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Rich Eisen· Sep 8, 2025

Eisen agreed Josh Allen repeats as MVP and Buffalo takes the AFC's No. 1 seed, endorsed the Chargers as the AFC West team to beat and best week-one AFC team, called Derrick Henry a first-ballot Hall of Famer, said the Chiefs could start 1-5, argued the Giants should turn to rookie Jackson Dart, and pegged Emeka Egbuka as the current Offensive Rookie of the Year.

“So to sit here and say, this is an overreaction that he's gonna repeat as the MVP. And the Bills as the one seed... this is not an overreaction.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 2 award picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick, 1 season win total and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 25.7 out of 100, against 22.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Seeding, Byes and Home FieldBuffalo BillsSep 8, 2025

    Buffalo Bills to take the top seed

    “And the Bills as the one seed One seed... this is not an overreaction.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    checked as:
    the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
    actual tier:
    visitor
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    where they finished last season (host)
    weeks in the season:
    18
    claimed seed:
    1
    claimed tier:
    bye
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Division WinnersLos Angeles ChargersSep 8, 2025

    Los Angeles Chargers to win the division

    “The chargers are the team to beat in the AFC West. Oh, I agree with that.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    LAC
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    won the division:
    no

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo BillsSep 8, 2025

    Josh Allen to win MVP

    “So to sit here and say, this is an overreaction that he's gonna repeat as the MVP... this is not an overreaction.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Josh Allen
    season:
    2025
    winner:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Playoff PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 8, 2025

    Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs

    “one team that looked like a wild card team on on Friday night in Brazil”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    KC
    skill:
    0
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive guess said:
    yes
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    made the playoffs:
    no
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksEmeka EgbukaTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 8, 2025

    Emeka Egbuka to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

    “right now, your your offensive rookie of the year is Ibuka. Is Ibuka. Yeah. In Tampa who had two touchdowns”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    offensive_rookie_of_the_year
    naive:
    the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Emeka Egbuka
    season:
    2025
    winner:
    Tetairoa McMillan
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Depth Chart CallsJaxson DartNew York GiantsSep 8, 2025

    Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart

    “I've been saying that for a month and a half, and now I am saying put the rookie in there.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    NYG
    skill:
    16.67
    player:
    Jaxson Dart
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    91.67
    position:
    QB
    naive slot:
    2
    actual slot:
    1
    difficulty:
    2
    measured by:
    passing yards
    the naive guess:
    no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Season Win TotalsNew York GiantsSep 8, 2025

    New York Giants to finish with 5 wins

    “Now they're playing against a team that's gonna win, like, five games.”

    Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 65+30 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    NYG
    naive:
    5.75
    skill:
    30
    what happened:
    4
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    80
    baseline:
    65
    predicted:
    5
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

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