Chicago Bears 2026 Outlook: The Field Is All-In on Caleb Williams and Almost Silent Everywhere Else
The Bears went 11-6 in 2025 and made the playoffs in Ben Johnson's first year, a 6-win jump off 2024's 5-12. That combination — young quarterback, new coach, sudden success — is catnip for punditry, and the database shows it. We hold 51 graded-or-pending claims about Bears quarterbacks, 84 about their receivers, 59 about their tight ends. We hold three about their guards.
This is the shape of preseason coverage, not a knock on Chicago. Here is what the field is actually saying, unit by unit, and how similar calls have scored when the results came in.
Quarterbacks
There is no competition, and nobody is pretending there is one. Jerry Markarian wrote of backup Tyson Bagent that "only one QB takes the starting reps when the games start to matter, and he won't be that guy for Chicago." The only real quarterback-depth call on file is Gene Chamberlain's late-August note that with Bagent hurt and Caleb Williams unlikely to play, "it should be Miller Moss time for at least a half" — a preseason snap call, not a season one.
What the field does have is a stack of bullish Williams takes. Colin Cowherd has now picked Williams for MVP repeatedly since mid-August. Danny Parkins predicted a leap to "top five quarterback in football" plus an MVP and a Super Bowl. Douglas Clawson has Chicago becoming the first team ever with a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard rusher and three 1,000-yard receivers. Chris Brockman went further: "5,000 total yards, 40 combined touchdowns."
The instructive part is last year's version of the same enthusiasm. Jake Ciely's call that Williams would be the first Bears quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards and 30-plus scores graded 97.1 on the yardage (he finished with 3,942) and 80 on the touchdowns. Brockman's 3,900-yard projection scored 97.87. The MVP picks all scored zero — Matthew Stafford won, and Williams drew 3 of 100 picks on the site's 2025 MVP ballot. Meanwhile John Middlekauff's September 2025 bust call — "I don't think Caleb is good" — graded 0 accuracy and −194 skill, the worst single Bears take we hold.
The dissent this year is priced, not existential: an unsigned FantasyPros projection pegs Williams QB12 against a QB7 consensus, "the widest [gap] among startable quarterbacks," while Pat Fitzmaurice says a high-end QB1 season is within reach.
The receiver room
Eighty-four takes, 12 of them graded, averaging 67.4 accuracy. Luther Burden III is the consensus breakout: Nathan Jahnke wrote that Chicago "cleared a path for Burden to become a full-time starter in 2026" and called him a value at a 5.10 ADP; Heath Cummings labeled him a must-draft; Simon Hunter likes the discount from the groin injury; a 13-writer CBS panel made him part of an All-Breakout team that included three Bears.
The contrarian lane is Rome Odunze. Dan Beyer had the choice of both and took Odunze: "I think people are sleeping on Roma Dunze." Mike Fanelli sees a possible top-12 finish at WR27 cost. Behind them, Jahnke has rookie Zavion Thomas "locked in to the fourth receiver spot" and Jahdae Walker fifth.
The running back room
Sixty-five takes, nine graded — and the only Bears position group with a negative average skill score (−6.96) despite 68.3 accuracy, which is what happens when everyone predicts the obvious. The obvious here is D'Andre Swift as the unquestioned 1A. Fanelli has written some version of "some believe that Kyle Monangai will replace Swift... however, there is nothing to suggest that it will happen" at least four times since mid-August. Andrew Erickson went further with an "RB1 breakout" call; Fitzmaurice prefers Swift to Quinshon Judkins despite the volume gap.
Monangai's injury moved the depth calls: Walt bumped him down a couple of rounds, and Mike Moraitis and Tyler Sullivan both have Roschon Johnson as the RB3. No fullback takes exist.
The tight ends
Six graded takes at 75.3 average accuracy and +50.25 skill — the most productive Bears unit for pundits so far, and the most crowded consensus. Derek Brown, third on the site's leaderboard, says Colston Loveland could "compete with Brock Bowers and Trey McBride for the TE1 crown". Fitzmaurice targets him in the fourth round; Ryan Conway says he "has a chance to be the overall TE1"; Curtis Hirsch cites a 90-catch, 1,068-yard projection. Albert Breer singled him out after camp as the offensive player most likely to break through.
The lone skeptic is an unsigned FantasyPros entry: "I love Loveland as a talent but am worried the market is overconfident in his role." The Cole Kmet subplot is live — NFL.com listed him among players expected to be released by cutdown day, and Pete Martuneac argued rookie Sam Roush's development "could even force the Bears into a tough conversation regarding veteran Cole Kmet's future."
The offensive line
Tackle is the one line spot with real punditry: 37 takes. Braxton Jones was the near-unanimous Week 1 left tackle — Gregg Rosenthal called him "probably the favorite" in July, Nick Shook said "that's probably Braxton Jones's job", and Kevin Patra, John Breech, Chamberlain and Adam Jahns all landed the same way. The split is about durability of the arrangement: Moraitis and Martuneac both expect Ozzy Trapilo to take the job once healthy, and Markarian framed Jones as "a quality placeholder until midseason."
Center resolved before it started. Patra: "Garrett Bradbury ran away with the starting center gig." Chamberlain called expecting rookie Logan Jones to unseat him "premature and unrealistic."
Guard is effectively unwritten: three takes, two graded. Joe Thuney's 2026 season has not been the subject of a checkable claim on this site.
The defensive line
Sixteen edge takes and 20 interior takes, and almost all of them are roster mechanics rather than projections — Moraitis listing Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker and Daniel Hardy as locks, Markarian doing the same for Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter Sr. and Neville Gallimore. The one genuinely bold call is Middlekauff's: "Max Crosby to the Bears" in a midseason trade. It is pending.
Sixth-round pick Jordan van den Berg is the camp story everyone agrees on — Breer noted he "seems to have already earned himself a role" — though Moraitis caps him "no higher than No. 4 on the depth chart." Nobody on file has projected a sack or pressure number for any Bears pass rusher this offseason.
The secondary
The injury churn produced volume without much conviction: 21 cornerback takes (2 graded, averaging 27.0 accuracy) and 18 safety takes. Rookie Dillon Thieneman starting immediately is unanimous, dating to Jourdan Rodrigue's draft-night call that he "probably will start for them immediately." With Coby Bryant hurt, Bradley Locker has JT Woods stepping in next to him; Chamberlain had Cam Lewis working there with the starters instead. At corner, Josh Edwards expects Tyrique Stevenson to hold CB2 over rookie Malik Muhammad "at least to open the season," while Martuneac listed Stevenson as a cut candidate.
Special teams
Two takes, total. Steve Krebs named Cairo Santos a late-round fantasy kicker target who could be "amongst the top 10 kickers in the league." There are no punter or long-snapper claims in the database, and the only return-game call is Chamberlain's judgment that Kaden Davis's second preseason game "was not that good" enough to win a roster spot. That is the honest state of it.
The rookie class
Ground truth on Chicago's 2026 haul: S Dillon Thieneman (25), C Logan Jones (57), TE Sam Roush (69), WR Zavion Thomas (89), CB Malik Muhammad (124), LB Keyshaun Elliott (166), DL Jordan van den Berg (213).
Thieneman is the one the mock-draft record can grade. Mike Renner put him at 25 in April and Daniel Jeremiah had him there back in January — both scored 100. The field's more popular Bears pick was Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, taken at 25 by Bucky Brooks, Nick Wright, David Harrison and Derek Brown; he went 58, and each of those calls graded 23.94. He sits third on the site's list of most-mocked-and-missed players: 10 mocks, average slot 21, actual pick 58.
Everyone after Thieneman is nearly invisible in mock form, which matches the site-wide pattern — first-round picks average 76.6 accuracy across 1,619 graded calls, round two 49.1, round three 38.8, and picks 176 and later 26.9. The in-camp takes are modest: Logan Jones behind Bradbury, Roush as "a capable TE3," Thomas as WR4, Muhammad and van den Berg as roster locks.
The overall outlook
Nobody is picking against this team. The explicit 2026 win-total calls on file:
Nick Wright is the high end: "If the easy stuff gets cleaned up, they can win twelve games." Veejay Huskey is the lone bear, at 7-10, calling them "a fallback team." Cowherd took the over on 9.5. All of these are pending.
Division picks skew Chicago too: Chris Brockman has them winning the North, as do Michael Irvin and TJ Jefferson; Seth Rollins went furthest, promising the NFC title game "if not the Super Bowl." Rich Eisen said on July 31 he'd pick the Bears to win the division again; by September 2 he had gone against his own room and taken Detroit, while still expecting every NFC North team above .500. Richard Sherman has them as a wild card behind the Lions.
Which is where the graded record matters, because the field was late on this team last year.
Twelve graded 2025 Bears win-total calls averaged 9.0 wins against an actual 11. Brady Quinn's 5-12 scored 0 accuracy and −30 skill; Rosenthal's under 8.5 — "going Bears under for the fourth straight year" — scored 40. Only Brockman and Andrew Santino landed on 11. The playoff and division calls, by contrast, were the site's best Bears work: 13 graded playoff picks at 84.6 average accuracy and +127 skill, five graded division picks at a perfect 100. Brockman's three Bears division calls all scored 100 — worth noting against his career 38.67 accuracy on 32 graded division picks.
The ceiling calls remain unpaid. All four graded conference-champion picks on Chicago scored zero; New England and Seattle played for the title. And the one graded Bears power-ranking claim we hold is LaVar Arrington's fourth-place NFC North finish, which scored 25.
Read the scoring methodology for how these numbers are built. Most of the 2026 calls above are pending; we'll grade them as the season settles them.