Daniel Jeremiah · Feb 20, 2026

Jeremiah says Fernando Mendoza is the best player in the draft and a lock to be the first overall pick by the Raiders, grades him behind the 2024 trio of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels, and outlines a mock draft with David Bailey to the Jets, Reese falling to seventh, Ruben Bain to the Titans, and Tate to the Giants at five. He also expects Ty Simpson to go outside the first round, names Brennan Thompson as the favorite for the fastest 40 at the combine, and expects Mendoza not to throw while Simpson does.

“In my opinion, I think he's the best football player in the draft.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →

10 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Mock Draft Picks Ty SimpsonFeb 20, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “outside the first round” (picks 1–32)
“you don't have Ty Simpson being drafted in the first round. You have Mendoza starting the first round off and then zero quarterbacks in your two point o mock draft”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
outside the first round (NOT picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Carnell Tate New York GiantsFeb 20, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 5
“And you think the Giants at five add him, for for Dart”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
4
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
5
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Jeremiyah LoveFeb 20, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “lock first round grade” (picks 1–32)
“he is the one true running back, that's that's, you know, got a lock first round great across the league”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
lock first round grade (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Arvell ReeseFeb 20, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 7
“and Reese drops all the way down to seven”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Arvell Reese
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
7
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Fernando MendozaFeb 20, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board
“we've got, you know, only one quarterback right now that's, you know, for sure a lock first round pick”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 33.08+66.92 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
skill:
66.92
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
33.08
position:
quarterback
class size:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Fernando Mendoza Las Vegas RaidersFeb 20, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“He's the first overall pick. Correct? ... he's warranted to be the first overall pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks David Bailey New York JetsFeb 20, 2026
David Bailey to be picked “Jets pick (No. 2 area) in mock draft”
“you've got the Jets having an opportunity to take either Reese or Bailey, and they take Bailey”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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Mock Draft Picks Rueben Bain Tennessee TitansFeb 20, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked “to the Titans in mock draft”
“I think I had him go into the titans.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Combine Superlatives Brenen ThompsonFeb 20, 2026
Brenen Thompson to lead his drill at the combine
“Who's who's got a shot to break the record for fastest 40? ... Brennan Thompson ... everybody has him as the clear favorite here to at least give this thing a run.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Top Player ListsFeb 20, 2026
“You put out your, top 50 draft prospects ... you've got Fernando Mendoza one, and Jeremiah Love is your second best prospect ... Why do you have, Reese three and David Bailey four?”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?