Daniel Jeremiah· Feb 20, 2026
Jeremiah says Fernando Mendoza is the best player in the draft and a lock to be the first overall pick by the Raiders, grades him behind the 2024 trio of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels, and outlines a mock draft with David Bailey to the Jets, Reese falling to seventh, Ruben Bain to the Titans, and Tate to the Giants at five. He also expects Ty Simpson to go outside the first round, names Brennan Thompson as the favorite for the fastest 40 at the combine, and expects Mendoza not to throw while Simpson does.
“In my opinion, I think he's the best football player in the draft.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
10 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks, 1 combine superlative, 1 position order call and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
7 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 83.9 out of 100, against 40.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
forty timeTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Combine SuperlativesBrenen ThompsonFeb 20, 2026
Brenen Thompson to lead his drill at the combine
“Who's who's got a shot to break the record for fastest 40? ... Brennan Thompson ... everybody has him as the clear favorite here to at least give this thing a run.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- of:
- 34
- drill:
- forty time
- naive:
- the middle of the pool (place 18)
- scope:
- WRs
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Brenen Thompson
- result:
- 4.26
- season:
- 2025
- combine year:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual place:
- 1
- claimed place:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonFeb 20, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “outside the first round” (picks 1–32)
“you don't have Ty Simpson being drafted in the first round. You have Mendoza starting the first round off and then zero quarterbacks in your two point o mock draft”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- outside the first round (NOT picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateNew York GiantsFeb 20, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 5
“And you think the Giants at five add him, for for Dart”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveFeb 20, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “lock first round grade” (picks 1–32)
“he is the one true running back, that's that's, you know, got a lock first round great across the league”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- lock first round grade (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseFeb 20, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 7
“and Reese drops all the way down to seven”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Position Order CallsFernando MendozaFeb 20, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board
“we've got, you know, only one quarterback right now that's, you know, for sure a lock first round pick”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 33.08+66.92 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
- skill:
- 66.92
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 33.08
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“He's the first overall pick. Correct? ... he's warranted to be the first overall pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Top Player ListsFeb 20, 2026
“You put out your, top 50 draft prospects ... you've got Fernando Mendoza one, and Jeremiah Love is your second best prospect ... Why do you have, Reese three and David Bailey four?”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksRueben BainTennessee TitansFeb 20, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked “to the Titans in mock draft”
“I think I had him go into the titans.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyNew York JetsFeb 20, 2026
David Bailey to be picked “Jets pick (No. 2 area) in mock draft”
“you've got the Jets having an opportunity to take either Reese or Bailey, and they take Bailey”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Kevin WildesGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsMiss · 0For upset alert Wildes took the Broncos to beat the Rams straight up in Denver and added the Jets to beat the Lions straight up.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Sherman picked winners and several exact scores across the Week 3 slate, favoring Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, the Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, the Giants, Jacksonville and Houston, and named Kenneth Walker his MVP.
- Colin CowherdGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0The co-host (identified only as "Mitchell") made his own Week 3 picks, including blowout wins for Seattle and San Francisco, Cincinnati 27-17, Detroit 37-13, Denver 24-21 over the Rams, and predicted Jonah Coleman takes over the Broncos' running back role.
- Tom PelisseroGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Pelissero said the Giants' upcoming schedule (home vs. Tennessee, Washington, home vs. Arizona) offers three winnable games even with a backup quarterback, and that Washington's Jayden Daniels likely won't be back for that stretch. He also expects the winless Commanders to fall to 0-3 against Seattle.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.
- Pat FitzmauriceMock Draft Picks · Makai LemonHit · 96Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30.