Baltimore Ravens 2026 Outlook: The Team Punditry Keeps Getting Wrong
The Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 and missed the playoffs, after 12-5 and 13-4 seasons before that. John Harbaugh is gone; the head coach is now Jesse Minter, with Eric DeCosta still the general manager. The punditry has responded the way it has responded to Baltimore for years: by picking them.
That is the problem. Across every graded Baltimore division-winner call we hold — 35 of them — the average accuracy is 0.0. Conference champion: 19 graded, 0.0. Super Bowl: 14 graded, 0.0. Playoff picks: 34 graded, 17.6. This is the most confidently, most repeatedly missed team in the database, and the 2026 field is stacked on the same side again.
Quarterbacks
Baltimore's quarterback room is the most-discussed part of the roster after the receivers, and the worst-graded: 27 graded QB takes at 20.7 average accuracy.
There is no competition. Lamar Jackson is the starter, Tyler Huntley is the backup, and the only contested job is third string, where undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano made the 53. Jason La Canfora called him "the ideal third quarterback now," and Carter Bahns wrote that "everything points to Fagnano taking the No. 3 role from Austin Reed." La Canfora also flagged the contract overhang: Jackson "seems perfectly inclined to pocket that $50M for this season and call his shot in 2027."
On Jackson himself the field is genuinely split, and the split is instructive because the bearish side has been the profitable one. Rachel Nichols said in January that Jackson was still a top-four quarterback: graded 0. Danny Parkins said top-ten: graded 0. Jackson finished 23rd in passing yards. Rich Eisen's December line — "I don't even think you could sit here and say he's a top 10 quarterback this year" — graded 100 with a skill delta of +128.
For 2026, Nick Wright is the moderate: "the most likely outcome for Lamar next year is a solid year where he's like the sixth or seventh best quarterback in football." Shannon Sharpe thinks he "could easily be a three time" MVP; Ralph Vacchiano says "pencil him in near the top of the MVP race." The fantasy side is fading him — Nathan Jahnke cites "the uncertainty surrounding his rushing workload, new coaching staff and supporting cast," and an unsigned FantasyPros report calls him "the single largest negative-regression quarterback in the report." Worth noting: Baltimore award picks are 19 graded at 0.0 accuracy, and Jackson drew seven MVP votes in our 2025 ballot to Matthew Stafford's 26.
The receiver room
Ninety wide receiver takes, 12 of them graded — the biggest talk-to-evidence gap on the roster, at 49.3 accuracy and a skill delta of −30.8.
Zay Flowers is the undisputed WR1. Mike Fanelli: "Flowers' role as the clear-cut No. 1 option in the passing game remains unchallenged." Derek Brown calls him "a strong WR2 with WR1 upside again this year"; Wolf Trelles-Heard has him setting "new personal bests across the board." Brown's sleeper calls grade 52.25 across 41 graded, so treat that as a coin flip with a small edge.
The rookie is the actual story. Third-rounder Ja'Kobi Lane is the consensus No. 3 — Jahnke ("securing his spot as the third wide receiver"), Pat Fitzmaurice, Matt Zenitz relaying a Baltimore source that Lane "was already a starter in 11 personnel." Two go further: Nic Bodiford says Lane is "quietly in play to operate as the Ravens' No. 2 pass-catcher from Week 1-on" and "can lead his team in receiving touchdowns," and Jason McIntyre puts a number on it — "a 50 catch season, maybe six, seven touchdowns." Fourth-rounder Elijah Sarratt makes rosters but not lineups; Andrew Erickson lists him under "Rookies to Avoid."
The running backs
Twelve graded RB takes, 39.2 accuracy. The room reads as settled: Derrick Henry the "unquestioned starter," Justice Hill the third-down back, rookie Adam Randall third and, per La Canfora, a "Joker" rather than a volume runner.
Everyone is bullish on Henry. Sharpe: "Derrick Henry might work for two thousand, two thousand yards." Derek Brown: "an RB twelve or higher every single year," with top-five upside if the receiving work grows. FantasyPros projects him RB5 at 264.2 points against an RB11 consensus. The one dissent is Ryan Conway, who argues Henry's lack of receiving work "consistently cap[s] him as a top-five-to-10 running back instead of *the* RB1." Brown's positional-finish calls grade 12.85 on 19 graded, which is the caveat that belongs on all of this.
The tight ends
The fade on Mark Andrews is close to unanimous. Erickson: "I think Mark Andrews is just cooked at this point... out of juice." Tom Strachan notes the "career-low 422 receiving yards." Trelles-Heard won't pay a TE14 price. Walt still projects 67 catches, 690 yards and nine touchdowns; FantasyPros has him TE13 against a TE15 consensus, and Fitzmaurice says "if you punt tight end, Andrews is a worthwhile target."
Erickson's bust calls are his best category: 88.89 accuracy on 11 graded, MissedTakes Score 155.56. That is the strongest historical support behind any Ravens opinion in this post.
Behind Andrews, Bradley Locker thinks rookie Matthew Hibner "has made a good case already to supplant Durham Smythe as the team's No. 2 option," while Jahnke reads Smythe's preseason absence the other way.
The offensive line
This is the unit the industry actually nailed. Six pundits put guard Olaivavega Ioane to Baltimore at No. 14, and he went 14th: Nick Wright, David Harrison, Jordan Reid, JP Acosta, Erickson and KCSN's KC Laboratory all graded 100. Baltimore guard takes sit at 76.4 accuracy with a +38.9 skill delta; tackle takes at 79.3 and +32.3 — the two best-scoring position rooms on the team.
Forward-looking calls are modest and specific. Gordon McGuinness: "Vega Ioane and John Simpson should be upgrades over Daniel Faalele and Andrew Vorhees." Rafael Zamorano expects Ethan Pocic at center with Ioane at right guard; Josh Reed argues Jovaughn Gwyn has passed Danny Pinter as "the outright frontrunner to win the starting center job." Eisen went furthest, calling Ioane a rookie who "could play, if he is healthy, a decade plus and go straight in the Canton."
The defensive line
Thin: five graded defensive end takes and four at tackle, and most of them are old mock-draft picks rather than opinions about this season's line. Zachary Pereles notes Nnamdi Madubuike is "in line to play early this season" after a neck injury. La Canfora expects seventh-rounder Rayshaun Benny to "surprise this season." Nobody in the database has said anything checkable about second-round edge Zion Young.
The one graded bet on this line worked: Mike Mayock's 2025 call that Travis Jones would break out scored 100 with a skill delta of +200.
The secondary
Locker says the corners are set with Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins; Lance Zierlein likes fifth-rounder Chandler Rivers as "a future starting nickel." La Canfora expects a trade out of the corner room, saying Baltimore has "let it be known that they think [T.J.] Tampa has real trade value."
The safeties draw the awards talk. Bucky Brooks has picked Kyle Hamilton for Defensive Player of the Year twice in a week — "I think we're going to be amazed at what Kyle Hamilton does." Malaki Starks is a near-consensus breakout pick, including from Vacchiano. History says slow down: Jamie Erdahl picked Starks for Defensive Rookie of the Year twice last preseason, and both calls graded 0 when Carson Schwesinger won. Baltimore cornerback takes overall grade 29.1 on six graded; safeties 44.6 on eight.
Special teams
Almost nothing. Minter has said incumbent Tyler Loop will kick in Week 1, which is a statement of fact more than a prediction. Gregg Rosenthal's 2025 call that Loop would beat out John Hoylan graded 100 (+16.67 skill), as did his call that Justin Tucker would never be in a Ravens uniform again. We hold no takes at all on sixth-round punter Ryan Eckley, and none on the return game. That is the honest state of it.
The rookie class
Eleven picks: Ioane (1-14), Zion Young (2-45), Ja'Kobi Lane (3-80), Elijah Sarratt (4-115), Matthew Hibner (4-133), Chandler Rivers (5-162), Josh Cuevas (5-173), Adam Randall (5-174), Ryan Eckley (6-211), Rayshaun Benny (7-250), Evan Beerntsen (7-253).
Punditry has clustered on four of them: Ioane as a Week 1 starter and, per Eisen, an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate; Lane as the No. 3 receiver with a real chance at more; Hibner pushing Smythe; Rivers as a future nickel. Randall projects as the third back on special teams, Benny as La Canfora's surprise, Sarratt as a roster lock and a fantasy avoid, Beerntsen as a practice-squad candidate. Cuevas, Eckley and Young: nothing graded, nothing checkable.
The outlook
Nobody is out on Baltimore. Colin Cowherd has them winning the North "just because a lot of changes, but they have the deepest roster." Wright took the over on 11.5 with the first pick of an AFC over/under draft — "13 games" and the No. 1 seed. McIntyre: "This smells like 13 or 14 wins." Moe Moton projects 12-5. Simon Hunter bets the over. Vacchiano says 10-plus. Michael Irvin: "Ravens are definitely getting in." Douglas Clawson's bold prediction has them winning the Super Bowl outright, and Chris Broussard said in April, "I am feeling good about the Ravens... This is the year."
Cowherd's floor — "they just win ten to eleven games every year" — is the most cautious number of the bunch, and Pat Gustavson's spring guess of around nine wins is the only genuinely low one.
Here is what that field looked like the last time. In 2025 the same names took the Ravens over 11.5: Wright (graded 20, skill −70), Rosenthal (20, −70), Brady Quinn at 12-5 (20, −70). Baltimore won eight. The only pundit who scored well was Parkins, who took the under at 10 wins: 60 accuracy, +10. Baltimore's season win-total takes as a group grade 34.3 with a −30.7 skill delta.
The relevant per-pundit records are not reassuring either. Wright grades 43.63 on 50 season win totals (score −10.42) and 12.5 accuracy on 14 division-winner calls. Cowherd sits at 13.2 accuracy across 53 graded division picks. We hold no settled 2026 win-total consensus row yet, because the season hasn't been played.
None of this says Baltimore will be bad. It says the case for Baltimore is the single most-repeated, worst-scoring bet in this database, and that the people making it in 2026 are largely the people who made it in 2025. If they are right this time, they will have earned it the hard way. Our scoring methodology explains how these grades are built.