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NFL

Football pundits, and how their calls actually turned out. See the leaderboard for who is ahead, or dig into any single take below.

Takes logged
8,912
Graded
3,881
Pundits
362
Average accuracy
52.5

out of 100

Seasons in review

202520242023

How NFL calls land

Every graded call, bucketed by score out of 100.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it

Settled or waiting

3,881 / 8,912

takes graded

5,031 awaiting a result

The middle ground

The same graded calls, zoomed to the bands between the spikes — every take that earned partial credit.

Takes in each band

20406080
10 — mostly wrongscore out of 10089 — nearly right

1,344 graded takes land strictly between the extremes, and the shape has a story: the counts climb as the scores improve. A take that earns partial credit is far more likely to be nearly right than nearly wrong.

This is where the curve-graded kinds live — mock draft picks (914), season win totals (151) and positional finishes (130)the kinds where missing by a little costs a little, not everything.

Most-discussed players

All players →

The people pundits predict most.

Most-discussed teams

All teams →

The clubs pundits predict most.

Least-discussed teams

All teams →

The clubs punditry forgets. Fans notice.

By kind of prediction

How each is graded →

Average accuracy wherever anything has been graded, grouped by what the call is about.

The draft1,575 graded

The season race708 graded

Single games547 graded

Players and rosters697 graded

Awards and honors321 graded

Rankings and lists223 graded

Fantasy football68 graded

Who is beating the baseline

Full leaderboard →

Zero means no better than a naive guess. Shown once a pundit has 3 graded articles; every rating is provisional.

Every NFL take

1526–1550 of 3,881

  • Hit · 100LaVar ArringtonGame Outcome Picks

    So they should beat the Raiders, they should beat the Falcons.

    Washington Commanders

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Sep 12, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0LaVar ArringtonGame Outcome Picks

    So they should beat the Raiders, they should beat the Falcons.

    Washington Commanders

    a naive guess scored 100-194 skillsaid Sep 12, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0LaVar ArringtonGame Outcome Picks

    Yeah, I mean, and they should beat the Bears... they should be able to beat them.

    Washington Commanders

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 12, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0LaVar ArringtonGame Outcome Picks

    you have delivered your six picks money line on the Saint... And it's gonna and they're gonna win. Hard to play in New Orleans

    New Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 12, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Jonas KnoxGame Outcome Picks

    Rightings Niners, Moneys three On the road, I'll take Sam Bran.

    San Francisco 49ers

    a naive guess scored 0+194 skillsaid Sep 12, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0LaVar ArringtonGame Outcome Picks

    It's my money line of the week, second one... money line in the Chiefs?

    Kansas City Chiefs

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 12, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0Jonas KnoxGame Outcome Picks

    I'll take Kansas City... If Patrick Mahomes is getting points and yes at home, I'll take the Chiefs... Well, then can I have money line the Chiefs too?

    Kansas City Chiefs

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 12, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0What's Wright with Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks

    I also spoiler alert don't think Kansas City is going to lose. And I think that the Chiefs being home dogs with Patrick being healthy is a slap in the face... But I think Kansas City is better than Philadelphia.

    Kansas City Chiefs

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 11, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100What's Wright with Nick WrightPlayoff Picks

    If you remember, I had a missing the playoffs, not having a bad year, but just being odd man out. And then they got Mike and I said, okay, I'll put him in the playoffs.

    Green Bay Packers

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Sep 11, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0What's Wright with Nick WrightPlayoff Picks

    The Chiefs aren't. That's fine, but go ahead and pencil the Chiefs in for one of the playoff spots.

    Kansas City Chiefs

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 11, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0Pat FitzmauricePositional Finishes

    I think the sheer target volume and catch volume Chris olave has is going to make him a wide receiver three, a playable wide receiver three all year long.

    Chris OlaveNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 11, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0Andrew EricksonPositional Finishes

    I'm going right back to the well here with Jalen Waddle. I still think that he can be a top thirty six receiver.

    Jaylen WaddleMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 11, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 86Andrew EricksonFantasy Rankings

    you got him three, you got him really high this week... Erickson has got him at eleven... Fifteen. You are not like out necessarily on Garrett Wilson... Ericson, you are right on consensus (Agbuka at twenty)... Ericson, you are the highest wide receiver twenty one... you've got him at wide receiver twenty six... Ericson, you've got him at thirty three

    a naive guess scored 50+69.29 skillsaid Sep 11, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 83Pat FitzmauriceFantasy Rankings

    You put him at wide receiver nine this week... You get to own him because you have him. At twelve... You have met number twenty five... Fitz has got him at thirty one... You've got him at wide receiver thirty... You got him right at the end of your wide receiver twos (Jamison Williams)

    a naive guess scored 50+63.74 skillsaid Sep 11, 2025the article →
  • Close · 64FantasyProsFantasy Rankings

    Here is our top twelve board... Jamar Chase coming in at number one this week in the consensus ranks, CD lamb Att two... We start with Drake London at thirteen... Ricky Pirosol at twenty four... We start with DJ Moore going up against Detroit DeVante Smith, Tyreek Hill. All the way down at twenty seven, Travis Hunter, George Pickens, Jacoby Myers, Jamison Williams, Debo, Hollywood Brown, Romadoonze, Jerry Judy, and Calvin Ridley.

    a naive guess scored 50+26.84 skillsaid Sep 11, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0John MiddlekauffMock Draft Picks

    And John Mattier is going to be a first round pick.

    John Mateer

    a naive guess scored 50said Sep 10, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0John MiddlekauffDraft Bust Calls

    if I was a betting man right now, I would say this is not gonna work. I don't think Caleb is good... you would put money on Caleb Williams not working out... worst case scenario, Kayleb Williams is a bust, which is a tough word to say when you draft a guy number one overall

    Caleb WilliamsChicago Bears

    a naive guess scored 100-194 skillsaid Sep 10, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0John MiddlekauffMock Draft Picks

    He will be in the Heisman mix, and he will be discussed as a top fifteen to twenty pick.

    John Mateer

    a naive guess scored 50said Sep 10, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0John MiddlekauffAward Picks

    Josh all and Lamar Jackson are gonna continue to rack up MVPs. I would be stunned if one of those two guys doesn't win the MVP this year.

    Lamar JacksonBaltimore Ravens

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 10, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0John MiddlekauffAward Picks

    Josh all and Lamar Jackson are gonna continue to rack up MVPs. I would be stunned if one of those two guys doesn't win the MVP this year.

    Josh AllenBuffalo Bills

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 10, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Andrew EricksonDepth Chart Calls

    if it's not week one, I think it he eventually will take over the a back role and it will be a one to two punch between Crosskey Merrit and Eckler

    Jacory Croskey-MerrittWashington Commanders

    a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillsaid Sep 7, 2025the article →
  • Close · 75Andrew EricksonDepth Chart Calls

    But yeah, he's going to be a starter. But and the Patriots may not have Christian Zales week one

    Dont'e Thornton Jr.New England Patriots

    a naive guess scored 83.33-16.67 skillsaid Sep 7, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 35Andrew EricksonPlayer Season Numbers

    What's Cooper Cup's line look like this year? ... Forty four hundred.

    Cooper Kupp

    a naive guess scored 78.71-87.6 skillsaid Sep 7, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Andrew EricksonGame Outcome Picks

    I think that they could win by double digits... So I think they're going to destroy the Tennessee Titans.

    Denver Broncos

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Sep 7, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 92Andrew EricksonDepth Chart Calls

    But I am an Or, and I think he's a starter. I mean he won the job or Van Jefferson

    Elic AyomanorTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillsaid Sep 7, 2025the article →