Kansas City Chiefs 2026 Outlook: The Field Missed by Six Wins Last Year and Is Backing Them Again

The Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 in 2025 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2009 in the site's records. Before that: 15-2, a Super Bowl appearance, and three titles in the Andy Reid–Patrick Mahomes era (2019, 2022, 2023). Punditry did not see the collapse coming. Thirteen graded win-total calls on the 2025 Chiefs sit in our database; the lowest of them was 10 wins, the highest 15, and the field missed by 6.3 wins — the largest collective whiff on any team-season we track.

That is the backdrop for a 2026 preview in which most of the same voices have Kansas City back in January.

Punditry on this team is also wildly lopsided by position. Here is where the 494 Chiefs-subject takes in our database actually land.

Quarterbacks

Sixty-six Chiefs quarterback takes, and almost all of them are one claim: Mahomes plays Week 1. The takes describe his injury inconsistently — "December knee surgery" in one, "torn ACL" in another, an Achilles in a third — but the conclusion is unanimous. Rich Eisen in March: "He's starting week one. Man. Hi. Hi. Hi. He's starting week one." Colin Cowherd, Mike Florio, John Middlekauff, Nick Shook and an unsigned FOX Sports report all say the same thing.

There is no genuine competition — the disagreement is about the September script. Chris Brockman went furthest in May: "Even if Mahomes is ready to start week one, the Chiefs to start Justin Fields for all of September." Tom Pelissero framed Fields as the contingency only: "if he can't, or if he's limited in the early going, we know exactly who it's gonna be."

Behind them, seventh-round rookie Garrett Nussmeier has generated a small roster-math argument. Chris Clark says Kansas City "has to keep three QBs at this point because Nussmeier shown enough that I think he would get claimed." Joshua Schulman agrees a rival would claim him, but says Reid would "probably feel more confident starting Fields over Nussmeier."

The scoring caveat: of 16 graded Chiefs QB takes, average accuracy is 36.2, though the average skill delta is +34.4 — these are usually claims a naive guess also gets wrong.

The receiver room

The largest and worst-scoring pile of Chiefs punditry: 133 takes, 49 graded, average accuracy 45.9 and a skill delta of -8.33, the only Chiefs position group where the field has done worse than baseline.

The 2026 consensus is a fade. Pat Fitzmaurice on Rashee Rice at WR12: "Now, Rice has an ADP of WR12 (30th overall). I'm fleeing at that price." Derek Brown — third on the site's leaderboard with a 35.62 MissedTakes Score over 114 graded takes — was blunter: "the guy that I'm avoiding like the plague is where she rice," citing Kenneth Walker III's arrival eating into the screen game. Josh Shepardson, Evan Tarracciano, Scott Pianowski and Nathan Jahnke all pile on; Simon Hunter simply said "fade rice."

The dissent comes from Andrew Erickson (22.08 score, 143 graded), who lists Rice under "Early-Round Values." Jahnke, meanwhile, likes Xavier Worthy — "A healthy shoulder and increased opportunity could position Worthy to lead Kansas City in receiving this season" — while Shepardson is avoiding both. Fifth-round rookie Cyrus Allen is the split decision: PFF's Nic Bodiford calls him "a candidate to take over as the Chiefs' No. 1 wide receiver in-season"; Fitzmaurice says he "appears to be no better than No. 4 on the team's WR depth chart."

The running backs

Ninety-seven takes, and the graded ones score worst of any Chiefs group: 35.2 accuracy, -36.5 skill delta on 22 graded calls. Read the 2026 chorus with that in mind, because it is a chorus. Fitzmaurice: "Walker should get a chance to be a workhorse for Andy Reid's Chiefs," and elsewhere he picks Walker as the league-winning back who ends Kansas City's 1,000-yard-rusher drought. Mike Harmon has him "handling his own dirty work at the goal line." Jahnke twice flags top-five upside at a 2.06 ADP. Derek Brown thinks he'll be "the engine of the KC offense."

Behind him, fifth-rounder Emmett Johnson is the near-unanimous backup — Jahnke, Fitzmaurice ("Kansas City waived Demercado Sunday, so Johnson is clearly the top backup") and Schulman all agree — with Jahnke adding that Brashard Smith may not survive if the team keeps three.

No fullback takes exist.

Tight ends

Thirty-three takes, essentially all about Travis Kelce, and the tone has shifted from production to valediction. An unsigned CBS piece expects him to clear "700 receiving yards with a few touchdowns"; another says he is "likely playing his final season." Derek Brown is the most bullish: "he's still gonna be a top twelve tight end. He's still gonna be probably a top seven guy." Matt Verderame ranked the tight end room third among Chiefs position groups and called Kelce "still top five in the league."

The one graded item worth flagging: Chris Welsh called Kelce a sleeper before 2025 and scored 100 accuracy with a +200 skill delta when Kelce finished TE5. Colin Cowherd's one-touchdown projection for Kelce scored 0 (he got five).

Offensive line

All the punditry is at tackle — 48 takes there, three at guard, one at center. Left tackle is settled: Josh Simmons "has a firm grasp as Patrick Mahomes' blind side protector." Right tackle is the actual question. Albert Breer from camp: undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson's "meteoric rise up the depth chart has created real competition... it wouldn't be a shock to anyone here if he wrested the job from Moore." Kevin Patra had Benson "poised to swipe the starting right tackle job." Joshua Brisco and Schulman both landed on Jaylon Moore instead after Benson's rough preseason.

Interior line: nothing checkable beyond Schulman noting a hip injury to "projected right guard Trey Smith" and a CBS grade calling trade addition Joshua Ezeudu "very much a backup." Graded Chiefs tackle takes score well (82.1 accuracy on 23 graded); the guard and center samples — one graded take apiece — are too small to mean anything.

Defensive line

Thirteen edge takes, 22 interior. Chris Jones is the whole story: Nick Wright is picking him for Defensive Player of the Year, and Verderame says "Chris Jones is still a top, what, three defensive tackle on football if he's not even the best." Middlekauff's February call that Jones "could be a trade candidate" graded at 100 accuracy — because he stayed, which is exactly what the naive baseline predicted, so it earned 0 skill.

The rest is roster churn: Emmanuel Ogbah named a likely cut by two CBS pieces, Felix Anudike-Uzomah judged safe by JC Pearson and Darren Smith, and rookie R Mason Thomas with, per Henry McKenna, "a direct path to a starting spot."

Secondary

Forty-four corner takes, eleven safety takes, and the corner ones are close to unanimous. First-round pick Mansoor Delane starts: "if Montserrat Delaine isn't a 17 game starter, something's gone terribly wrong" (Brisco); "plug and play starter" (Middlekauff); "No. 1 corner" (multiple). Verderame goes further — "I think he's going to be a star right away. I think he will be a Pro Bowl level player immediately." Schulman called the CB2 battle for Nohl Williams over Kristian Fulton in early August, and Fulton has since been floated as a cut candidate.

Safety is nearly empty: PFF projects Alohi Gilman as a starter, Pearson thinks Jaden Hicks "played his way in," and that is it. Of the 11 safety takes on file, seven are mock-draft picks about players Kansas City never took.

Special teams

One take. Chris Clark: "Butker needs a clean game, but I don't think there's any chance that he's doing anything other than kicking for Kansas City this year." The only other special-teams claims in the database are Clark predicting long snapper James Winchester returns (graded 100 accuracy, 0 skill — the naive call) and his worry that returner Andrew Armstrong gets cut "just because they don't have another returner." No punter takes. No graded return-game projections.

The rookie class

Ground truth first: CB Mansoor Delane (1-6, LSU), DT Peter Woods (1-29, Clemson), DE R Mason Thomas (2-40, Oklahoma), CB Jadon Canady (4-109, Oregon), RB Emmett Johnson (5-161, Nebraska), WR Cyrus Allen (5-176, Cincinnati), QB Garrett Nussmeier (7-249, LSU).

Two mockers nailed Woods at 29 exactly — the KC Laboratory show and Locked On Chiefs both scored 100 on that pick. Nobody in our database put Delane at six. Matty Lane named Woods the class's most likely All-Pro: "if you tell me one person from this chief's draft class goes on to be the best at his position in the NFL, Peter Woods, I think, is very clearly the top guy." Brisco says Kansas City's class "has an outrageous ceiling but won't replicate the 2022 class's depth." Schulman's summary: the Chiefs are "leaning heavily on rookies in 2026." Delane, Johnson and Allen all carry projected roles; Canady is projected to lose the slot job to Christian Roland-Wallace.

Overall outlook

There is no 2026 win-total consensus row on the site yet — nothing has resolved, so nothing has been graded. What exists is a spread of live calls: Nick Wright at 12-5 (repeatedly, and picking Kansas City to reclaim the AFC West), Moe Moton at 10-7 and the No. 6 seed, Cowherd around 10, Warren Sharp citing a 10.4-win projection, and Nate Tice and Hayden Winks both at 9 — with Denver and the Chargers ahead of Kansas City on their AFC West boards.

Playoffs are close to a lock in the punditry: Gregg Rosenthal, Cowherd, Chris Broussard, TJ Jefferson, Rich Eisen, Jason McIntyre and Wright all have them in, several of them while placing the Chiefs second or third in the division. Rosenthal is the contrarian on the division itself: "I didn't want to just answer like everyone else and go Broncos. I went the Kansas City Chiefs."

Now the uncomfortable part.

Every graded Chiefs division-winner pick from 2025 scored 0 — Eisen, Brockman, Wright, Kyle Brandt, Brady Quinn, Richard Sherman, Jefferson, Hunter, all of them, and all against a naive baseline that also said Kansas City. Every 2025 Chiefs conference-champion pick scored 0 too; New England and Seattle won the conferences. Wright's career division-winner line is 12.5 accuracy and a -45.46 MissedTakes Score over 14 graded calls; Cowherd's is 5.88 over 53. Rosenthal is 0 for 3 there, though his win totals (48.5 accuracy, +8.04 over 18) are among his better categories, and he was the site's Pundit of the Week for accuracy in 2026-W33 at 93.1.

None of that makes the 2026 calls wrong. It does mean the field's Chiefs forecasts have been, for two years running, the least profitable thing it produces — and this year's are numerically tamer. The most aggressive number on file is 12 wins; last preseason it was 15. See the scoring methodology for how these get graded when the season resolves.