Gregg Rosenthal· Apr 9, 2025
Rosenthal predicted Armand Membu could go to the Jets at No. 7, expects Josh Simmons to be picked in the first round despite injury and character concerns, and floated Donovan Jackson going to a team like the Patriots at the top of the second round. On win totals he leaned over on the Jets, Buccaneers, Lions and Chiefs.
“I really think he could go to the Jets at seven because they really need to know his bookends.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
7 checkable claims — 4 season win totals and 3 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 61.1 out of 100, against 42.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Donovan Jackson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)
“Wouldn't be surprised if a team like the Patriots one of those teams at the top of the second round that needs offensive lineman.”
Close · 68Scored 67.71a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Donovan Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 24
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- top of the second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Season Win TotalsKansas City ChiefsApr 9, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 12 wins
“So the Chiefs always always disrespected at eleven and a half. I if you you bet the over for them every year, you'd be a rich man.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsDetroit LionsApr 9, 2025
Detroit Lions to finish with 11 wins
“the Lions were only at ten and a half... I think I would I would lean towards the over with the Lions”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 45+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DET
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 9
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 45
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsTampa Bay BuccaneersApr 9, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 10 wins
“The Bucks are at nine and a half... I'm definitely gonna be over on the Bucks.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- -30
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsNew York JetsApr 9, 2025
New York Jets to finish with 6 wins
“I think Jets over five and a half? That would be like, what are you thinking? For me? I think that get better than that.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 25+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 25
- predicted:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Mock Draft PicksArmand MembouNew York JetsApr 9, 2025
Armand Membou to be picked at number 7
“I really think he could go to the Jets at seven because they really need to know his bookends”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Armand Membou
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksJosh SimmonsApr 9, 2025
Josh Simmons to be picked “probably in the first round” (picks 1–32)
“Someone's going to take a chance on him at some point, probably in the first round, maybe even earlier than people think because of the position.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Josh Simmons
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 32
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- probably in the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
What others said about the same people
- Joshua SchulmanGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Schulman endorses the view that the Chiefs will beat the Colts in their Sunday night matchup, calling ESPN's heavy lean toward Kansas City a fair assessment.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Amid his Week 2 spread picks, Wright made a few straight-up calls: Jacksonville wins outright at Denver, Carolina wins at Atlanta, and he'd be stunned if Kansas City lost to Indianapolis. He also expected Zay Flowers and Ladd McConkie to sit out with injuries.
- Greg JenningsGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Jennings put the Cardinals up as his upset alert over Seattle, backed the Texans over Cincinnati and the Bears over Minnesota with chips, put two chips on Denver beating Jacksonville, and wrote a headline of the Packers beating the Jets; he also called the Bengals a playoff team and the Chiefs winners over Indianapolis.
- Kevin WildesGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsMiss · 0Wildes made the Jets beating the Packers his upset alert pick, arguing Green Bay's road losing streak and Jordan Love's recent interceptions will catch up with them.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Brew stood by the Lions as division winners and playoff team, picked the Texans over Cincinnati, the Bears over Minnesota, the Patriots to beat Pittsburgh with a solid Drake Maye game, flagged Jacksonville over Denver as his upset alert, and said he still feels good about the Ravens winning the AFC.
- Rich EisenGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsMiss · 0Eisen picked Josh Allen to lead the NFL in total touchdowns over any QB-WR or QB-RB combo, flipped from the Lions to the Bears as NFC North winner, and made several Week 2 game calls, including the Patriots at home, the Jets over Green Bay, and both LA teams winning. He also picked a Jaguars-Broncos AFC title game.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- John MiddlekauffSeason Win Totals · San Francisco 49ersClose · 60Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.
- Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · Denver BroncosMiss · 20Nick Wright gave his early AFC win-total leans: overs on the Jets, Ravens, Jaguars, Chiefs and Raiders, plus projected win ranges for the Dolphins, Texans, Chargers and Broncos, and predicted the Raiders take Ashton Jeanty at No. 6.
- Chris BrockmanSeason Win Totals · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Brockman pitched that the Eagles are the NFL's best team and that Saquon Barkley will win MVP as the first non-quarterback since 2011. He also declared the AFC playoff field already set with six weeks to go, said the Cowboys will make the playoffs, predicted Buffalo would blast the 49ers, and reiterated his earlier call that Carolina would win five or six games.
- JP AcostaSeason Win Totals · New York GiantsClose · 40Acosta expects John Harbaugh's Giants to jump to roughly seven wins in year one, and forecast several offseason moves: Aaron Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh, Daniel Jones returning to the Colts, Kirk Cousins being released by Atlanta, and Brandon Aiyuk leaving San Francisco.