Wright's under picks: Broncos under 9.5, 49ers under 10.5, Cowboys under 8, Bengals under 9.5 with Cincinnati missing the playoffs and Zac Taylor fired.

4 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Season Win TotalsCincinnati BengalsAug 28, 2025

  “I'm gonna go Bengals under nine and a half”

  Scored 40a naive guess scored 45-10 skill
  How this was scored

  team:

  CIN

  naive:

  8.75

  skill:

  -10

  what happened:

  6

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  5

  accuracy:

  40

  baseline:

  45

  predicted:

  9

  difficulty:

  2

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  18

  Think this is wrong?

• Season Win TotalsDallas CowboysAug 28, 2025

  “If you wanna, if you wanna step up here, make it eight and we go on different sides... Yeah, sure deal”

  Scored 100a naive guess scored 85+30 skill
  How this was scored

  team:

  DAL

  naive:

  7.75

  skill:

  30

  what happened:

  7

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  5

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  85

  predicted:

  7

  difficulty:

  2

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  18

  Think this is wrong?

• Season Win TotalsDenver BroncosAug 28, 2025

  “the Denver Broncos are not winning ten games under nine and a half”

  Scored 0a naive guess scored 5-10 skill
  How this was scored

  team:

  DEN

  naive:

  9.25

  skill:

  -10

  what happened:

  14

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  5

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  5

  predicted:

  9

  difficulty:

  2

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  18

  Think this is wrong?

• Season Win TotalsSan Francisco 49ersAug 28, 2025

  “I'm gonna go with one that I think you could take the Niners under ten and a half.”

  Scored 60a naive guess scored 5+110 skill
  How this was scored

  team:

  SF

  naive:

  7.25

  skill:

  110

  what happened:

  12

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  5

  accuracy:

  60

  baseline:

  5

  predicted:

  10

  difficulty:

  2

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  18

  Think this is wrong?