Rich Eisen · Sep 8, 2025
Eisen agreed Josh Allen repeats as MVP and Buffalo takes the AFC's No. 1 seed, endorsed the Chargers as the AFC West team to beat and best week-one AFC team, called Derrick Henry a first-ballot Hall of Famer, said the Chiefs could start 1-5, argued the Giants should turn to rookie Jackson Dart, and pegged Emeka Egbuka as the current Offensive Rookie of the Year.
“So to sit here and say, this is an overreaction that he's gonna repeat as the MVP. And the Bills as the one seed... this is not an overreaction.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
8 checkable claims from this
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo BillsSep 8, 2025
Josh Allen to win MVP
“So to sit here and say, this is an overreaction that he's gonna repeat as the MVP... this is not an overreaction.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- false
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 8, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“one team that looked like a wild card team on on Friday night in Brazil”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- false
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksEmeka EgbukaTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 8, 2025
Emeka Egbuka to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“right now, your your offensive rookie of the year is Ibuka. Is Ibuka. Yeah. In Tampa who had two touchdowns”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Emeka Egbuka
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- correct:
- false
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsJaxson DartNew York GiantsSep 8, 2025
Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart
“I've been saying that for a month and a half, and now I am saying put the rookie in there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Jaxson Dart
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- naive basis:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsNew York GiantsSep 8, 2025
New York Giants to finish with 5 wins
“Now they're playing against a team that's gonna win, like, five games.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 65+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- naive:
- 5.75
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 4
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 65
- predicted:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Division WinnersLos Angeles ChargersSep 8, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to win the division
“The chargers are the team to beat in the AFC West. Oh, I agree with that.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Derrick Henry to make first ballot Hall of Fame
“Derrick Henry is a first ballot hall of famer.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldBuffalo BillsSep 8, 2025
Buffalo Bills to take the top seed
“And the Bills as the one seed One seed... this is not an overreaction.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.