Ryan Fowler· Apr 3, 2023
Fowler offers six bold 2023 NFL Draft predictions: a team trades up for Bijan Robinson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the lone first-round wide receiver, seven cornerbacks go in Round 1, BJ Ojulari is picked on Night 1, multiple kickers are drafted, and five quarterbacks go in Round 1 with Hendon Hooker joining the top four.
“In a talent pool that touts a ton of WR2s and WR3s, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s just the former Buckeye who hears his name called on night one before a run on wideouts starts early on day two.”
published in writing · The Draft Network · read the original (as archived Apr 4, 2023) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
4 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 42.5 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksHendon HookerApr 3, 2023
Hendon Hooker to be picked “First round” (picks 1–31)
“Bryce Young , C.J. Stroud , Anthony Richardson , Will Levis , and… Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker .”
Miss · 20Scored 20.13a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Hendon Hooker
- season:
- 2023
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 20.13
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 68
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 20.13
- predicted pick:
- First round (picks 1–31)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksBJ OjulariApr 3, 2023
BJ Ojulari to be picked “Night 1 (first round)” (picks 1–31)
“LSU EDGE BJ Ojulari Goes On Night 1”
Close · 65Scored 64.84a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- BJ Ojulari
- season:
- 2023
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 64.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 41
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 64.84
- predicted pick:
- Night 1 (first round) (picks 1–31)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksBijan RobinsonApr 3, 2023
Bijan Robinson to be picked “A team trades up to draft him”
“A Team Trades UP For Bijan Robinson ... I don’t expect him to wait too long on draft night before a team calls his name—or makes a trade-up if teams get cute.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksJaxon Smith-NjigbaApr 3, 2023
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be picked “Only WR selected in Round 1”
“Only 1 WR Goes in Round 1 ... I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s just the former Buckeye who hears his name called on night one”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Ryan WormeliSleeper Calls · Bijan RobinsonHit · 100Warmley expects Derrick Henry to post another huge rushing season in Baltimore, sees real upside in Brian Robinson Jr. as Washington's lead back, and calls Javonte Williams, Justice Hill, Jordan Mason and Bijan Robinson values at their current costs.
- Chris BrockmanPositional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaHit · 100Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called his shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.
- Danny ParkinsAward Picks · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaMiss · 0Parkins picked Seattle to win 27-16 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Super Bowl MVP.
- Pat GustavsonPositional Finishes · Bijan RobinsonClose · 75Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out his own coaching landing spots.
- JP AcostaPositional Finishes · Bijan RobinsonClose · 75JP picked the Eagles to beat the 49ers in a low-scoring game and the Jaguars to beat the Bills, called Bijan Robinson the best running back in the league, and named his own first-team All-Pro roster.
- Brandon CarneyAward Picks · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaHit · 100Carney made a full playoff bracket, picking the Bears, Niners, Rams, Patriots, Jaguars and Texans in the wild card round, then Seahawks and Rams in the NFC divisional, Broncos and Patriots in the AFC, with the Rams beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl. He also gave award picks including Stafford for MVP and Vrabel for Coach of the Year.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.