Daniel Jeremiah· Feb 27, 2026
At the combine, Jeremiah laid out his read of the top of the draft: Mendoza first overall to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets at No. 2, Ruben Bain to the Titans at 4, Cornell Tate to the Giants, Jeremiah Love in the 7-9 range, and Ty Simpson as the second quarterback taken. He also expects receiver Brandon Thompson to challenge the 40-yard dash record.
“I think David Bailey at this point in time is where I would peg them.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
8 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks, 1 combine superlative, 1 position order call and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 90.5 out of 100, against 47.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyNew York JetsFeb 27, 2026
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“I I tend to think if it's close, they probably go with an edge rusher... Like, I think David Bailey at this point in time is where I would peg them.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“So Fernando Mendoza will check the box... Well, I just think with the Raiders, it's we've you know, it feels like Mendoza is the guy there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Mock Draft PicksRueben BainTennessee TitansFeb 27, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 4
“Now, Ruben Bain, we had the discussion... the tape warrants being in that conversation right there... But that's where where I had them going.”
Close · 62Scored 62.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 62.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 62.09
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Position Order CallsTy SimpsonFeb 27, 2026
Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board
“I mean, I think Tysons is gonna be the second one, and I'm excited to see him throw.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 39.7+60.3 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 10 at random averages 39.7
- skill:
- 60.3
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 39.7
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 2
- predicted order:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Combine SuperlativesBrandon ThompsonFeb 27, 2026
Brandon Thompson to lead his drill at the combine
“these wide outs, Brandon Thompson's gonna, you know, challenge the 40 record”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Top Player ListsFeb 27, 2026
“he's my second overall player... I think he's my fifth overall player.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateNew York GiantsFeb 27, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked “drafted by the Giants in his mock draft”
“Why do you have the Giants snagging Cornell tape right now? Well, I go with the theory of you got a second year quarterback...”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveFeb 27, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “the neighborhood of 789”
“I I think he he's gonna park his car in the neighborhood of 789”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Kevin WildesGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsMiss · 0For upset alert Wildes took the Broncos to beat the Rams straight up in Denver and added the Jets to beat the Lions straight up.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Sherman picked winners and several exact scores across the Week 3 slate, favoring Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, the Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, the Giants, Jacksonville and Houston, and named Kenneth Walker his MVP.
- Colin CowherdGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0The co-host (identified only as "Mitchell") made his own Week 3 picks, including blowout wins for Seattle and San Francisco, Cincinnati 27-17, Detroit 37-13, Denver 24-21 over the Rams, and predicted Jonah Coleman takes over the Broncos' running back role.
- Tom PelisseroGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Pelissero said the Giants' upcoming schedule (home vs. Tennessee, Washington, home vs. Arizona) offers three winnable games even with a backup quarterback, and that Washington's Jayden Daniels likely won't be back for that stretch. He also expects the winless Commanders to fall to 0-3 against Seattle.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.
- Pat FitzmauriceMock Draft Picks · Makai LemonHit · 96Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30.