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NFL

Football pundits, and how their calls actually turned out. See the leaderboard for who is ahead, or dig into any single take below.

Takes logged
8,539
Graded
3,881
Pundits
343
Average accuracy
52.5

out of 100

Seasons in review

202520242023

How NFL calls land

Every graded call, bucketed by score out of 100.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it

Settled or waiting

3,881 / 8,539

takes graded

4,658 awaiting a result

The middle ground

The same graded calls, zoomed to the bands between the spikes — every take that earned partial credit.

Takes in each band

20406080
10 — mostly wrongscore out of 10089 — nearly right

1,344 graded takes land strictly between the extremes, and the shape has a story: the counts climb as the scores improve. A take that earns partial credit is far more likely to be nearly right than nearly wrong.

This is where the curve-graded kinds live — mock draft picks (914), season win totals (151) and positional finishes (130)the kinds where missing by a little costs a little, not everything.

Most-discussed players

All players →

The people pundits predict most.

Most-discussed teams

All teams →

The clubs pundits predict most.

Least-discussed teams

All teams →

The clubs punditry forgets. Fans notice.

By kind of prediction

How each is graded →

Average accuracy wherever anything has been graded, grouped by what the call is about.

The draft1,575 graded

The season race708 graded

Single games547 graded

Players and rosters697 graded

Awards and honors321 graded

Rankings and lists223 graded

Fantasy football68 graded

Who is beating the baseline

Full leaderboard →

Zero means no better than a naive guess. Shown once a pundit has 3 graded articles; every rating is provisional.

Every NFL take

3376–3400 of 3,881

  • Hit · 84Dan PizzutaTop Player Lists

    Week 10 Quarterback Rankings: 1. Lamar Jackson ... 32. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

    a naive guess scored 50+51.33 skillsaid Nov 6, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Marcus MosherPlayoff Picks

    Pittsburgh isn’t a great team, but it has a clear identity and should still wind up being a playoff team.

    Pittsburgh Steelers

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 15, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 90Marcus MosherPower Rankings

    Here is our full set of power rankings heading into Week 7: 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. New England Patriots

    a naive guess scored 67.38+37.28 skillsaid Oct 15, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 92Marcus MosherDepth Chart Calls

    It feels like it’s only a matter of time before Mason Rudolph replaces him in the starting lineup.

    Mason RudolphTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 100-13.92 skillsaid Oct 15, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Marcus MosherPlayoff Picks

    The Vikings are absolutely a legit playoff contender

    Minnesota Vikings

    a naive guess scored 0+172 skillsaid Oct 8, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Marcus MosherPlayoff Picks

    they look like a sure-fire playoff team this season

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 8, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 89Marcus MosherPower Rankings

    Here is our full set of rankings coming out of the fifth week of action: NFL Week 6 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. New England Patriots

    a naive guess scored 67.38+37.2 skillsaid Oct 8, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Marcus MosherPlayoff Picks

    Chicago might be the worst team in the NFC North, but this should be a playoff team this year.

    Chicago Bears

    a naive guess scored 100-172 skillsaid Oct 8, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Marcus MosherDepth Chart Calls

    coach Brian Callahan is adamant that Will Levis will start when he is 100 percent healthy

    Will LevisTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 8, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Dan PizzutaAward Picks

    Allen still has an MVP path, and he's at the point where even his "bad" games show his growth as a player.

    Josh AllenBuffalo Bills

    a naive guess scored 0+178 skillsaid Oct 2, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 85Marcus MosherPower Rankings

    NFL Week 5 Power Rankings: 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. Jacksonville Jaguars

    a naive guess scored 67.38+31.74 skillsaid Oct 1, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Marcus MosherTeam Draft Slot Calls

    The Jaguars look like a lock to pick inside the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft.

    Jacksonville Jaguars

    a naive guess scored 45.85+96.39 skillsaid Oct 1, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Marcus MosherPlayoff Picks

    Don't look now, but the Buccaneers and the Saints both look like legitimate playoff teams this year.

    New Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 100-189 skillsaid Sep 17, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Marcus MosherPlayoff Picks

    Don't look now, but the Buccaneers and the Saints both look like legitimate playoff teams this year.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Sep 17, 2024the article →
  • Close · 74Marcus MosherPower Rankings

    NFL Week 3 Power Rankings — 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. Carolina Panthers

    a naive guess scored 67.38+13.09 skillsaid Sep 17, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Marcus MosherGame Outcome Picks

    With the Bills up next, the Jaguars are looking at a possible 0-3 start.

    Buffalo Bills

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Sep 17, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 92Dan PizzutaDepth Chart Calls

    Malik Willis goes to the bottom, as he's expected to get the start for Jordan Love.

    Malik WillisGreen Bay Packers

    a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillsaid Sep 11, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 92Dan PizzutaDepth Chart Calls

    Justin Fields started for Russell Wilson in the opener, and the Steelers are preparing to start him again in Week 2 as Wilson recovers from a calf injury.

    Justin FieldsPittsburgh Steelers

    a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillsaid Sep 11, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 92Marcus MosherDepth Chart Calls

    It feels like it's only a matter of when, not if, Drew Lock will take over for Jones under center.

    Drew LockNew York Giants

    a naive guess scored 100-16.17 skillsaid Sep 10, 2024the article →
  • Close · 72Marcus MosherPower Rankings

    NFL Week 2 Power Rankings — 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. Carolina Panthers

    a naive guess scored 67.38+9.21 skillsaid Sep 10, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Marcus MosherPlayoff Picks

    The Chargers are still a year away from being a legit contender in the AFC, but they have the look of a potential wild-card team right away.

    Los Angeles Chargers

    a naive guess scored 0+194 skillsaid Sep 10, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 92Dan PizzutaDepth Chart Calls

    Right now, Jacoby Brissett is ranked, and Drake Maye is not. ... That's what the Patriots are hoping for until Drake Maye is ready to take over. ... he's a perfect bridge quarterback for the early part of the year.

    Jacoby BrissettNew England Patriots

    a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillsaid Sep 4, 2024the article →
  • Close · 65Dan PizzutaTop Player Lists

    NFL Week 1 QB Rankings — 1. Patrick Mahomes ... 32. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

    a naive guess scored 50+29.84 skillsaid Sep 4, 2024the article →
  • Close · 72Marcus MosherPower Rankings

    NFL Week 1 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. New England Patriots

    a naive guess scored 67.38+8.36 skillsaid Sep 3, 2024the article →
  • Close · 40Marcus MosherSeason Win Totals

    look for Josh Allen to find a way to post double-digit wins again

    Buffalo Bills

    a naive guess scored 35+10 skillsaid Sep 3, 2024the article →