Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Mike Renner· Jan 6, 2026

Renner picked the same AFC bracket as JP except with the Texans reaching the Super Bowl as a fifth seed, had the Packers beating the Bears in the NFC, and leaned Rams over Seahawks in the NFC Championship and the Rams as Super Bowl champions. He also gave a full post-season mock draft of picks 1-18.

“So because of all that, give me the Rams.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast) · read the original →

33 checkable claims — 18 mock draft picks, 9 game outcome picks, 2 conference champions, 2 positional finishes, 1 combine measurement and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 39 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

28 of 33 have settled so far, averaging 52.9 out of 100, against 41.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

33 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl

    “I lean the Rams. I think the offense at full strength is just too dangerous.”

    Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+50 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    50
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE,SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    yes

    Think this is wrong?

  • Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl

    “Texans making it as a wild card fifth seed to the Super Bowl.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE,SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no

    Think this is wrong?

  • Los Angeles Rams to beat Panthers

    “and I think the Rams beat the Panthers”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    LAR
    score:
    34-31
    skill:
    100
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CAR
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Los Angeles Rams to beat Seahawks

    “And then so it's seagulls, Rams. I have it being the NFC championship game... But if I had to pick, I lean with you, I lean the Rams.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    27-31
    skill:
    -100
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Green Bay Packers to beat Bears

    “I think the Packers beat the Bears... So I think the Packers win that one.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    CHI
    score:
    27-31
    skill:
    -100
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Pats

    “Jags over Pats”

    Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 22.92+10.41 skill
    How this was scored
    note:
    these two never played, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
    skill:
    10.41
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2025
    ceiling:
    66.67
    accuracy:
    33.33
    baseline:
    22.92
    opponent:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 8 won a game there
    weeks in the season:
    18
    right opponent:
    no
    weeks left when called:
    0
    picked won aplayoff game:
    no
    picked reached the playoffs:
    yes
    opponent reached the playoffs:
    yes

    Think this is wrong?

  • David Bailey to be picked at number 3

    “At number three... I have David Bailey, the Texas Tech edge going to the Cardinals.”

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    David Bailey
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    2
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29

    Think this is wrong?

  • Sonny Styles to be picked at number 12

    “Sonny Styles, the line back from Ohio State going to Dallas at 12.”

    Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Sonny Styles
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    80.52
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    7
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    80.52
    predicted pick:
    12
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29

    Think this is wrong?

  • Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    “Top five picks. I have it going. Fernando Mendoza from Indiana to the Raiders”

    Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Matt Moore to be picked at number 2

    “and then Dante Moore of Oregon to the Jets. I don't see that changing as long as those guys declare.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Matt Moore
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; later signed with KC
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • New England Patriots to beat Chargers

    “So that would be Pats over Chargers”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    3-16
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Trevor Goosby to be picked at number 6

    “It's get six through 10 where the Browns... Trevor Goosby, offense tackle Texas to me.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Trevor Goosby
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Bills

    “Jags over Bills”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    27-24
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    JAX
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Houston Texans to beat Steelers

    “Texans over Steelers in the wild card round”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    HOU
    score:
    30-6
    skill:
    100
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    PIT
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Houston Texans to beat Broncos

    “divisional round, Texans over Broncos”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    18-15
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7

    “I have the commanders going carnal tape, the Ohio State wide receiver at number seven.”

    Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Carnell Tate
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    87.81
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    4
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    87.81
    predicted pick:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Makai Lemon to be picked at number 16

    “16 Jets, McKay Lemann, USC wide receiver. I love this fit for forever.”

    Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Makai Lemon
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    84.09
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    20
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    84.09
    predicted pick:
    16
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jermaine McCrory to be picked at number 18

    “And I have Jermaine McCrory, the Tennessee corner going to Minnesota.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Jermaine McCrory
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 5

    “and then Keltrick Falk, the Auburn edge slash d t, and I have him going there to be a DT more so to the New York Giants.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Keltrick Falk
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    5
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Arvell Reese to be picked at number 4

    “Arbel Reese, the Ohio State linebacker slash edge going fourth to the titans”

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Arvell Reese
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    5
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10

    “And then last number 10 here. Caleb Downs, Ohio State safety is the Cincinnati Bengals.”

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Caleb Downs
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    11
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 17

    “17, I have Mansoor Delaine, the LSU quarterback going to the Lions.”

    Close · 62Scored 62.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Mansoor Delane
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    62.09
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    6
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    62.09
    predicted pick:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 8

    “Jeremiah Love going to the saints. No real explanation necessary there. It's Kellen Moore as your head coach.”

    Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Jeremiyah Love
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    80.52
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    80.52
    predicted pick:
    8
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 13

    “Jordan Tyson, the Arizona statewide receiver going to the Rams at 13.”

    Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Jordyn Tyson
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    80.52
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    8
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    80.52
    predicted pick:
    13
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Spencer Fano to be picked at number 15

    “And then Spencer Fanon, the Utah offensive tackle going to the Bucks at 15”

    Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Spencer Fano
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    77.11
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    9
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    77.11
    predicted pick:
    15
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 11

    “I'd get to 11 through 15 here. I have the Miami Dolphins going Kenyan, Saddiq, the Oregon tight end.”

    Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Kenyon Sadiq
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    80.52
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    16
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    80.52
    predicted pick:
    11
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl

    “the winner of this game is the Super Bowl champion... So because of all that, give me the Rams.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champion:
    SEA
    runner up:
    NE
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Rueben Bain to be picked at number 9

    “Reuben Bain, the Miami defensive end going to the Kansas City Chiefs.”

    Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.36 against a shuffle’s 50+31.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    31.36
    player:
    Rueben Bain
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    77.11
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    15
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    77.11
    predicted pick:
    9
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    81.36

    Think this is wrong?

  • Sonny Styles to post probably gonna run a four four at the combine

    “I guess six five, two forty and probably gonna run a four four.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jordyn Tyson to finish top 20 at his position, by receiving yards

    “you watch Carnel Tate's tape, you watch Jordan Tyson's tape... They they might never be top 10, top five wide receivers in the NFL... but they are top 20.”

    Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Houston Texans to beat Jags

    “and then Jags losing to the Texans. Texans making it as a wild card fifth seed to the Super Bowl.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Francisco Mauigoa to be picked at number 14

    “Francis Maui, Noah, Miami, offensive tackle going to the Ravens at 14.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Carnell Tate to finish top 20 at his position, by receiving yards

    “you watch Carnel Tate's tape, you watch Jordan Tyson's tape, and you just know those are number one wide receivers in the NFL... but they are top 20.”

    Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these