An unsigned seven-round Jets mock draft projecting New York to take Ohio State's Arvell Reese at No. 2 and Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson at No. 16, followed by Ty Simpson, Brandon Cisse, Jalon Kilgore, Tyreak Sapp, Kaelon Black, Fernando Carmona and Trebor Pena.

10 checkable claims — 10 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 10 have settled, averaging 37.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Who this take is about

• Kaelon Black
• New York Jets
• Brandon Cisse
• Fernando Carmona
• Arvell Reese
• Trebor Pena
• Jalon Kilgore
• Tyreak Sapp
• Ty Simpson
• Jordyn Tyson

10 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Mock Draft PicksKaelon BlackNew York JetsMar 31, 2026

  Kaelon Black to be picked at number 179

  “Round 5 (No. 179 overall): Kaelon Black, RB, Indiana”

  Miss · 2Scored 2.12 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  45.24

  player:

  Kaelon Black

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  2.12

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  90

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  2.12

  predicted pick:

  179

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  95.24

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksBrandon CisseMar 31, 2026

  Brandon Cisse to be picked at number 50

  “Brandon Cisse's draft stock has cooled a bit in recent weeks, but he still seems like a likely top-50 pick.”

  Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  45.24

  player:

  Brandon Cisse

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  91.7

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  52

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  91.7

  predicted pick:

  top-50 (picks 1–50)

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  95.24

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksFernando CarmonaNew York JetsMar 31, 2026

  Fernando Carmona to be picked at number 228

  “Round 7 (No. 228 overall): Fernando Carmona, IOL, Arkansas”

  Miss · 2Scored 2.41 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  45.24

  player:

  Fernando Carmona

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  2.41

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  142

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  2.41

  predicted pick:

  228

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  95.24

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York JetsMar 31, 2026

  Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2

  “Round 1 (No. 2 overall): Arvell Reese, LB/EDGE, Ohio State”

  Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  45.24

  player:

  Arvell Reese

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  87.81

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  5

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  87.81

  predicted pick:

  2

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  95.24

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksTrebor PenaNew York JetsMar 31, 2026

  Trebor Pena to be picked at number 242

  “Round 7 (No. 242 overall): Trebor Pena, WR, Penn State”

  Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  45.24

  player:

  Trebor Pena

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  undrafted

  outcome:

  went undrafted in 2026; later signed with JAX

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  undrafted

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  0

  predicted pick:

  242

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  95.24

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksJalon KilgoreNew York JetsMar 31, 2026

  Jalon Kilgore to be picked at number 103

  “Round 4 (No. 103 overall): Jalon Kilgore, SAF, South Carolina”

  Miss · 6Scored 6.25 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  45.24

  player:

  Jalon Kilgore

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  6.25

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  167

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  6.25

  predicted pick:

  103

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  95.24

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksTyreak SappNew York JetsMar 31, 2026

  Tyreak Sapp to be picked at number 140

  “Round 4 (No. 140 overall): Tyreak Sapp, EDGE, Florida”

  Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  45.24

  player:

  Tyreak Sapp

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  undrafted

  outcome:

  went undrafted in 2026; later signed with CLE

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  undrafted

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  0

  predicted pick:

  140

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  95.24

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksBrandon CisseNew York JetsMar 31, 2026

  Brandon Cisse to be picked at number 44

  “Round 2 (No. 44 overall): Brandon Cisse, CB, South Carolina”

  Close · 71Scored 70.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  45.24

  player:

  Brandon Cisse

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  70.71

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  52

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  70.71

  predicted pick:

  44

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  95.24

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonNew York JetsMar 31, 2026

  Ty Simpson to be picked at number 33

  “Round 2 (No. 33 overall): Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama”

  Close · 42Scored 42.04 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  45.24

  player:

  Ty Simpson

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  42.04

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  13

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  42.04

  predicted pick:

  33

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  95.24

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksJordyn TysonNew York JetsMar 31, 2026

  Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 16

  “Round 1 (No. 16 overall): Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State”

  Close · 71Scored 70.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  45.24

  player:

  Jordyn Tyson

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  70.71

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  8

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  70.71

  predicted pick:

  16

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  95.24

  Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

• Judah FortgangGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsHit · 100
  An unsigned PFF top-down betting breakdown argues the Jets will beat the Titans in Week 1, reasoning that Geno Smith should face little disruption against Tennessee's weak pass rush while Cam Ward will struggle against New York's heavy man coverage.
• Bryan DeArdoGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsHit · 100
  The unsigned CBS Sports preview picks the Jets to beat the Titans in their Week 1 matchup in Nashville, reasoning that Geno Smith's track record gives New York the edge in a close, low-scoring game.
• Chad MillmanGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsHit · 100
  Millman backed several week one sides outright: Miami to beat the Raiders straight up, the Jets over the Titans, an underdog money line parlay of Houston and the Giants, and a favorites money line parlay of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit. He also stands by his preseason take that Drake Maye is a top-five NFL quarterback.
• Gregg RosenthalGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsHit · 100
  Rosenthal picks Eagles -4.5 over Washington, Bucs +3.5 in Cincinnati, and Steelers -3.5 over Atlanta, and adds extra leans on the Texans, Broncos, Saints and Jets.
• Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsHit · 100
  An unsigned CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night.
• Conor OrrGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsHit · 100
  Orr's Week 1 straight-up picks, including several upsets (Patriots, Buccaneers, Browns, Dolphins, Commanders, Broncos).

More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

• Rob RangMock Draft Picks · Jeremiah SmithMiss · 0
  Rang ranks the four headline prospects from the Texas-Ohio State game in the order he'd draft them (Jeremiah Smith, Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, Julian Sayin) and assigns each a draft grade: Smith and Manning as top-5 picks, Coleman top 10, and Sayin a third-rounder.
• Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · Brandon DoughtyMiss · 3
  Rosenthal gave first reactions to Vegas win totals: overs on the Steelers, Broncos, Vikings, Buccaneers, 49ers and Cardinals, unders on the Falcons and Commanders, plus he expects Shedeur Sanders to start about 10-11 games and thinks the Cowboys' 9.5 is beatable.
• Peter BukowskiMock Draft Picks · Gennings DunkerHit · 100
  Bukowski breaks down Iowa offensive lineman Jennings Dunker as a Packers fit and puts a late second-/early third-round grade on him, noting that range overlaps where Green Bay picks.
• David HarrisonMock Draft Picks · Eli HeidenreichHit · 100
  Harrison delivers his only first-round mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, projecting all 32 first-round picks (including several trades) plus the rest of Washington's projected class, while noting it is an exercise in what could happen rather than a firm forecast.
• Brian PeacockMock Draft Picks · Bud ClarkHit · 96
  In his final 2026 mock draft for the 49ers, Peacock projects San Francisco taking WR Kevin Concepcion (KC) at pick 27, then after trading out of round two, edge rusher Kieron Crawford and safety Bud Clark in round three, OL Trey Zune and RB Jonah Coleman in round four, CB Charles Demings in round five and guard Caden Barnett in round six. He also thinks Omar Cooper comes off the board before Concepcion.
• David HarrisonMock Draft Picks · Riley NowakowskiMiss · 13
  In his final mock draft Monday, Harrison has the Commanders trading back twice and selecting eight players: safety Dylan Thieneman at 16, WR Denzel Boston at 33, RB Mike Washington Jr. at 83, C Jagger Burton at 132, CB Julian Neal at 147, QB Cade Klubnik at 187, DB Lorenzo Styles Jr. at 209 and TE Riley Nowakowski in the seventh round.

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