Gregg Rosenthal · Apr 9, 2025

Rosenthal predicted Armand Membu could go to the Jets at No. 7, expects Josh Simmons to be picked in the first round despite injury and character concerns, and floated Donovan Jackson going to a team like the Patriots at the top of the second round. On win totals he leaned over on the Jets, Buccaneers, Lions and Chiefs.

“I really think he could go to the Jets at seven because they really need to know his bookends.”

said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →

7 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Mock Draft Picks Donovan Jackson New England PatriotsApr 9, 2025
“Wouldn't be surprised if a team like the Patriots one of those teams at the top of the second round that needs offensive lineman.”
Scored 67.71a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Donovan Jackson
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
67.71
baseline:
50
actual pick:
24
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
67.71
predicted pick:
top of the second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Kansas City ChiefsApr 9, 2025
“So the Chiefs always always disrespected at eleven and a half. I if you you bet the over for them every year, you'd be a rich man.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
naive:
11.75
skill:
0
what happened:
6
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Detroit LionsApr 9, 2025
“the Lions were only at ten and a half... I think I would I would lean towards the over with the Lions”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 45+30 skill
How this was scored
team:
DET
naive:
11.75
skill:
30
what happened:
9
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
45
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Tampa Bay BuccaneersApr 9, 2025
“The Bucks are at nine and a half... I'm definitely gonna be over on the Bucks.”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
naive:
9.25
skill:
-30
what happened:
8
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
75
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals New York JetsApr 9, 2025
“I think Jets over five and a half? That would be like, what are you thinking? For me? I think that get better than that.”
Scored 40a naive guess scored 25+30 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYJ
naive:
6.75
skill:
30
what happened:
3
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
25
predicted:
6
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Armand Membou New York JetsApr 9, 2025
“I really think he could go to the Jets at seven because they really need to know his bookends”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Armand Membou
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
7
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Josh SimmonsApr 9, 2025
“Someone's going to take a chance on him at some point, probably in the first round, maybe even earlier than people think because of the position.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Josh Simmons
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
32
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
probably in the first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?