Las Vegas Raiders 2026 Outlook: Everyone Has a Date for Mendoza, Nobody Has a Winning Record on This Team

The Raiders are 3-14 and 4-13 in the last two seasons, per the site's team page. They hired Klint Kubiak, signed Kirk Cousins, and drafted Fernando Mendoza first overall. That combination has produced a lot of punditry — and the site's records say the field has a specific, repeated problem with this club.

Start with the shape of it. Of the takes we hold on Las Vegas, quarterback is 241 of them, with 93 graded at 90.9 average accuracy. Wide receiver is 85 takes, 20 graded, average accuracy 30.4 and a skill delta of -37.2 — worse than the naive baseline. Tight end: 60 takes, 9 graded, 32.4 accuracy. Everything below the skill positions is a rounding error.

By claim type, the pattern is starker. Mock draft picks about Raiders players grade 81.7 on 126 graded calls. Season win totals grade 16.0 on 10. Playoff picks about Las Vegas grade 0.0 on 10 graded calls, with an average skill delta of -190. Pundits are good at guessing where the Raiders will draft and bad at guessing what the Raiders will do afterward.

Quarterbacks

This is where the volume is, and there is no real competition in the punditry — only a disagreement about the calendar.

The Week 1 job is treated as settled. Bucky Brooks on August 30: "He's just being very honest with where Fernando is in his development, and that's why Kirk Cousins is going to be the starter." Hondo Carpenter, unlinked on the site, wrote that Kubiak "made it clear - crystal clear... that Kirk Cousins is the starting QB." Damonza Byrd agreed with Ty Butler's "I think Kirk Cousins is going to be their week one starter." Michael David Smith went further, suggesting Mendoza "might start his rookie season as a third-stringer."

The interesting split is the handoff date:

• Gregg Rosenthal, September 3: "we'll only have to wait about four or five weeks till we see Mendoza."
• Ty Butler: Mendoza debuts in Week 8 against the Jets and "just carves them up."
• Colin Cowherd: "My guess is he starts somewhere, somewhere before Thanksgiving."
• Zachary Pereles, pushing back: "those 'he should start immediately' thoughts? Let's reassess in six weeks."
• Tyler Sullivan: "with a little more seasoning, he'll be QB1 by season's end in all likelihood."

Depth-chart calls are the one Raiders category the field actually wins: 9 graded, 93.5 average accuracy — though the average skill delta is -0.93, meaning those calls barely beat simply assuming the incumbent keeps the job. Rosenthal's own depth-chart record is 26 graded at 92.81 accuracy and a -2.22 score, the same story: right, but not more right than the obvious answer. Predicting *when* a rookie takes over is the part that carries actual risk, and none of these are graded yet.

Mark "Magic Mark" Willard took Mendoza for Offensive Rookie of the Year with admirable candor: "Whoops, the Raiders guy's name again? Mendoza. Let's go for the Raider." Worth noting how that class of pick went last year — the 2025 OROY ballot had five picks for Ashton Jeanty and five for Tetairoa McMillan out of 29, and McMillan won.

The receiver room

Two names, one job description: last option in a thin room.

Tre Tucker is the consensus No. 1. Nathan Jahnke read the preseason usage — "Tucker was among the Raiders' wide receivers who didn't play in this game, suggesting he is the top wideout" — and Frank Ammirante said "after digging into camp reports and preseason usage, it's clear that Tucker is the No. 1 WR." Andrew Erickson and FantasyPros both list him as a sleeper; FantasyPros called him "my favorite sleeper outside the top 40."

Jalen Nailor is the hedge. Derek Brown: "It wouldn't shock me at all if Jalen Nailor steps up as the clear number two option for the Raiders this season behind Brock Bowers through the air." Liz Loza was willing to say he "could open the season as the Silver and Black's No. 1 WR."

The site's graded history here is the caution flag: Raiders receiver takes average 30.4 accuracy across 20 graded calls, and the skill delta of -37.2 is the worst of any Las Vegas position group with a real sample. Brown's sleeper calls overall grade 52.25 on 41 graded, positive but modest.

The running backs

Ashton Jeanty is the most contested Raider in the database. Brown expects a bounce-back: "With Klint Kubiak in town... and improved blocking up front, Jeanty could be poised to post a strong RB1 season in his second season." Tom Strachan says "it's not hard to imagine a world where Jeanty is a top-five fantasy performer." FantasyPros' featured pros went the other way — "Ashton Jeanty will be the biggest bust of the season" — and Muntradamus cited the ankle and Mike Washington Jr.'s workload.

We can grade last year's version of this argument. Jeanty finished RB15 in 2025. Brown's "top three back" call scored 0 (skill -50); Erickson's identical call scored 0; Sean Kerner's top-five scored 16.67. Jake Ciely, who said Jeanty was "more of a back end RB one for me than mid first round," scored 75 with a skill delta of +100. The moderate take won. Shannon Sharpe's 1,500 rushing yards graded 30 against an actual 975.

On the backup, the field is unanimous and specific: Washington is the No. 2 and, per Jahnke, "could be the starter in Week 1" with Jeanty hurt. Pat Fitzmaurice calls him "the undisputed backup," Brown calls him "one of the best handcuffs in fantasy." No fullback takes exist.

The tight ends

Brock Bowers is the second-most-discussed Raider. Fitzmaurice, repeatedly: "The Raiders are talent-starved at wide receiver, so Bowers is poised to be their alpha pass catcher." Brown: "2026 Brock Bowers could be 2025 Trey McBride and be the runaway TE1 for fantasy." FantasyPros put a number on it — "1,000 yards, 90 catches, and 10 touchdowns" as a floor. Steve Krebs expects him "back over 100 receptions."

The dissent is about price, not player. Strachan, three times: "Whether you prefer Brock Bowers or Trey McBride doesn't really matter. Neither should be drafted this high." A FantasyPros pro called Bowers "my biggest bust candidate of the four, mostly because of the price."

Behind him, Jared Feinberg describes Ian Thomas as "the main backup to the two tight ends" and Ammirante likes Michael Mayer's standalone value because "we're also likely to see the Raiders deploy more 2-TE sets under Klint Kubiak." Tight end takes on this team grade 32.4 accuracy on 9 graded calls — a small, unflattering sample. Fitzmaurice's positional-finish record is 34.36 accuracy over 54 graded calls, so treat "runaway TE1" as an opinion, not a forecast with a track record behind it.

The offensive line

Thin but not empty, and unusually unanimous. Carter Landis: "Miller and Linderbaum are the only Raiders with guaranteed starting spots on this offensive line." Bradley Locker projects Kolton Miller and D.J. Glaze at tackle and notes Miller "has earned at least an 80.2 overall grade in five straight seasons." Ezekiel Trezevant calls the line "essentially settled."

The one live battle is right guard. Carpenter has flipped between Jackson Powers-Johnson and Caleb Rogers — "the battle for the starting RG spot... changes daily. If the season started today... I give the edge to Powers-Johnson" — while still expecting Rogers to "get starts before the season is over." Third-rounder Trey Zuhn III drew a swing-man projection from JP Acosta: "he's gonna be their swing tackle, swing guard."

Two superlatives worth logging for later: Carpenter calls Tyler Linderbaum "the best IOL in the NFL," Cowherd says "Linderbaum is second best center in the sport," and Pereles put Linderbaum on his All-Breakout team. None of those are graded yet. Raiders tackle takes: 6 graded, 60.5 accuracy. Guard: 2 graded. Center: none graded.

The defensive line

One player, one claim. Maxx Crosby.

Douglas Clawson: "close to 100 tackles and 15+ sacks as he wins Defensive Player of the Year." Henry McKenna has him leading the league in sacks. Fernando Alfaro-Donis expects "double-digit sacks in 2026" off injury. Brandon Carney: "Give me a motivated Max Crosby."

The site has graded this exact genre before, and it goes badly. Kyle Brandt picked Crosby for 2025 Defensive Player of the Year; Myles Garrett won, and the take scored 0. The one that hit was Dan Pizzuta in 2022 — "Maxx Crosby leads the league in sacks" — which graded 75 with a +150 skill delta because Crosby finished fourth after ranking 19th the year before. Raiders defensive end takes overall: 4 graded, 18.8 accuracy.

There is also a trade market. Danny Parkins: "I don't think he's finishing the season with the Raiders. So if he has a good September and is healthy, he gets traded for one first-round pick instead of two." Byrd sees the same slow start "to the point where they could be trading Max Crosby before the deadline." TJ Jefferson took the other side in March. Trade and signing calls about Las Vegas grade 9.1 accuracy across 11 graded takes, the worst type on the board.

Interior: Carpenter and Feinberg both like Tonka Hemingway as a rotational piece, with Feinberg cautioning "I don't expect Hemingway to be a starter right away." Two graded DT takes, both mock picks. One graded nose tackle take, scored 0.

The secondary

Genuinely thin. Gordon McGuinness and Alfaro-Donis both have Eric Stokes as the No. 1 corner — "now that he's gotten paid, the Raiders are depending on him to be their top cornerback" — and Rosenthal called the other side "wide open there at the cornerback two spot... I guess Darien Porter would be the favorite." Carpenter, in a claim we will happily grade later, calls Taron Johnson "the NFL's best CB."

The graded record here is six cornerback takes at 32.7 accuracy and five safety takes at 61.7 — samples too small to rank anyone on. Two 2027 mock drafts (Rob Rang, Mike Renner) already have the Raiders taking Notre Dame corner Leonard Moore in the top five, which tells you what those pundits think of this group and of the 2026 season.

Special teams

Almost nothing, and we will not pretend otherwise. Two takes, both from Carpenter, both about Matt Gay locking down the lone kicker spot: "there is no battle. Gay hasn't missed and is booming the ball like the seasoned veteran that he is." No punter takes. No long snapper takes. No graded return-game calls. That is the entire file.

The rookie class

Ground truth first — the Raiders' 2026 draft went: Mendoza (QB, 1), Treydan Stukes (CB, 38), Keyron Crawford (DE, 67), Trey Zuhn III (OT, 91), Jermod McCoy (CB, 101), Mike Washington Jr. (RB, 122), Dalton Johnson (S, 150), Hezekiah Masses (CB, 175), Malik Benson (WR, 195), Brandon Cleveland (DT, 229).

Mendoza at No. 1 was the easiest call of the cycle and everybody made it. Of the graded Mendoza pick calls, a long list scored 100 — Daniel Jeremiah ("This one you can write in Penn"), Rosenthal, Nick Wright, Ross Jackson, Todd McShay, Jordan Reid, Lance Zierlein, Acosta, David Harrison and more. Skill deltas ranged from 30 to 50, because a pick nobody missed earns little.

McCoy is the interesting one. The field had him as a first-rounder — Wright at 12 and 16, Renner at 16, Mel Kiper at 12, Field Yates at 12, Matt Miller at 12, Rosenthal at 31 — and he went 101 to Las Vegas. Those calls graded between 1.94 and 5.03. Acosta and Ollie Connolly both said McCoy would be the first corner off the board; he was the twelfth, scoring 2.21 each. The Raiders got, on the field's own accounting, the biggest value slide in their class.

The rookies drawing camp buzz: Cowherd said Stukes is "a first day starter"; Carpenter says Masses "has already secured a spot on the 53-man roster"; Logan Lazarczyk thinks sixth-rounder Benson "is an eventual starter at some point in 2026," while Walter Cherepinsky thinks "the Benson hype train is coming to an end." Washington's role is the class's most confident projection. None of it is graded yet.

The overall outlook

There is no 2026 win-total consensus table on the site yet — the season hasn't resolved, so nothing is graded. What we have is the ballot:

Rosenthal: "I think it might be tough for them to win more than five or six games because of the out-of-division schedule." Nick Wright, twice: "Last place, three and fourteen." Brooks defends 6-11. Carpenter stands by seven wins with 2028 as the playoff target. Jeremiah, back in March, went the other way: "that's a team that won three games... they're going to double their win total." Chris Brockman, also in March: "Raider nation is gonna be sniffing playoffs this year. Better than the Cowboys. 10 wins. Book it."

We have no division-winner or power-ranking takes on file for the 2026 Raiders — zero rows for both types — so anyone telling you the field has an AFC West read on this club is filling space.

The history is what should govern. On 2025, the packet has the field collectively missing the Raiders by 4.5 wins across nine calls — one of the six worst collective whiffs in the database. Individually: Wright's Raiders over 6.5 scored 20 four separate times (skill -30 each), his nine-win version scored 0, Aaron Schatz's 8.3 projection scored 0, Rich Eisen's nine wins scored 0, and Brady Quinn's 6-11 was the best of the bunch at 40. Every graded Raiders playoff pick — Wright four times, Jourdan Rodrigue, Simon Hunter, Eisen twice, Brockman — scored 0.

Wright's overall season-win-total record is 43.63 accuracy with a -10.42 score across 50 graded calls; his playoff picks sit at 40.71 and -9.09. Rosenthal's win totals are better at 48.5 and +8.04. But the direction of the error on this specific team has been one-way for two years: the field likes the Raiders more than the Raiders' results like the field. This year most of them have finally moved down. Whether that is learning or overcorrection is the thing we will grade in January.