Nick Wright· Aug 28, 2025
Wright's under picks: Broncos under 9.5, 49ers under 10.5, Cowboys under 8, Bengals under 9.5 with Cincinnati missing the playoffs and Zac Taylor fired.
“the Denver Broncos are not winning ten games under nine and a half”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
4 checkable claims — 4 season win totals — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 35 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
wins9They said
6What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Season Win TotalsCincinnati BengalsAug 28, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals to finish with 9 wins
“I'm gonna go Bengals under nine and a half”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 45-10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CIN
- naive:
- 8.75
- skill:
- -10
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 45
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsDallas CowboysAug 28, 2025
Dallas Cowboys to finish with 7 wins
“If you wanna, if you wanna step up here, make it eight and we go on different sides... Yeah, sure deal”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 85+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DAL
- naive:
- 7.75
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsDenver BroncosAug 28, 2025
Denver Broncos to finish with 9 wins
“the Denver Broncos are not winning ten games under nine and a half”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 5-10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- -10
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 5
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsSan Francisco 49ersAug 28, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to finish with 10 wins
“I'm gonna go with one that I think you could take the Niners under ten and a half.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 5+110 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SF
- naive:
- 7.25
- skill:
- 110
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 5
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100In a Week 2 preview, Middlekauff argued Matt LaFleur is under enormous pressure in Green Bay, predicted blowout wins for the 49ers over Miami and the Eagles over Tennessee, and offered season win-total views on the Saints, Buccaneers, Texans and Jaguars while backing Dallas to win the NFC East.
- Alain PoupartScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersClose · 71Poupart predicts the 49ers beat the Dolphins 27-17 at Levi's Stadium in Week 2, though he expects the game to be closer than the spread suggests. He also anticipates a larger role for De'Von Achane and a big passing day from Brock Purdy.
- Derek BrownGame Outcome Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100In a Week 2 start/sit column, Derek Brown gave lineup advice on running backs, including a prediction that the 49ers would blow out the Dolphins.
- Greg JenningsGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Jennings put the Cardinals up as his upset alert over Seattle, backed the Texans over Cincinnati and the Bears over Minnesota with chips, put two chips on Denver beating Jacksonville, and wrote a headline of the Packers beating the Jets; he also called the Bengals a playoff team and the Chiefs winners over Indianapolis.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsHit · 100Parkins picked the Giants to beat the Rams outright, backed Jacksonville over Denver, Cincinnati over Houston and Chicago over Minnesota in the chips segment, endorsed Buffalo as the AFC's Super Bowl representative, and predicted Deshaun Watson has started his last NFL game.
- Alain PoupartGame Outcome Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Answering a mailbag ahead of the Dolphins-49ers game, Poupart says logic points to Miami losing because San Francisco is the far better team, while allowing that upsets happen. He also lays out what would have to happen for a Dolphins win (Achane running wild or the defense intercepting Brock Purdy).
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Cowherd takes the Titans over their five-and-a-half win total on the strength of Cam Ward and Brian Callahan, calls New England an eight-to-nine win team, picks Green Bay to win the NFC North, expects the Giants to lose all four games to Washington and Philadelphia, and sketches a quarterback ranking with C.J. Stroud around 10th and Baker Mayfield 11th.
- John MiddlekauffSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Detroit LionsHit · 100Sherman picks the Chiefs to beat the Bills in the AFC Championship Game despite Buffalo's turnover dominance, and picks the Commanders to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. He also expects Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year, though he hedges that voters may give it to Lamar or Josh Allen.
- Chris BrockmanSeason Win Totals · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Brockman pitched that the Eagles are the NFL's best team and that Saquon Barkley will win MVP as the first non-quarterback since 2011. He also declared the AFC playoff field already set with six weeks to go, said the Cowboys will make the playoffs, predicted Buffalo would blast the 49ers, and reiterated his earlier call that Carolina would win five or six games.
- Chris BrockmanSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Brockman's overreaction slate: Breece Hall leaves the Jets and plays in the playoffs next season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver in the league, three quarterbacks (Mendoza first overall, plus Ty Simpson and Carson Beck) go in the first round, and the Patriots crater to a 7-10 season.