurice's record: his Depth Chart Calls grade at 91.2 accuracy across 14, his Fantasy Bust Calls at 22.86 across 13. His Achane fade is the second kind of call.

No fullback takes exist in the database.

The tight ends

One name, said fifteen different ways. Greg Dulcich is the most consensus-heavy Dolphin in our records, and every single Dulcich take is still pending.

Derek Brown: "Greg Dulcich could be THE late-round tight end to draft in 2026 ... with only Will Kacmarek, Seydou Traore, and Ben Sims behind him on the tight end depth chart, Dulcich should be the Dolphins' every-down tight end. I won't be surprised if he finishes the season as a TE1."

Fitzmaurice, repeatedly through August: "Although Miami isn't expected to have a high-powered passing attack with the inexperienced Malik Willis taking over as the starting quarterback, Dulcich could be a sneaky-good fantasy option this year." Jahnke, Erickson, Eric Moody, Liz Loza, Evan Tarracciano and FantasyPros' projection model (TE22 versus a TE35 consensus rank) all land in the same place.

Jake Gibson supplies the caveat: Dulcich "will be the day-one starter, but it gets inexperienced after that."

Miami TE takes: 63 total, 14 graded, 52.7 average accuracy. When this many people agree on a sleeper, it stops being a sleeper — and a graded result in January will tell us which read was right.

The offensive line

Almost everything here is roster bookkeeping rather than opinion. Poupart's projections list Patrick Paul, Austin Jackson, Aaron Brewer, Jamaree Salyer, Jonah Savaiinaea and rookie Kadyn Proctor on the 53, with Salyer as "likely the sixth man along this offensive line" per Tyler DeSena.

The one real forecast: Zachary Pereles, August 18 — "Savaiinaea is the clear starter at right guard, but if he doesn't improve significantly from his rookie season, he might not be there for long."

Where the line does have a graded record, it is the draft, not the season. Miami offensive tackle takes grade at 86 accuracy over 17 graded calls, the best of any Miami position group — but that is mock-draft accuracy about tackles Miami was linked to, not an assessment of the players who ended up on the roster. Miami's one graded center take scored 0.

The defensive line

Thin, and one honest note. The only forward-looking take we hold is Gordon McGuinness naming Kenneth Grant PFF's Dolphins breakout candidate: "With a full NFL offseason under his belt, expect Grant to continue that upward trajectory in 2026." Everything else is Poupart's roster tiering — Zach Sieler, Grant, Jordan Phillips and Zeek Biggers as locks.

Miami defensive tackle takes grade at 19.4 accuracy over five graded calls, the worst of any Miami group. That is a five-take sample and mostly mock-draft misses on players Miami never took; do not read it as a scouting verdict.

The secondary

Everything checkable is about the rookie. Tyler DeSena has first-rounder Chris Johnson as "the No. 1 nickel on Miami's first depth chart," adding that "his performance likely will be an indicator of Jeff Hafley's defensive ecosystem overall." Jordan Dajani says Johnson "figures to start immediately."

At safety, Poupart has Dante Trader Jr. as the "projected starter," with rookie Michael Taaffe a borderline lock. Miami safety takes: 19 total, seven graded, 40 average accuracy. Cornerback takes fare better at 57.4 over 22.

Special teams

Four kicker takes, two punter takes, zero return-game takes, and none of the six is graded. The whole of it is Poupart reporting on August 10 that "the Miami Dolphins' kicker competition is over, with Riley Patterson set to return for a second season on the job," Zane Gonzalez having landed on injured reserve, and Bradley Pinion listed as a roster lock. Nobody has said anything checkable about this unit.

The rookie class

Ground truth first. Miami drafted 13 players in 2026:

Nobody had Proctor going 12th, and nobody had him to Miami. The mock field put him with the Lions at 17 (Mel Kiper, Mike Renner, JP Acosta, Matt Dery, each scoring 80.52), the Chargers at 22, the Eagles at 23, the Bears at 25. Nick Wright had him 23rd to Philadelphia (62.09). The field's consensus was that Proctor was a late-first player; Miami took him 12th.

Chris Johnson at 27 was closer to right. Pat Fitzmaurice was the only pundit we hold who actually put Johnson in Miami's first round — "he fits into the first round with Miami" — scoring 87.81. Daniel Jeremiah had him twice as a Day 2 value ("pick 39/40 is about where he goes," 56.94) before landing on New England at 31 in his final mock (84.09). Peter Bukowski called him "the best corner in the draft" back in March while correctly predicting he would not be the first corner taken.

On Jacob Rodriguez, Colin Cowherd's show made the boldest claim of the class: Rodriguez "is the guy that's gonna be in the league for twelve fifteen years, has one hundred tackles every year, and we're talking about it was like an All Pro Pro Bowl kind of guy." Gregg Rosenthal is more measured — "I would assume Rodriguez is the favorite there to start, but that's something I'll be tracking."

Overall, Miami mock-draft calls grade at 59.5 accuracy across 110 graded takes, skill delta +34.1 — the largest graded sample on this club by a wide margin.

The overall outlook

There is no 2026 win-total consensus to report yet: the site's consensus tool returns nothing for the season, because the season has not resolved. What we have is the individual calls, and they are grim.

Nick Wright has been the loudest and the most consistent, moving from "I would be on two win watch for the Miami Dolphins" in March to 15 losses in April to "only the Cardinals have a harder schedule this year than the Miami Dolphins. I think they're three and fourteen" on August 31, where he also put Miami fourth in the AFC East behind the Bills, Patriots and Jets. Douglas Clawson went further: "Miami becomes first team to go 0-17. The ingredients are all there for a winless season."

The only voice pushing back is Gregg Rosenthal, on September 2: "Three and a half wins over under... But I would have gone over because I just think it's hard to lose 15 games." Diante Lee's Ringer ranking allows that "even if everything goes right, this team might squeeze out only four wins."

Sample-size honesty on the forecasters: Wright has 50 graded season win-total calls at 43.63 accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -10.42 — worse than the naive baseline at exactly this kind of claim, despite an 82.26 accuracy on mock drafts across 95 calls. Rosenthal's win-total record is 18 graded at 50 accuracy, +2.37. Across all pundits with at least five graded win-total calls, the field's accuracy tops out at 64. Nobody involved has earned confidence here.

Two more things the field is saying. Playoffs: exactly one take exists, and it is stale — Chris Brockman in March said the Dolphins "could be maybe the second playoff team in that division." Nobody has repeated it since. Division and conference: zero graded or pending division-winner takes and zero power-ranking takes for Miami. No one is bothering to argue about whether the Dolphins win the AFC East.

Where the field has moved on to is 2027. Walt's draft-order projection has Miami first overall; Jordan Reid has the Dolphins "holding the first overall pick originally" before a trade with Cleveland; Carter Bahns writes of "what should be a top-two pick." Mock drafters have already started putting quarterbacks there — Rob Rang has Dante Moore second to Miami, Renner has Arch Manning first to Miami, Walt has Jeremiah Smith third.

The last time the field tried to price Miami's draft slot, Rich Eisen said in September 2025 that "the Dolphins look like a team picking in the top five." They picked 12th; the call graded 73.84 with a skill delta of +5.92. Predicting that this team will be bad has not historically been the same thing as predicting how bad.